October 30, 2014

Minor League Update

AFL Recap for Games of October 29th

by BP Prospect Staff

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With a strong portion of our prospect team in the desert, Baseball Prospectus has you covered for the Fall League action. Our plan was to approach these reports in a similar fashion to our Ten Pack articles, but with fewer players to work with, we anticipated what was to be called a Six Pack. In so many ways, however, a six pack just wasn’t going to be enough to get the job done this weekend, so we overachieved.

Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres (Saguaros, AFL)
In terms of raw power, Renfroe checks in just below the truly elite guys (Gallo, Bryant, Sano), and the show he puts on in batting practice impresses even veteran scouts. The bat speed is at the plus level and the raw power is plus-plus. The game application, however, leaves you wanting more. Few can time up a fastball like Renfroe, but there is a ton of forward movement in his swing and the weight transfer is significant. His entire swing is timed to hit fastballs, and he does that as well as any prospect in the minors, but without an adjustment, he leaves the door open for exposure to better breaking pitches. At this point, he could hit anywhere from .230 to .280 at the major-league level (which was confirmed by a scout in attendance on Wednesday), and the slot in which he falls depends largely on his ability to handle better offspeed offerings. The power will play regardless, though its application will also depend on his hit tool. It’s a big-league profile either way, but the level of impact greatly depends on his ability to separate the stride from the swing and handle offspeed pitches. —Jeff Moore

Trea Turner, SS, Padres (Saguaros)
Turner comes to the Arizona Fall League after a long year spent in the collegiate level and the professional level. Turner’s athleticism pops and it shows in all facets of his game. On Wednesday, I saw Turner stumble out of the blocks on a grounder to the left side and still beat out a single, making it down the first-base line in 4.25 seconds. Turner’s actions in the field are smooth; he has a clean glove-to-hand transfer and he can make the plays to his left and right well. The arm didn’t show up during infield, but it shows up very well in games, and it’s good enough to survive at shortstop. Turner’s swing was problematic in a limited look. He has a hitch in his load and the swing was looking long all day. He showed very little raw power in batting practice and he struggled in game, as he was passive at the plate to go with the long swing. Again, Turner’s been grinding hard for eight months, so there’s some fatigue to take into account here. There are enough workable parts to remain excited about his package. —Mauricio Rubio

Sean Coyle, 2B, Red Sox (Saguaros)
Short, compact, and muscular are all apt descriptors for Coyle. He’s a solid defender up the middle with a good first step, a good glove, and the range to last at second. What I saw from his arm today didn’t inspire much confidence in his ability to play at third long term, but he’s more than adequate at second. Coyle is a fast player, and I got him down to first in 4.10 on a dig from the right side. While he is a plus runner, Coyle didn’t show good baserunning instincts on the base paths on Wednesday. Coyle had difficulty reading Anthony DeSclafani’s move to first base and was nearly picked off twice. Coyle was eventually picked off later in the game again, displaying a poor read on the pitcher’s move to first base. The swing is compact, but he didn’t show much in the way of pitch recognition in his at-bats. Coyle is fast and he can field well. He can make solid contact when he isn’t completely over the top of quality breaking stuff, but the pitch recognition might be what keeps him from being anything more than a fringy up-and-down guy. —Mauricio Rubio

Michael De Leon, SS, Rangers (Saguaros)
The Dominican shortstop is the youngest player in the AFL at 17 years old, but he blends in well with the older talent. He has a small frame and lacks much physical projection. It's hard to envision any growth without sacrificing the fluidity in the field, but that is not necessarily a detriment. De Leon has excellent motions in the field, with a good first step and adept baseball instincts. He flashes range to both sides and has strong transfer skills, with enough arm to play on the left side. The bat is light, with a small load and average bat speed. As a switch hitter, he replicates the swing well from both sides, but is slightly out of unison from the left side. His hips lag behind and his hands stagger before moving through the zone. De Leon shows ability to barrel the ball but has poor power. The AFL is a good proving ground for a young player lacking projection, and it falls in line with how quickly the Rangers have pushed him through their system. —Tucker Blair

Enrique Burgos, RHP, Diamondbacks (Rafters)
The Panamanian righty has a large frame with a thick and sturdy top. The delivery is not highly exerted, but he has a slight stab and a large arm action coming from a natural three-quarters angle. The arm speed substitutes for some of these deficiencies, and he was sitting 96-97 mph with life off a solid plane. He lacks sufficient deceleration after his hard drive, which causes him to push his fastball at times. Burgos also flashed an average slider that sat 83-86 mph with 10-6 break. It's an intriguing profile due to the large frame and power stuff, but the command is below average and will hinder his ability to be a back-end reliever moving forward. Burgos looks the part of an up-and-down arm if the command does not improve. —Tucker Blair

D.J. Peterson, 3B, Mariners (Saguaros)
Peterson finished this season with 31 homers between two levels. The raw power is plus, but there is some concern with how the hands flow through the zone. He keeps the hands low and has some difficulty catching up with high-end fastball velocity on the inner portion of the plate. The swing has a slight loft and he is able to get a long extension and reach anything on the outside, but I do worry about him being pounded inside. In this specific viewing, Peterson was challenged inside on multiple occasions by Jimmie Sherfy. Defensively, his footwork is choppy at third base and the range is slightly below average. Idealistically, Peterson can stick at third base, but he likely fits better as a first basemen moving forward due to average athleticism. Peterson showed flashes of first-division talent, but there is some inherent risk on both sides of his game. —Tucker Blair

Brandon Drury, 3B, Diamondbacks (Rafters)
The 6-foot-2, 190-pound (listed) Drury displays plenty of strength in his thick, muscular frame, employing a short, compact stroke with very quick hands and innate barrel skills through the zone, showcasing the ability to get the barrel to 94 mph at the letters on one particular occasion. The 22-year-old tracks the ball very well and took a walk in his first plate appearance of the day, laying off of weak stuff at the fringes and showing a patient approach, though he occasionally shows pitch recognition issues on breaking balls on the outer half. His range at third base is fringy but he shows good hands and fluid actions at the position with plenty of arm for the left side of the infield. He will continue to get thicker and slower and will eventually move to first base down the line, but he will stick at the hot corner in the near term. The upside isn’t crazy, but the chances of him hitting his above-average regular ceiling are high due to his ability to hit line drives from gap to gap with at least average in-game power and a chance to stick at third base. —Ethan Purser

Jimmie Sherfy, RHP, Diamondbacks (Rafters)
In two innings of work this afternoon, Sherfy showed why he’s a legitimate back-end of the bullpen prospect. The 6-foot, 175-pound righty has a narrow frame and small hips but generates plenty of momentum to the plate by utilizing a drop-and-drive delivery with some effort, including a slight hook in the back, a head whack, and a bit of a spin off to first base. His fastball was a plus-plus pitch, sitting 95-97, touching 98 with some natural arm-side run coming from an extended three-quarters arm slot. His slider also flashed double-plus at 81-83 with legitimate swing-and-miss potential within the zone, though he occasionally got around the pitch and threw a few fringy cement mixers in his second inning of work. His fastball command also wavered in his second frame, though the former Oregon Duck showed the ability to command the zone in a one-inning stint. The upside is an electric late-innings arm with the potential to be a low-tier closer at his peak. —Ethan Purser