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November 13, 2014
Hot Stove Scouting Report
Justin Masterson
by Mark Anderson
Justin Masterson
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Born: 03/22/1985 (Age: 29) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6-6 |
Weight: 250 |
Relatively simple; gets to balance point consistently with easy rocker step; lead foot lands in the same spot consistently; arm speed appears diminished from 2013 exposure; arm drags behind body, particularly in stretch; delivery is similar from balance point in windup and kick in stretch; follow through from release is inconsistent and will fall off hard to first-base side at times; varies movement toward plate in stretch from standard kick to shorter slide step; ranged from 1.27-1.56 to plate; delivery needs consistency to allow for improvement in game. |
45; #5 starter or swing man |
1-2 |
50; #4 starter; has raw ingredients to regain some of prior success and eat innings in MLB rotation. |
Fastball |
45 |
88-91 |
94 |
Offers traditional four-seam fastball and sinking two-seamer that loses 2-3 mph from four-seam variety; four-seam offering has singular plane to plate because of low arm slot, and can easily be seen by hitters; frequently squared in all outings; backed off four-seam pitch later in year and didn't throw as regularly, relying more heavily on two-seam fastball; good sink to two-seamer with ability to induce weak contact; showed some aptitude for varying velocity from 85-89 mph with two-seam; more effective in 87-88 mph range with a little more sharpness to sink; Overall velo dip from 2013 levels where four-seam sat 92-93 and two-seam sat 90-92; dip in velocity resulted in reduced effectiveness with pitch and must be recovered to regain overall positive impact on game. |
Slider |
55 |
79-81 |
|
Occasionally sharp with vertical movement; movement doesn't match arm angle and release point, both of which suggest more horizontal movement over vertical movement; break is short but enough to miss the center of the barrel; short break necessitates pitch being started in the zone and typically staying in or very close to the strike zone; lacked dramatic break of two previous seasons but was still only consistent offering that could keep hitters off balance; tried to rely on the pitch too frequently at times and would get barreled more consistently; above-average offering that can compliment fastball very well if velocity returns to allow fastball to stand on its own. |
Changeup |
40 |
84-86 |
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Threw at greater frequency in 2014 versus 2013; quality of pitch was still decidedly below average; consistently slowed arm when throwing of changeup; gave pitch away and slower arm appeared to decrease overall effectiveness of pitch; when thrown with conviction and arm speed, pitch will feature good rotation and some sink; increased frequency did not appear to result in improved quality over the course of the season; showed some feel for mixing pitch to his advantage to help induce weak contact, but infrequent quality did not support sequencing of pitch; clearly below average and in need of additional work if usage patterns are to continue. |
|
vs LHH |
vs RHH |
|
SI |
FA |
SL |
CH |
SI |
SL |
FA |
CH |
Usage |
47.75% |
40.02% |
11.98% |
0.25% |
58.14% |
25.00% |
16.67% |
0.19% |
Strike |
61.21% |
61.57% |
58.87% |
0.00% |
63.36% |
56.44% |
65.91% |
100.00% |
Swing / Miss |
8.54% |
4.88% |
13.48% |
0.00% |
11.73% |
18.18% |
5.11% |
0.00% |
* Only showing top 5 pitches by pitch count. Stats are for the 2014 season
Attacks the zone with two primary pitches—fastball and slider; has shown ability to throw consistent strikes with all pitches in the past (51.4% in 2013), but regressed in this regard in 2014 (47.7%); worked slowly between pitches and rarely seemed truly comfortable on the mound this year; still attempted to attack the strike zone but could not always execute; lacked attempts at challenging inside with pitches and was rarely successful when he tried to move the fastball to the inner third; needs to regain strike-throwing ability that should enable him to be more aggressive in all parts of the strike zone, as well as out of the strike zone.
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Confident on the mound; carries himself with professionalism one would expect of a seven-year veteran; shows some frustration on the bump, mostly with himself, but controls aggravation well and regains composure quickly; displays quality makeup on field.
|
Slider is still a high-quality offering; calm, cool and collected on the mound; big, durable frame with good strength; track record of durability and chewing up quality innings; movement on fastball can be occasional strength but was not consistent in 2014.
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Fastball velocity backed up in 2014 and was not the type of pitch that could consistently beat MLB hitters; changeup remains below average; command and control regressed and was a weakness in 2014; arm speed and ability to keep arm with rest of body throughout delivery must improve/return going forward.
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Assuming minimal improvement in ability to command fastball, hitters can remain patient and wait for fringy fastball to come into prime hitting zone, or wait for a walk; have to lay off slider as the pitch represents his only reliable offering; hitters should attack changeup if identified and left up in the strike zone; pitches above mid-thigh can be lifted and driven with authority consistently due to lack of movement in 2014 sample.
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Will pitch entire 2015 season at 30-years old; potential bargain on the free agent market; experienced somewhat mysterious drop in velocity in 2014 and if only temporary could result in a strong resurgence during the coming season; worthwhile gamble for any team looking for options at the back of the rotation, and may have even greater likelihood of success if tasked with navigating National League lineups; for relatively minimal cost and likely short-term contract, Masterson represents a low-risk, high-reward signing.
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Mark Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Retrospective Player V... (11/13)
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Baseball's Seven Wonde... (11/13)
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Before the Price deal, I was intrigued by what Jeff Jones could to with this guy.
In a way I still am.