CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here to subscribe
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/11)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Ame... (12/10)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Sho... (12/12)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/11)

December 11, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Jose Quintana, Forever Underrated

by Matt Collins

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Chris Sale is going to be the ace. He’s going to be the guy everyone targets early in fantasy drafts to head their rotation. Jeff Samardzija is the newcomer, coming off a great season, and the signal that the White Sox are, in fact, “going for it.” He will grab headlines, and may be targeted a little earlier in drafts than he ought to. These are the two who are going to demand all of the focus in the White Sox’s rotation, the ones everyone will talk about. I implore you, though, do not forget about Jose Quintana. One of the more underrated pitchers in the game, he’s done nothing but put up consistently solid numbers in his short career. No, he’s not going to anchor anyone’s rotation, but as someone who is projected to be a late-round pick, he can provide huge value in that spot.

The number one thing Quintana is going to give you is a solid ERA, despite pitching in a horrific park for pitchers. Over his three-year career, the lefty has put up a 3.50 ERA, a number that puts him in the same breath as Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, and Matt Moore. He took a big step forward last year as well, with a 3.21 ERA (30th best in MLB) supplemented by a 2.81 FIP (10th best in MLB). Now, it needs to be mentioned that part of that success was due to a 3.5 percent HR/FB rate that will almost certainly rise. However, that should be offset by his career-high BABIP falling back towards his career norms, as well as his ever-improving walk and ground ball rates. For those reasons, we have plenty of reasons to believe in his WHIP. He’s able to keep guys off the bases not only by throwing strikes, but throwing effective strikes. Quintana has become a master of pounding the low part of the strike zone, as we can see here:

This is a perfect example of how to pitch in a place like U.S. Cellular Field. That kind of zone profile is going to lead to a lot of ground balls, which may turn into singles, but it’ll keep his ERA low.

Though he won’t lead any quality fantasy rotation in strikeouts, Quintana isn’t going to hurt anyone in that category, either. In the last two years, he has set down just over 20 percent of the batters he has faced, with an average of 171 Ks per year. That second number is actually 24th best, by the way. The reason for that is durability. While his rates aren’t going to be Earth-shattering, he’s shown a clear ability to take the ball every five days, which is obviously paramount in compiling counting stats. Now, many will point to Quintana’s below-average whiff rate, which is certainly concerning. However, he gets guys to look at strikes at a very high rate (30 percent in 2014), and pounds the strike zone, especially on the first pitch. If you are starting two-thirds of at bats with an 0-1 count, you’re going to get plenty of token strikeouts.

Of course, what has killed Quintana in the last few years has been his low win totals. He’s yet to crack double digits in wins in his career. Considering what the White Sox have done so far this offseason, that should change. For one thing, the addition of Adam LaRoche should help to add some extra run support. That likely isn’t the end of the lineup improvements, either, as they are clearly trying to build a playoff contender this year. The big key, though, is the improvement of the bullpen. In 2014, no relief unit compiled more losses than Chicago’s, and just two bullpens posted a higher ERA. That is a less-than-ideal scenario for a starting pitcher to be put into. Now, they have a legitimate relief ace in David Robertson to finish off games. It’s not just him, either. They also just brought in Zach Duke, who is coming off an extremely impressive 2014 campaign. With the improved bullpen, and the assumption that more moves are to come as Rick Hahn pushes his chips in for a 2015 run, there is little doubt that Quintana can reach double digit wins next year, probably pushing that number closer to 15.

For some reason that eludes me, the Jose Quintana remains one of the more underrated pitchers in the game, in both real life and fantasy. I mean, at one point last year he was owned in just 38 percent of ESPN leagues, which is pure insanity. If that means that he can be had in one of the final rounds of drafts next year, he is setting himself up for some ridiculous value, as a top-30 finish isn’t out of the question, and a spot in the top 40 is downright probable. With the White Sox getting closer to the national spotlight, this may be the last year that Quintana is under the radar, so jump on the bandwagon while you still can.

Matt Collins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here

Related Content:  Fantasy,  Jose Quintana

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/11)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Ame... (12/10)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Sho... (12/12)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/11)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Playoff Prospectus: Come Undone
BP En Espanol: Previa de la NLCS: Cubs vs. D...
Playoff Prospectus: How Did This Team Get Ma...
Playoff Prospectus: Too Slow, Too Late
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and NLCS Gam...
Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Cubs vs. D...

MORE FROM DECEMBER 11, 2014
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Night the Dodgers ...
Premium Article Before They Were Pros
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Yoenis Cespedes Is Always Goo...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Cubs Finally Land ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Antonio Bastardo T...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: League-Worst Bullpen N...

MORE BY MATT COLLINS
2015-01-06 - Fantasy Article Tale of the Tape: Russell Martin vs. Salvado...
2014-12-29 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
2014-12-18 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Don't Forget the Vets
2014-12-11 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Jose Quintana, Forever Un...
2014-12-01 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
2014-11-25 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Christian Yelich is Poise...
2014-11-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: Cleveland Indians
More...

MORE FANTASY FREESTYLE
2014-12-17 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Undervalued NL Starting P...
2014-12-16 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The Trouble With Tiers
2014-12-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Shortening Your Dynasty R...
2014-12-11 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Jose Quintana, Forever Un...
2014-12-10 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: American League Speed Opt...
2014-12-09 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Is Yordano Ventura Overra...
2014-12-05 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The Moderate Rebuild
More...