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December 15, 2014

Transaction Analysis

Looks Like We May/Det

by R.J. Anderson, Tucker Blair and Ben Carsley

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IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

TEXAS RANGERS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Acquired LHP Ross Detwiler from the Nationals in exchange for INF-R Chris Bostick and RHP Abel De Los Santos. [12/12]

A trade high in name value, but perhaps little else.

Detwiler is known better for being the sixth pick in the 2007 draft than for anything he's accomplished in the majors. His best season—from a production and quantity standpoint—came in 2012, when he tallied a career-high 164 innings and posted a 118 ERA+. Beyond that, Detwiler has rarely impressed.

It's not just statistics, either. Detwiler is fluent in fastball, throwing his low-to-mid-90s two- and four-seamers a combined 85 percent of the time in '14, including on 42 consecutive pitches during a relief appearance. Unfortunately, his arsenal is thin otherwise. Additionally, Detwiler doesn't have a marketable attribute to fall back on. He doesn't have outstanding control or command—he has problems repeating his crossfire delivery—and he doesn't miss a ton of bats or generate a crazy rate of grounders. Heck, he even has platoon and durability issues, having made three DL trips throughout his career.

So what do the Rangers see in Detwiler? Here's what Jon Daniels told MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan:

Daniels pointed to the success the Rangers have had with left-handers in their own ballpark -- C.J. Wilson, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and others -- and he is hoping Detwiler can do the same.

"From a scout's perspective, he is a guy who pitches off his fastball," Daniels said. "He has other pitches, but he is predominantly a fastball pitcher. You look at left-handed pitchers in our park who can sink the ball and move it around the strike zone; historically, it's a pretty good fit."

Daniels is correct about Wilson, Harrison, and Holland, but he conveniently excluded a few groundball-getting southpaws who languished in Texas, like Kason Gabbard, John Rheinecker, Robbie Ross, and Joe Saunders. Perhaps Mike Maddux can help Detwiler find a reliable secondary offering, or improve upon his consistency. For the time being, though, Detwiler is a back-end starter who belongs in the second group more than he does the first. —R.J. Anderson

Fantasy Impact
Ross Detwiler
All of his contextual factors are worse, of course, as Detwiler moves to the AL and a rough pitcher's park. The goodish news is that he's got a better chance to start in Texas than he did in Washington, seeing as the Rangers were tentatively planning on starting things called Nick Martinez and Nick Tepesch. Detwiler is only relevant in AL-only leagues or 20-team mixed leagues, but if you stream him away from home he could be of use. —Ben Carsley

NEW YORK METS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Signed OF/1B-R John Mayberry Jr. to a one-year deal worth $1.45 million. [12/11]

A necessary, albeit boring team-building move. Mayberry, 31 in a week, is a platoon player who is limited to the corner outfield and first base. Luckily, what he does well—pummel left-handed pitching—is something the Mets struggled with last season, to the extent that the Padres were the only team with a worse OPS against southpaws. To Sandy Alderson's credit, he's addressed that problem this winter by adding Michael Cuddyer (who posted the highest True Average against lefties last season) and Mayberry (who ranked 32nd). Mayberry won't play as often as Cuddyer, but he should find a spot in Terry Collins' lineup whenever a quality portsider is on the mound. —R.J. Anderson

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Acquired INF-R Chris Bostick and RHP Abel De Los Santos from the Rangers in exchange for LHP Ross Detwiler. [12/12]

This isn't the first trade rodeo for the second baseman. Bostick was dealt to Texas in the package that sent Craig Gentry to Oakland, and now departs from the Rangers' organization after just one season.

Bostick is not a flashy player, with a small frame that is likely maxed out. He isn't highly athletic, but shows good agility and can have bursts of speed rather than being a true burner—he routinely clocks in the 4.20-4.30 range from home to first. Defensively, Bostick is an adequate option at second base, but lacks the range, athleticism, and arm to play as a utility option around the diamond. At the plate, he shows a swing with minimal movement in the hands, loose and fluid through the zone. He only has average bat speed, but is able to spray the ball efficiently around the field (though there is concern about his poor extension range, which leaves him exposed on the outside portion of the plate).

While the bat has potential to hit for average, Bostick is susceptible to above-average off-speed pitches and has displayed trouble catching up with plus velocity. The bat has surprising pop for a small-stature player, but not enough to provide more than 8-to-10 home run potential in the majors. Overall, Bostick has the ability to play as a second-division talent, but likely settles is as a bench option who can start in spurts.

De Los Santos, a Dominican righty, devoured the Sally and Carolina Leagues in 2014, posting a 1.96 ERA through 56 innings. He has one thing for certain—a heater—and he isn't afraid to use it. His fastball routinely clocks from 91-95 mph, and has topped 96 at times. While De Los Santos has good feel for the pitch, along with a clean arm action, the secondary arsenal lags behind and could cause his role to come in middle relief rather than as an impact arm in the later innings.

De Los Santos has endured a slow development path, but the light seems to have flickered in 2014, and the Nationals are ready to take a flier on him in case he is truly a late bloomer. —Tucker Blair


R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here
Tucker Blair is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Tucker's other articles. You can contact Tucker by clicking here
Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here

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