November 4, 2014

Painting the Black

The Free Agent 50

by R.J. Anderson

Another year, another top-50 list. Here are three things to remember while reading through the rankings: 1) international free agents were excluded on the principle that if I haven't seen them in some manner or another, then I don't feel comfortable ranking them; 2) "Randy" is a random number generator whose predictions were made by pairing integers with teams (e.g. the number 1 and the Angels); and 3) the list is ordered based on expected AAV with some other considerations (learned from past lists) factored in:

1. Max Scherzer

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 30

Three-year average: 207 IP, 127 ERA+, 4.04 SO/BB

Observations: Scherzer is overpowering, consistent, and hard-working; what else could you ask for in a top-of-the-rotation pitcher? He ranks sixth in ERA+ and seventh in FIP among starters over the past three seasons, and has the stuff to support the numbers. His fastball-changeup combination is very good and his breaking balls aren't half bad, either. Plus, Scherzer even shows some feel for selecting Halloween costumes. The only things you can knock him for these days are his kind's tendency to get hurt and his sometimes-off command—but then, isn't that true of all pitchers?

Prediction: Red Sox. Boston seems all but certain to land a top-three pitcher. Why not grab the best one?

Randy's prediction: Royals

2. Jon Lester

Position (Bats): LHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 213 IP, 111 ERA+, 3.08 SO/BB

Observations: Lester isn't overpowering like Scherzer, but he's durable and intelligent. He uses his three main pitches—fastball, cutter, curveball—well and the arsenal plays deeper than it is due to his command, which allows him to open doors batters would prefer remain closed. Lester is coming off a fantastic walk year, so it's possible the market rewards him even beyond the no. 2 ranking. Nonetheless, he's a capable top-of-the-rotation arm and will get paid like one.

Prediction: Cubs. The Boston ties between Lester and Chicago's management team make it such an obvious fit that there's no way it happens.

Randy's prediction: Tigers

3. Hanley Ramirez

Position (Bats): SS (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 505 PA, .285/.356/.486, 133 OPS+

Observations: The first polarizing player on the list. Ramirez remains an asset at shortstop, where his middle-of-the-order bat atones for his substandard glove, but there are reasons for interested teams to pause. The concerns begin with his health, as Ramirez hasn't played in more than 100 games in back-to-back seasons since 2009-2010. Whispers about his makeup persist, and it's possible he pouts if/when his next team moves him to third base. Even his bat has some waver to it, with his power numbers varying over the past few years. Because Ramirez is one of the game's best-hitting shortstops, he's getting paid anyway—just don't be surprised if teams avoid making too long of a commitment to him.

Prediction: Dodgers. Maybe the Yankees, Mariners, Tigers, or some other rich team with a seeming need at shortstop throw money at Ramirez to snatch him away. Until it happens, the Dodgers are the favorite to retain his services.

Randy's prediction: Astros

4. James Shields

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 33

Three-year average: 228 IP, 121 ERA+, 3.52 SO/BB

Observations: The most durable pitcher on the market. Shields is one of just three starters to throw 200-plus innings in each season since 2007, alongside Justin Verlander and Mark Buehrle. He's more than a boring, innings-eating, back-end type, as his deep arsenal includes multiple high-quality offerings—in particular, his changeup, which is among the game's best. Factor in his outstanding right-handed pickoff move and his willingness to mentor young pitchers, and there's a lot to like here. If there is a flaw, besides the obvious age- and position-related hazards, it's his tendency to battle with his delivery, leading to shaky command and home run flurries. Otherwise, Shields is a good fit anywhere.

Prediction: Angels. Shields attended high school about an hour and a half from Angels Stadium. That means nothing if the Cubs or Marlins offer him more money, but for now Los Angeles is a logical fit.

Randy's prediction: Pirates

5. Pablo Sandoval

Position (Bats): 3B (S)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 28

Three-year average: 555 PA, .280/.335/.424, 116 OPS+

Observations: What teams will have to ask themselves is just how will the pudgy Sandoval age? He's tied for the heaviest player to appear in 700 or more games at third base, and the other guy was Scott Rolen, who was a full five inches taller. (Let's not ignore that listed weights are more art than science anyway.) If teams are as comfortable with Sandoval's weight as they were with Prince Fielder's, then his status as the youngest player available in the top 10 could earn him a greater payday than his ranking indicates. There are some other nits to pick here: He's better from the left side than the right, he has a history of durability issues, and he could have to move to first base in time. Still, he's a pretty good player at a position that's tough to fill. That's going to get him paid.

Prediction: Giants. It's Brian Sabean following a World Series win. Come on.

Randy's prediction: Rockies

6. Russell Martin

Position (Bats): C (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 32

Three-year average: 484 PA, .241/.345/.402, 108 OPS+

Observations: Easily the best catcher available. Martin is coming off a banner year offensively, during which he continued to display strong defensive skills. Add in his oft-praised leadership qualities, and he's the total package. Yet there are some drawbacks to his game. Most notably, Martin has topped 500 plate appearances just once in the past five seasons. There's also the nasty little matter of how catchers tend to age poorly. Martin will get a big deal due to the lack of alternatives, but the end of the deal could be viewed negatively in time.

Prediction: Rangers. Jon Daniels needs a backstop and who better to fill that need than Martin? As an added bonus, Martin is reunited with Jeff Banister. .

Randy's prediction: Pirates

7. Victor Martinez

Position (Bats): DH (S)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 36

Three-year average: 654 PA, .317/.381/.495, 139 OPS+ (missed 2012 due to injury)

Observations: Though he's caught a handful of times the past two years, and appeared in more than 30 games at first base last season, Martinez's appeal boils down to his bat. Paying one-dimensional players big money as they enter their late 30s is tricky. But Martinez, who just set a career high in home runs, seems like a decent bet to keep hitting. It's not just the power, either. Martinez is well rounded from both sides of the plate and would be more accurately described as a good hitter with power rather than a good power hitter. Weirder things have happened, but teams should be comfortable giving Martinez a two-year deal.

Prediction: White Sox. The word is Chicago will pursue Martinez aggressively. Whether that's enough to tempt him away from Detroit is anyone's guess.

Randy's prediction: Rays

8. Nelson Cruz

Position (Bats): OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 34

Three-year average: 592 PA, .266/.327/.497, 122 OPS+

Observations: Many of the criticisms that were true about Cruz last year remain so today. He's not a good defensive outfielder anymore, despite a strong arm, and there's a generous amount of swing-and-miss in his game. Besides, he does most of his damage against left-handed pitchers. Yet as Cruz showed last season, he can still help a lineup thanks to his impressive raw strength. He's an offensive-only player for the most part, but so long as he's hitting and healthy (which is the bigger concern), that's going to be enough for teams to give him a spot in the lineup.

Prediction: Orioles. Why break up a good thing?

Randy's prediction: Astros

9. Melky Cabrera

Position (Bats): OF (S)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 30

Three-year average: 498 PA, .311/.357/.453, 126 OPS+

Observations: With the PED- and injury-related issues from 2012-13 behind him, Cabrera went on to have another good season, his third in four tries. He's not a skilled defender, meaning he's restricted to left field, where his bat has to deliver for him to have value. Luckily for Cabrera, he's an able switch-hitter, albeit one who relies heavily on hitting for average. He won't walk or strike out often, and he does expand his zone a little more than you'd like, but there's just enough power here to prevent him from being known as an empty average guy. Expect some teams to have concerns about his durability.

Prediction: Rangers. The Rangers again dip into the top 10 to upgrade their lineup. Cabrera could split time in left with Shin-Soo Choo, with the other taking turns at DH.

Randy's prediction: Brewers

10. Chase Headley

Position (Bats): 3B (S)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 30

Three-year average: 610 PA, .262/.352/.429, 123 OPS+

Observations: Headley turned what looked like a lost season into a great audition following his trade to New York. He doesn't offer a lot of power from the hot corner, but his mature approach helps him post respectable averages and on-base percentages from both sides of the plate. It's unlikely that Headley moves off third base anytime soon, but his experience at first base and in left field provides his next team with some defensive flexibility if desired.

Prediction: Yankees. Presuming Brian Cashman isn't counting on Alex Rodriguez to play a tolerable third base, Headley ought to stay in New York.

Randy's prediction: Giants

11. Nick Markakis

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 627 PA, .279/.342/.396, 105 OPS+

Observations: Markakis has an unusual profile. His defensive reputation outweighs his defensive metrics, and he's cast as a top-of-the-order hitter despite not possessing great speed. What he does is make contact and get on base a fair amount. Markakis is also the rare left-handed hitter who can hang in there against southpaws. Add it all up and the odds are he's staying in Baltimore because they value him more than anyone else would.

Prediction: Orioles. It would be a stunner to see Markakis sign elsewhere

Randy's prediction: Blue Jays

12. David Robertson

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 29

Three-year average: 64 IP, 156 ERA+, 4.23 SO/BB

Observations: The best closer available, Robertson has outgrown his "Houdini" nickname in one regard, as his control has improved over time. Nowadays he relies on a low-to-mid-90s cutter and a knuckle curve that both play up due to his good extension. Should Robertson leave New York—and as the prediction indicates, we aren't sold on the possibility—his raw numbers ought to improve. Otherwise, he should continue to be a quality ninth-inning guy for the Yankees.

Prediction: Yankees. Robertson might turn down the qualifying offer, but it's hard to see him leaving New York.

Randy's prediction: Red Sox

13. Ervin Santana

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 32

Three-year average: 195 IP, 95 ERA+, 2.70 SO/BB

Observations: An unusual season from Santana leaves him back on the open market in an uncertain position. He remains a durable middle-of-the-rotation starter who leans heavily on his fastball-slider combination, but last season's ERA doubles as a riddle. Typically when Santana struggles, he does so because his command wavered and balls left the park. Not so in '14; in fact his home run rate declined. It wasn't a sequencing thing, either: His OPS allowed with a man on base was one point higher than the previous season, and his OPS with a runner in scoring position was more than 20 points lower. So what caused the bloated ERA? Its not clear. Expect teams to have interest in him anyway.

Prediction: Blue Jays. Toronto reportedly tried to sign Santana in the spring. Why not try again?

Randy's prediction: Diamondbacks

14. Hiroki Kuroda

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 40

Three-year average: 207 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.59 SO/BB

Observations: With Kuroda's unclear status, it's possible he's thrown his last pitch in the majors. He's ranked here for posterity's sake. Realistically, he's probably a Yankee or not in the majors.

Prediction: Yankees. That or Japan. Or retirement. Definitely one of those three.

Randy's prediction: Marlins

15. Adam LaRoche

Position (Bats): 1B (L)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 35

Three-year average: 608 PA, .256/.346/.458, 118 OPS+

Observations: Quietly coming off one of the better offensive seasons of his career, LaRoche is the finest first baseman available. He thrashes righties, having hit 60 home runs off them since '12 but, like most left-handed hitters, struggles against southpaws. Still, his above-average pop and smooth glove stand out in this market and should overshadow his flaws, which also include suboptimal beard hygiene. Expect a team wanting more offense from the cold corner to lock LaRoche in to a multiple-year deal.

Prediction: Tigers. It's a reach, but if Martinez moves on the Tigers could insert LaRoche at first base and move Miguel Cabrera to DH.

Randy's prediction: Marlins

16. Colby Rasmus

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 28

Three-year average: 486 PA, .240/.304/.444, 103 OPS+

Observations: Although Rasmus is younger than most of the players on the list, his future doesn't necessarily inspire. While he hits for a lot of power for a center fielder, his walk rates are pedestrian and his aggressive approach at the plate leads to a lot of empty swings and strikeouts. Rasmus has struggled enough with left-handed pitchers in recent years that he's probably best served as a platoon type. Perhaps some team will chase the upside here—whatever is left of it, anyway—but it's probably time to put the star hopes to rest for good. Rasmus can help a team win, he's just unlikely to be one of their best players.

Prediction: Tigers. Detroit needs a center fielder. Rasmus might not be ideal, but if nothing else he can platoon with Rajai Davis.

Randy's prediction: Cubs

17. Brandon McCarthy

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 149 IP, 96 ERA+, 4.15 SO/BB

Observations: McCarthy notched the first 200-inning season of his career in an unusual manner. It wasn't until after a trade to the Yankees that his ERA matched his peripherals, but even before that deal he'd changed his approach to pitching. Offseason conditioning work left him with increased velocity, allowing him to elevate his four-seam fastball in two-strike counts more often. Otherwise, McCarthy became more of a sinker-curveball pitcher, reducing his cutter's role. Presuming everything checks out medically, he should be in line for a multi-year deal.

Prediction: Royals. Dayton Moore will need to replace Shields in the rotation. McCarthy would make good use of a talented infield defense.

Randy's prediction: Twins

18. Francisco Liriano

Position (Bats): LHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 160 IP, 96 ERA+, 2.19 SO/BB

Observations: The top-end pitchers available have left Liriano as a forgotten man of sorts. Maybe that's a good thing, as otherwise his flaws would've been overstated by now. Yes, he's wilder than is optimal; and yes, he's never topped 200 innings in a season. But Liriano continues to possess bat-missing, groundball-generating stuff that should keep him an effective middle-of-the-rotation starter for the near future. There's risk here, but that just means there's potential reward, too.

Prediction: Yankees. Liriano keeps the ball on the ground and neutralizes left-handed hitters. Both are positive traits for a pitcher in Yankees Stadium.

Randy's prediction: Phillies

19. Asdrubal Cabrera

Position (Bats): 2B (S)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 29

Three-year average: 598 PA, .251/.315/.404, 102 OPS+

Observations: Cabrera, who is younger than people realize, uses his quality bat to make up for his spotty glove. A switch-hitter capable of producing versus lefties or righties, Cabrera maintains respectable walk rates without striking out very often. He doesn't have the most power of any middle infielder, but he's more than capable of stinging a ball now and again. Factor in his ability to swipe 10 bases a year, and he's a fairly well-rounded offensive player.

Prediction: Nationals. Cabrera stays with Washington as their second baseman.

Randy's prediction: Cubs

20. Andrew Miller

Position (Bats): LHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 29

Three-year average: 44 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.74 SO/BB

Observations: An aggressive rank, no doubt, but Miller is coming in hot after a big season and playoff run. It doesn't hurt that he's a tall lefty with dynamite stuff and a strong pedigree. Southpaws with mid-90s fastballs and lethal sliders usually get cracks at closing. Miller has only one save to his name, but a daring team could give him the opportunity.

Prediction: Dodgers. Miller heads to L.A. as another high-leverage option.

Randy's prediction: Royals

21. Rafael Soriano

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 35

Three-year average: 65 IP, 139 ERA+, 2.98 SO/BB

Observations: An interesting free agent case. Soriano has years of closing experience and quality multi-year numbers; heck, his '14 figures aren't bad, either. Yet because of how he ended the season—losing his closer's job after his ERA spiked from 2.52 entering September to over 3.00 three appearances later—there's a chance that negative momentum carries into the winter. On paper, Soriano isn't old or bad enough to settle for a one-year deal. Let's see if the market agrees.

Prediction: Rangers. Texas has lost a few late-inning relievers the past year-plus. Soriano would give Banister a veteran late-inning option.

Randy's prediction: Astros

22. Jed Lowrie

Position (Bats): SS (S)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 30

Three-year average: 538 PA, .265/.333/.412, 107 OPS+

Observations: Lowrie is a substandard defender at shortstop, but the weak market and an even shakier history at second base means he might stick there anyway. Wherever Lowrie plays on the diamond, the draw is his bat. He's better versus righties than lefties, which is suboptimal, but over the past three seasons he's ranked fifth in OPS+ among shortstops with 900 or more plate appearances. That Lowrie has overcome early durability concerns should also help generate a market.

Prediction: Yankees. New York could use a shortstop, and if they lose out on Ramirez then Lowrie is the next best thing.

Randy's prediction: Rangers

23. Michael Cuddyer

Position (Bats): LF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 36

Three-year average: 380 PA, .307/.362/.525, 126 OPS+

Observations: Cuddyer can hit, of that there's no doubt. Less obvious is where he'll play, as he's a man of many positions and a god of none. Another worry is his injury history. Cuddyer has topped 500 plate appearances in a season just once since leaving Minnesota. But hey, the dude is a hitter capable of producing respectable-to-good averages, on-base percentages, and slugging percentages. Some team will overlook his flaws to add him to their lineup.

Prediction: Mets. New York could use a left fielder, or whatever he is these days.

Randy's prediction: Rangers

24. Mike Morse

Position (Bats): LF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 33

Three-year average: 416 PA, .266/.313/.448, 111 OPS+

Observations: There are a lot of negatives to Morse's game. He's not a good defender, he always misses time with injuries, and he has an overly aggressive approach at the plate that leads to plenty of strikeouts and few walks. Phew. There are positives though, such as Morse's impressive pole-to-pole raw power and his ability to post respectable averages. Because of that, he'll find work as a bat-only left fielder—that or bouncer.

Prediction: Giants. It's Brian Sabean following a World Series win.

Randy's prediction: Rangers

25. Norichika Aoki

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 33

Three-year average: 604 PA, .287/.353/.387, 103 OPS+

Observations: Aoki is the rare bird with reverse platoon splits; he's also one of the bigger opposite-field users in the league, a tendency that led to Juan Perez's running grab in Game Seven. Because Aoki has tremendous bat-to-ball skills, he seldom whiffs or strikes out. The flip side of that coin is he doesn't walk much, either. Defensively, Aoki makes up for questionable routes with good speed. He's not the stereotypical fit for right field, given his low-wattage bat, but a team wanting a leadoff or no. 2 hitter will embrace him as a short-term fit.

Prediction: Athletics. Billy Beane upgrades over Sam Fuld.

Randy's prediction: Mariners

26. Rickie Weeks

Position (Bats): 2B (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 32

Three-year average: 454 PA, .233/.327/.398, 96 OPS+

Observations: The poor-fielding Weeks had his best offensive season since 2010, albeit in a smaller sample. Per usual, there's a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, and while he'll provide walks and pop, his strikeout rates are concerning heading forward. Weeks won't add any value via stolen bases, but runs better than you'd expect with the ball in play. Overall, he's an intriguing play for any team priced out on Cabrera.

Prediction: Marlins. Weeks can platoon with Derek Dietrich, giving the Fish two rough gloves and solid bats at the keystone.

Randy's prediction: White Sox

27. Alex Rios

Position (Bats): OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 34

Three-year average: 608 PA, .288/.324/.452, 110 OPS+

Observations: Rios took his inconsistency act to new depths in '14, homering just four times while striking out more than he had since 2006 and stealing bases at a highly inefficient clip. Because his past is littered with recoveries following poor seasons, he's likely to get a big-league deal. Anything longer than a one-year arrangement is pushing it.

Prediction: Reds. Cincinnati needs outfield help but probably won't dish for a big name. Rios might help. Maybe.

Randy's prediction: Royals

28. Torii Hunter

Position (Bats): OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 39

Three-year average: 607 PA, .301/.339/.455, 118 OPS+

Observations: Hunter's weird career arc continues, from glove-first center fielder to bat-first corner outfielder. Everyone knows he's not good in the field these days, but what's equally concerning is his bat. Hunter has become highly dependent on average and power, with his walk rate dipping for a third consecutive season last year, all the way down to 3.9 percent. Given his age consists of the same numbers, it's possible he falls off in short manner. As such, any team giving him a multi-year contract is tempting fate.

Prediction: Royals. Hunter would give the Royals a new right fielder or a potential replacement for Billy Butler at DH.

Randy's prediction: Blue Jays

29. Billy Butler

Position (Bats): DH (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 28

Three-year average: 650 PA, .292/.358/.436, 117 OPS+

Observations: Full name: Billy Ray Butler. Nickname: Country Breakfast. Classifying Butler's fielding and baserunning as eggs would be generous. The truth is he's a negative everywhere but at the plate—and even then, he's not an elite hitter. Butler can produce good averages and on-base percentages, yet there are obvious negatives to his bat-work. His power tends to be of the doubles variety, for one, and his tendency to hit into a ton of double plays cuts into his value. He'll find work anyway because he's proved capable of doing the job.

Prediction: Mariners. Seattle is always searching for offense, and has shown that defensive skill isn't always a priority. Butler fits as a DH or ... uh a DH.

Randy's prediction: Phillies

30. Sergio Romo

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 32

Three-year average: 58 IP, 130 ERA+, 5.29 SO/BB

Observations: That Romo throws so many strikes despite pitching off his slider is an under-appreciated aspect of his game. That he's been able to retire left-handed batters effectively throughout his career is another one. Unfortunately, he hasn't been as effective against them the past two seasons, allowing as many home runs in each (three) as he had in the previous four seasons combined. Still, Romo is likely to occupy a late-inning role heading forward, even if it's not a closing gig. He's been a key cog in the Giants' recent bullpens and his new contract should reflect that.

Prediction: Giants. It's Brian Sabean following a World Series win.

Randy's prediction: Yankees

31. Luke Gregerson

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 30

Three-year average: 70 IP, 150 ERA+, 3.61 SO/BB

Observations: Gregerson is one of five pitchers to appear in at least 60 games in each of the past six seasons (including fellow free agent Craig Breslow). In addition to his durability, he's effective against lefties and righties alike, solidifying his status as a legitimate late-inning option. The biggest concerns about Gregerson might be his slider-heavy approach, which could lead to health woes in the future, and how he'll take to a different home ballpark after spending his entire big-league career in spacious fields.

Prediction: Tigers. This might surprise you, but Detroit needs relief help. Gregerson gives them a steady seventh- or eighth-inning type.

Randy's prediction: Padres

32. Casey Janssen

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 33

Three-year average: 54 IP, 140 ERA+, 4.68 SO/BB

Observations: Janssen picked an awful time for his strikeout and hit rates to head down the wrong street. Blame it on his lower-back issues, as if that's comforting, but he's missed time before with shoulder and forearm troubles, which adds to the apprehension. Although he served as Toronto's closer, Janssen is not equipped with the typical power arsenal. His main pitches are a low-90s fastball and cutter and a mid-70s curveball. Given the statistical (and potentially physical) decline, Janssen might find himself in a set-up role until he can prove he's still effective.

Prediction: Nationals. Janssen gives Matt Williams another late-inning fix, all but replacing Rafael Soriano.

Randy's prediction: Braves

33. Jake Peavy

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 33

Three-year average: 189 IP, 109 ERA+, 3.20 SO/BB

Observations: Peavy is younger than you think—and perhaps more durable, too. After failing to top 200 innings in four consecutive tries, he has accomplished the feat twice in the past three years. His deep arsenal hasn't helped him avoid the long ball with any reliability, but he throws strikes and should continue to be an okay back-end guy. Oh, and he's a good luck charm, having pitched for the past two World Series champions.

Prediction: Cubs. That's the rumor de jour surrounding Peavy for the time being.

Randy's prediction: Blue Jays

34. Jason Hammel

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 32

Three-year average: 145 IP, 101 ERA+, 2.74 SO/BB

Observations: Did you know Hammel has never topped the 180-inning mark? At minimum you knew he faded with the Athletics after a brilliant start to the season with the Cubs. These days Hammel has trimmed his mostly average arsenal to the point where he's essentially a fastball-slider pitcher with unreliable command. That means, first-half aberration aside, he's more of a no. 4 starter.

Prediction: Giants. With Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong hitting free agency, Sabean will need another new arm to toss at the heel of his rotation.

Randy's prediction: Marlins

35. Aaron Harang

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 36

Three-year average: 176 IP, 90 ERA+, 2.07 SO/BB

Observations: Author of one of last year's most shocking Aprils, Harang didn't reinvent himself so much as he reasserted that he can be a tolerable back-of-the-rotation starter. Along the way he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2007. In all likelihood, Harang won't be as good for his next team as he was with the Braves. And yet, he's been a league-average starter or thereabout in three of the past four seasons, inspiring hope that he has another passable year in that old arm of his.

Prediction: Angels. Harang shouldn't require a big salary or a long-term commitment, and could help shore up the tail-end of Jerry Dipoto's rotation.

Randy's prediction: Yankees

36. Gavin Floyd

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 32

Three-year average: 82 IP, 103 ERA+, 2.43 SO/BB

Observations: Though Floyd missed most of the 2013 season, he recorded five quality starts last year in nine tries. Sadly, he fractured his olecranon during that final start, ending his season and complicating his free-agent case. While health is an obvious question mark, there's some intrigue here. Floyd's stuff had always outweighed his results until '14. Still, the results have been good enough over the years that he deserves a job near the back of someone's rotation for as long as he can stay on the mound.

Prediction: Orioles. Floyd passed on a multi-year offer from the O's last winter in order to sign a one-year deal with the Braves to regain his value. He won't repeat that mistake this offseason.

Randy's prediction: Rockies

37. Jason Grilli

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 38

Three-year average: 54 IP, 115 ERA+, 3.95 SO/BB

Observations: Grilli improved his numbers across the board after joining the Angels in a midseason trade—more strikeouts and fewer hits, walks, and home runs. When right he fills up the zone with a running mid-90s fastball and uses a two-plane slider to keep hitters off balance. Because the market is flooded with quality high-leverage arms, Grilli might not land a ninth-inning gig. If nothing else, he makes a nice plan B for a team with a shaky incumbent.

Prediction: White Sox. Rick Hahn dips into the free-agent market for a proven late-inning reliever.

Randy's prediction: Brewers

38. Pat Neshek

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 34

Three-year average: 42 IP, 168 ERA+, 3.77 SO/BB

Observations: The side-arming Neshek is known foremost as a sinker-slider pitcher. Yet last season he changed his approach versus lefties, incorporating his changeup instead. The results were much improved, and the gains feel more legitimate because of that tangible alteration. Neshek's lengthy injury history should limit his earning potential, meaning some team might find out if his gains are for real at a cheaper cost than you'd expect.

Prediction: White Sox. Hahn adds another veteran type to his 'pen.

Randy's prediction: Rockies

39. Edinson Volquez

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 182 IP, 83 ERA+, 1.80 SO/BB

Observations: A wild card. Volquez seemingly restarted his career last season with the Pirates, yet teams will have to ask just how real the improvements were. His peripherals didn't betoken genuine progress, and despite seeming gains made with his control, he still led the NL in wild pitches and finished fourth in hit batsmen. The stuff remains quality and his durability gives him value as an innings sponge; but add in the variability in his performance and he could be a better fit on a rebuilding team.

Prediction: White Sox. If anyone outside of Ray Searage can keep Volquez right, it's Don Cooper. Even so, it's not obvious that Chicago is a fit. Volquez is a tough pitcher to place.

Randy's prediction: Dodgers

40. Justin Masterson

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 30

Three-year average: 176 IP, 82 ERA+, 2.02 SO/BB

Observations: Buyer beware. Masterson had a horrible walk year, losing velocity and missing time with knee troubles. A midseason trade to the Cardinals is a highlight for most players, but not for Masterson, who pitched worse while in St. Louis. His history lends itself to the narrative that he's an intriguing buy-low candidate, but he didn't look like the same pitcher he was in the past. There's a legitimate chance he fails to recover. As such, a one-year deal is about as far as teams should go.

Prediction: Astros. The bargain-seeking Astros pounce on Masterson and his groundball-heavy ways.

Randy's prediction: Red Sox

41. Geovany Soto

Position (Bats): C (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 32

Three-year average: 211 PA, .219/.291/.381, 81 OPS+

Observations: Soto missed most of last season due to knee and groin injuries, and hasn't broken the 400-plate appearance threshold since 2011. That he's the second-best backstop available (depending on how people feel about Nick Hundley, or whether David Ross continues to play) tells you all you need to know about the catching market. Hug your Molinas, Poseys, and Lucroys, folks.

Prediction: Pirates. Soto provides Pittsburgh with a short-term fix and an improvement over Chris Stewart.

Randy's prediction: Tigers

42. Kendrys Morales

Position (Bats): DH (S)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 527 PA, .261/.315/.427, 110 OPS+

Observations: Boy howdy can things change in a year. Morales had a miserable 2014, beginning with a lengthy free-agent holdout that lasted until after the draft, and ending in a poor season split between the Twins and Mariners. The hope for any interested team is that Morales will return to his old ways with a normal offseason. If that's actually the case or not is unclear. Certainly it's a little discouraging that Morales didn't even flash for a month, especially given his status as a bat-only player, but some team will bet on him bouncing back at a reduced cost regardless.

Prediction: Blue Jays. The Adam Lind trade means the Jays could use a full-time DH like Morales, who ought to come cheaper anyway.

Randy's prediction: Rays

43. Stephen Drew

Position (Bats): SS (L)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 32

Three-year average: 376 PA, .220/.301/.377, 86 OPS+

Observations: Like with Morales, whichever team signs Drew is praying for a return to normalcy. Given how his defensive reputation eclipses what defensive metrics say about him, and how sparse the free-agent market is for shortstops, the odds are he'll sign a one-year deal somewhere to become their starter. Whether Drew can hold that job until October is anyone's guess.

Prediction: Athletics. The most popular predictions for Drew's landing spot will be one of his former teams. Oakland wins this round..

Randy's prediction: Rays

44. Chris Denorfia

Position (Bats): OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 34

Three-year average: 420 PA, .269/.324/.390, 105 OPS+

Observations: Normally able to impact the game in all three phases, Denorfia recorded below-average offensive marks last season for the first time since 2008. He picked a bad time for an off year, as he'll hit the market following a putrid run with the Mariners. Still, Denorfia has plenty going for him. He's an energetic player and good defender who can steal 10 bags a year. Add in his history at the plate—albeit as a high-average, low-wattage type—and teams will overlook the down year.

Prediction: Braves. Denorfia gives the Braves a legitimate alternative to B.J. Upton.

Randy's prediction: Indians

45. Jonny Gomes

Position (Bats): LF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 34

Three-year average: 340 PA, .248/.349/.417, 113 OPS+

Observations: It would be inaccurate to call Gomes a lesser Denorfia—Gomes has outhit Denorfia against lefties and righties the past three seasons—so let's go with a different, more limited take on the same right-handed platoon outfielder role—Gomes is the Flo Rida to Denorfia's Nelly, if you will. Gomes is good for offense and chemistry, bad for defense and baserunning. At his best he commands the strike zone, takes walks, and bops lefties. Sounds good, except there is a catch: Gomes relies heavily on old player skills, which tend to erode around this age. That doesn't mean Gomes will collapse soon, just a warning that his poor '14 could be more than an outlier.

Prediction: Orioles. Consider Gomes a likable Delmon Young.

Randy's prediction: Pirates

46. Colby Lewis

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 35

Two-year average: 138 IP, 91 ERA+, 3.65 SO/BB (missed 2013 due to injury)

Observations: Lewis finished strong enough to make the list despite owning the second-worst ERA among pitchers with more than 160 innings. He notched three of his eight quality starts during his final five outings, continuing a trend of pitching well after the All-Star break (he recorded a 3.86 ERA and nearly three strikeouts per walk over his final 13 starts). If you can find it in your heart to forgive his ugly, rust-shedding first half, then you should see him as a cheap, back-of-the-rotation type.

Prediction: Braves. John Hart needs to replace a few starters. Lewis might be more injury-prone than is ideal, but he should come at a bargain price and require little more than a short-term commitment.

Randy's prediction: Diamondbacks

47. Alberto Callaspo

Position (Bats): 3B/2B (S)

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 496 PA, .245/.319/.342, 88 OPS+

Observations: There are some unmistakable similarities between Callaspo and Maicer Izturis that extend beyond their status as erstwhile Angels—namely, both switch-hitting utility infielders struggled during their walk years. Whichever team signs Callaspo will hope he can break free from sharing Izturis' career path, which has continued southward. Callaspo is more of a finger-roller than a dunker at the plate, but he makes a lot of contact and walks about as often as he strikes out. He's well versed defensively, having played all over, though his ideal home is at the keystone, where his arm isn't as stretched. He'd make sense on any team looking for a versatile, inexpensive infield contributor.

Prediction: Royals. Yes, Dayton Moore jettisoned Callaspo in favor of Mike Moustakas a few years ago, but reacquiring Callaspo to give Moustakas a breather against left-handed pitchers would be a nifty move.

Randy's prediction: Cubs

48. Zach Duke

Position (Bats): LHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Three-year average: 35 IP, 114 ERA+, 3.29 SO/BB

Observations: Duke's revival in the bullpen included a lowered arm slot and altered arsenal (he focused on sinkers and breaking balls). Here is an overly simplistic list of things he did last season following those tweaks: threw strikes, missed bats, and generated groundballs at a 60 percent clip. Include how he retired lefties and righties alike, and he could be more than a stereotypical left-handed specialist; he could be a legitimately valuable reliever. Of course Duke doesn't offer a large enough sample in the 'pen to say for certain, so he's unlikely to get paid as well as he could otherwise. Nonetheless, his once threatened big-league career is safe.

Prediction: Angels. Duke gives Mike Scioscia a versatile Joe Thatcher replacement.

Randy's prediction: White Sox

49. Luke Hochevar

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 31

Two-year average: 128 IP, 89 ERA+, 2.90 SO/BB (missed 2014 due to injury)

Observations: Following years of dismal starting and constant overthinking, Hochevar flourished after moving to the bullpen in '13. The reduced responsibilities allowed him to thin his repertoire for the better, leading to a higher dosage of mid-to-upper-90s fastballs, cutters, and spike curves. Unfortunately, Hochevar missed last season due to Tommy John surgery. There's no guarantee he'll be as good as he was in his first stint in the bullpen, but his upside will generate plenty of interest.

Prediction: Dodgers. Small-market teams figure to target Hochevar, hoping he comes cheap amid a strong relief market. However, Hochevar signing with L.A. would give Don Mattingly another late-inning option, and beat writers some easy copy about how the Dodgers drafted Hochevar twice. Everyone wins. (Note: Randy's projection would also result in those stories since Logan White, the man who made both Hochevar picks, now works for the Padres.)

Randy's prediction: Padres

50. Brandon Morrow

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/15): 30

Three-year average: 71 IP, 102 ERA+, 2.34 SO/BB

Observations: You can change Morrow's name to Josh Johnson and the premise remains the same: talented arm held back by health. Neither Morrow nor Johnson has been well enough to exceed 100 innings since 2012; Morrow receives the edge over Johnson here because he pitched last season, albeit not often or successfully. You just know someone is going to look at him—complete with tantalizing size, arm strength, and stuff—and run him out there as a starter. But wouldn't it be interesting if Morrow returned to the bullpen? Alas, it might not cure his physical ills; otherwise, he would have switched years ago. Either way Morrow, like Johnson, has a few more stops before he reaches Priorville.

Prediction: Pirates. Pitching coach Ray Searage has guided Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez back to relevancy, and while he doesn't have a magic wand (allegedly), he's among the few who could help Morrow get there, too.

Randy's prediction: Yankees

Special thanks to Sam Miller, Jason Wojciechowski, Sahadev Sharma, Zachary Levine, Craig Goldstein, Tommy Rancel, Jonah Keri, and others for input.

R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @r_j_anderson
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