October 29, 2014

Playoff Prospectus

Second-Inning Struggles

by Sahadev Sharma

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This was never a close game. Yordano Ventura had some control issues that gave the Giants some prime scoring opportunities, but they never converted. The five walks don’t look great, but Ventura allowed just three hits and did the most important thing he could do, which is keep the opponent from crossing home. Add in the fact that he tossed 64 pitches 95 mph or above and had a beautiful tribute to Oscar Taveras, and it really was a nice outing for a young pitcher with a bright future. Other than that, the Royals' seven-run second was the story of the game.

In my Game Six preview, I said Tuesday night’s game, like Game Two, would likely be a bullpen game. Ventura proved me wrong for the Royals side, but Jake Peavy delivered his shortest, and probably worst, postseason start of his career.

The first thought I have is, should Peavy have started this game? With both Yusmeiro Petit and Tim Lincecum (assuming he’s healthy and available) as options, it becomes a valid question. Peavy has a career regular season 4.97 ERA against the Royals and a 6.42 ERA at Kauffman. I’m not sure how much I’d weight those numbers; probably minimal, considering it really gives us no detail about each outing and how those results occurred. But it’s an argument I heard for not starting him (after he had already exited the game, mind you).

I believe starting Peavy was the right choice. He struggled in Game Two, but not until the sixth inning. After giving up two runs on five hits and a walk in the first two innings of that game, he was perfect through the next three innings. He allowed the first two batters to reach in the sixth and Bruce Bochy didn’t hesitate to pull Peavy and go to his pen.

Zachary Levine pointed it out in the Game Two preview, so I’m just going to thank him for his work (Thanks, Zachary!) and steal his table. Peavy had been horrible during the regular season the third time through the order.

Bochy is certainly aware of this and has had a quick hook on Peavy in the postseason for that reason. My assumption is that by starting Peavy, he was hoping to get three to four solid innings, maybe squeeze a little more out of him, but have Petit ready to go when needed. This seems like a sound plan, but the Royals apparently aren’t big fans of that whole ‘on paper’ stuff.

I feel comfortable with Bochy going with Peavy starting. There is enough there for it to be a perfectly reasonable decision. Maybe Bochy waited too long to pull Peavy, but that feels like using the benefit of hindsight to criticize the manager. This was certainly a start in which, because of what we’ve seen from Peavy, once the lineup turned over, Bochy needed to be on high alert and ready to pull his starter at any sign of trouble. However, the real trouble didn’t start until after a few plays first baseman Brandon Belt just couldn’t make.

The first play was unfortunate, Belt is hugging the line at first, but moves just as the pitch is delivered and his dive comes up just short. Could’ve made that play, maybe should have, but that’s not something he deserves to be ripped for. The second play, however, is unacceptable. Perhaps Peavy shouting that he needed to throw home, despite the fact that Perez didn’t head to the plate, threw Belt off. But he needs to be able to gather himself and toss the ball to first. That changed the innings and changed the second from Peavy wriggling out of a jam to Peavy lasting just a 1 2/3 innings and the Giants getting blown out.

We then get to the decision to bring in Petit with one down, the bases loaded and two runs already on the board. Petit isn’t accustomed to coming into games in that type of mess, having had just four inherited runners this season and 10 in his entire career. That’s right, Petit has come into 63 games as a reliever and has a combined 10 inherited runners. He’s been absolutely brilliant for the Giants this October, but bringing him into a situation he’s completely unfamiliar with (he’s never entered the game with the bases loaded) during the World Series feels off.

There were numerous small moments in the second inning that changed the course of the game, but in the end, they added up to a Royals victory and a Game Seven on Wednesday night. I guess that makes us all winners.

(Well, except for Giants fans, they probably wanted this one to end Tuesday. Sorry, Giants fans.)

Sahadev Sharma is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @sahadevsharma
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