October 28, 2014

Playoff Prospectus

PECOTA Odds and Game Six Preview

by Sahadev Sharma

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The Royals sit on the brink of elimination as the Giants stare down their third championship in five years.

San Francisco Giants (Jake Peavy) at Kansas City Royals (Yordano Ventura) 8:07 p.m. Eastern

PECOTA odds of winning: 55% Giants, 45% Royals

Projected Starting Lineups

Injuries/Availability: Michael Morse will return to the lineup as the DH, and though he hasn’t played the field due to his strained oblique, it doesn’t appear as though the injury is affecting him much at the plate. Tim Lincecum has been deemed healthy, but hasn’t appeared since he exited Game One of the series – his only outing of the postseason – with lower back stiffness.

Yordano Ventura exited Game Two of the ALCS early with an apparent shoulder issue, but showed no signs of discomfort last Wednesday in the Royals’ Game Two victory.

Outlook: With the series heading back to Kansas City, not only do the Royals get the benefit of the Kauffman crowd, but also the return of Nori Aoki and Billy Butler to the lineup. Aoki’s offense is an upgrade over Jarrod Dyson’s (while the defense in the outfield will still be strong, if not the greatest ever) and obviously the addition of the DH is a boon for both offenses.

The real story here is the bullpens. In his Game Two preview of this series, Zachary Levine astutely pointed out that Jake Peavy had never gone deeper than 5 2/3 innings in his seven (now eight) postseason starts and has struggled mightily the third time through the order in 2014.

With the Royals facing elimination, Ned Yost will surely be (or at least should be) on high alert with Ventura and if he sees any signs of struggles, especially after the lineup has been turned over, he likely won’t hesitate to go to his bullpen.

If this does end up coming down to which bullpen performs better, the key will be how they’re utilized. On paper, Bruce Bochy and the Giants have the advantage in long relief with Yusmeiro Petit (and Lincecum, if he’s healthy) looking like a better option over the Royals’ offering of Danny Duffy. Of course, we’re all well aware that if the Royals can get through the sixth with a lead, a victory almost feels like a forgone conclusion with Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland waiting in the wings.

Sahadev Sharma is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @sahadevsharma
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