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October 31, 2014
Hot Stove Scouting Report
James Shields
by Jordan Gorosh
James Shields
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Born: 12/20/1981 (Age: 32) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6-3 |
Weight: 215 |
Repeats very well; exaggerated hip turn; shows batter full numbers; high lead front arm; head whack; keeps fingers on top of ball; powerful lower half; can fall off mound toward 1B side; good athlete. From stretch: starts normally, brings hands up high and around, while peaking toward 1B. Sets high. 1.25-1.35 to plate. |
70; Low No. 1; High No. 2 |
2-3 |
High No. 2 starter; will re-define himself as a two-seam/cutter pitcher later in the career; changeup will allow him to stay successful; strikeout numbers beginning to decline, command taking step forward. |
Fastball |
60 |
91-94 |
96 |
Commands to all quadrants of the zone; works the outer third of the plate, and inside, off the plate to RHH, mostly away from LHH; can add and subtract velocity based on situation; often tries to get ahead with four-seamer early in the count; attacks hitters with the pitch; uses inside part of the plate when ahead in count; won't use as often when ahead, especially to LHH; good plane on two-seamer; uses fastball less the third time through the order and later.
Two-seam: 13.02% usage; .258/.356; 4.66% whiff
Four-seam: 28.18% usage; .285/.488; 6.03% whiff |
Cutter |
60 |
87-89 |
91 |
Loose wrist; darting action low and away from RHH; tight, short break; can use as a set-up offering; may flatten out when up; induces weak contact when located correctly; works inside to LHH and away from RHH; target is typically catcher's right shin guard; used at beginning of sequence to get ahead or force batter to hit a ground ball; has propensity to fall in love with the pitch; uses more frequently on RHH.
25% usage; .271/.413; 10.46% whiff |
Changeup |
70 |
84-87 |
88 |
Outstanding arm speed and deception; prefers to throw to LHH, will also use on RHH; fading and tumbling action with arm-side drop; acts like a forkball; bat-missing offering, very difficult to square; will work backwards when deeper in count; rarely starts hitters off with the pitch; flashes 80, can be an elite offering; money pitch; bread and butter; primarily thrown with two strikes, especially to LHH; uses to get strike outs.
22.2% usage; .236/.370; 18.6% whiff |
Knuckle curveball |
50 |
79-82 |
84 |
Downward action, 1-7; can flatten out, stay up; shallow break; backfoots it to LHH, down and away from RHH; 'show-me' offering; keeps hitters off balance; gives them a different look; doesn't attack or use to get outs; will throw in the middle of a sequence, or ahead of LHH; uses pitch more as the game goes on.
12% usage; .219/.323; 15.99% whiff |
|
vs LHH |
vs RHH |
|
CH |
FA |
FC |
SI |
CU |
FA |
FC |
CH |
SI |
CU |
Usage |
24.96% |
24.76% |
20.86% |
14.81% |
14.61% |
31.68% |
28.33% |
18.35% |
11.95% |
9.68% |
Strike |
62.63% |
66.05% |
71.25% |
62.98% |
58.25% |
66.04% |
70.46% |
63.19% |
59.50% |
59.88% |
Swing / Miss |
13.35% |
5.38% |
10.07% |
3.11% |
14.04% |
6.79% |
10.55% |
22.15% |
6.00% |
19.75% |
* Only showing top 5 pitches by pitch count. Stats are for the 2014 season
Looks to get ahead; relies on hard stuff early in the count, softer offerings as it gets later in the sequence; will work both sides of the plate and keeps the ball low; can be a bat-misser or barrel-misser depending on outing; attacks hitters, shows no fear, never gives in; willing to challenge; changeup is his pacifier.
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Stays within himself; moment never too big; shows emotion after big outs or pitches, especially late in games; type of pitcher you want on the mound in high leverage situation; very good teammate, leader in the clubhouse.
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Works ball down in zone; keeps hitters guessing; commands to both sides of the plate; throws any of his offerings for strikes; sequences well; has double-plus out-pitch, which plays up to elite at times; avoids middle of the plate; misses barrels; limits walks; quick feet on pickoff move; keeps runners close; halts running game; difficult on LHH; numbers hold late into games.
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Can become cutter-happy; cutter and slider can stay in same velo band; change may flatten if he overthrows it; fastball is true, and will occasionally miss over heart of the plate when challenging; homer-prone with harder offerings; hubris can work against him.
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Threw 63% first pitch strikes in 2014, so attack early in the count, before he can get to the change up; is 55+ percent likely to throw a fastball on the first pitch of the at bat; look for fastball that's elevated, out over the plate; try to foul off change up with two strikes.
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Will command $19-22 million and could see four years with an option for a fifth. Shields is a top of the rotation starter that should age well and is not dependent on velocity while pitching with guile and brains. He can win games in the low-90s with cut and sink, in addition to his excellent changeup. Shields is a fearless pitcher who will throw upwards of 200 innings annually.
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Jordan Gorosh is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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<< Previous Article
Minor League Update: A... (10/31)
|
<< Previous Column
Hot Stove Scouting Rep... (10/30)
|
Next Column >>
Hot Stove Scouting Rep... (11/03)
|
Next Article >>
Daisy Cutter: A Year W... (10/31)
|
I know that there's a key around here somewhere but can anyone tell me what these slash lines are?
***Two-seam: 13.02% usage; .258/.356; 4.66% whiff
Four-seam: 28.18% usage; .285/.488; 6.03% whiff***