October 27, 2014

Fantasy Team Preview

Texas Rangers

by Craig Goldstein

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With the offseason just around the corner, it’s time to kick off our fantasy team previews. Last year, we ran these in conjunction with the top 10 prospect posts, but we’re giving them their own spotlight this year. We’re also going to be using a little bit of a different format, so let us know if there are gaps in the coverage or anything like that, so we can address it.

We’re kicking off the team previews with the worst team in baseball, the Houston Astros. No, that’s not right. The Texas Astros. Dammit. The Texas Rastros. Sonofabitch this is hard. If you’re a Rangers fan, it’s not hard to conceive that the team you watched day in and day out was baseball’s worst. For the rest of us though, it’s a bizarre notion that the Rangers finished in last place, and perhaps moreso that the Astros didn’t, for once (settle down Rockies fans, we’ll get to you).

We’re into the third paragraph of the intro, which means no one will read this, but first a warning: We’re well aware that since we’re not even into the offseason just yet, these looks are incomplete. That said, we strive to provide you with as much information as possible in as timely a way as possible. For any moves that take place after a team’s preview is written, please look to our Transaction Analysis coverage for instant reactions, and then check back on the Team Previews for more detailed updates later on (including lineups, rotations, bullpens, etc.). You’re in good hands with our takes.

Music for the Mood: How I Met Your Mother Season 9 on TV in the background.

I needed something to inspire me to write about the 2014 Rangers, and as luck would have it, this was on.

Studs

Yu Darvish - SP
I don’t need to tell you about Darvish. He’s one of the top fantasy pitchers available, even with the health issues that cropped up this year. If he puts together a full season, he’ll lead the league in strikeouts. Is that something I could interest you in?

Shin-Soo Choo - OF
I know, I know. 2014 was absolutely brutal, and it wasn’t like the guy was just getting unlucky. He struck out more, walked less, didn’t run, and didn’t compensate for increased whiffs with increased power. It was an absolute wasteland of a fantasy season.

His leg issues should be healed over the offseason, which should positively affect his stolen-base totals, and his hitting in general. In the two seasons prior to 2014, Choo slashed .284/.399/.452 and averaged 21 stolen bases and 17 home runs per season. That’s fantasy gold, and the reality is that his batted-ball profile hardly changed at all. He did miss 39 games and lose 37 points off his career BABIP, which makes sense given that his lower half wasn’t nearly as effective following his ankle injury. Most people want to be a year early to jump ship rather than a year late, and that’s fair, but Choo should have multiple high-caliber seasons left in the tank, whether he struggles with lefties or not.

Adrian Beltre - 3B
One of the most consistent players in baseball since departing the power-limiting confines of Seattle, Beltre has posted TAvs of .304, .322, .312, .320 since joining Texas. Beltre saw increases in both his walk and strikeout rates last year, though he continues to be an elite contact-maker given his power totals. He did miss 14 games, which contributed to his failing to crack 20 home runs for the first time since 2009. Missed games are part of the package with Beltre, and while his HR/FB rate dropped to 11.1 percent (lowest since 2006), he still stroked his customary 30-plus doubles.

It’s likely that at 35 years old, Beltre’s power is on the decline, but 25-plus home runs are still within reach. A healthy Rangers team would go a long way toward supporting his contextual stats (/throws shade at Choo and Fielder), but even with those uncertainties, he’s someone to count on. Even if you’re concerned the power isn’t going to return to previous levels, his .300+ batting average will play plenty well in today’s offensive environment. Old people tell you age is just a number, but with Beltre, it might actually be true.

Duds

Elvis Andrus - SS
Waiter: Be careful, this plate is extremely hot.
/you read the take
You (to friends): It wasn’t that hot, really
/you develop a blister

I’m aware this will read as a hot take, but the reality is it’s not meant to be. Andrus holds value, especially in deeper mixed or AL-only leagues, thanks to his ability to run. The issue is that he stole bases at a 64 percent clip, and might not receive the green light so much if he can’t turn it around. He’s shown the ability to be a high-volume, high-rate base-stealer in seasons past, so that’s not out of the question.

The issue is that if he’s not providing you large quantities of stolen bases, he’s not providing you much of anything at all. In roto leagues, he’s still worthwhile, as those stolen bases do matter, good rate or not. In points or head-to-head though, he’s a tough option because he’s either neutral or actively harming you in most other categories. Add in that we don’t know whether new manager Jeff Banister is willing to run consistently, and there’s more uncertainty built into his risk-profile. He’s got a chance for value in runs scored, and a truly healthy Rangers lineup gives him a good shot at that, but there is seemingly significantly more downside than upside in drafting Andrus.

X-Factor

Jurickson Profar/Rougned Odor - 2B
If either one were guaranteed to play a full season, they’d rank among the top “sleeper” candidates of the offseason. They might even though there are no guarantee, because both of them are just that good. It’s also possible that the Rangers see if a shortstop-needy team is interested in Andrus to open up a position for one of these two (or Luis Sardinas). Profar’s repeated shoulder injuries complicate that plan, but his all-category talent shouldn’t be overlooked if he can get healthy. Odor had a bad offensive line without context, but throw in that he was in his age-20 season, and it becomes remarkable. He slugged above league average as a 20-year old from the keystone, which immediately makes him intriguing. A full season would likely yield double-digit home runs and stolen bases (though the percentage would be ugly). He can likely improve upon his batting average as he adjusts to the league, and while his fantasy value is dampened by a likely spot at the bottom of the order, Odor has the talent to push his way to the top of the order, and thus accrue more fantasy value.

Prince Fielder - 1B
Honestly, who the hell knows at this point? I was all-in on Fielder prior to last season, thinking we were too early to bury the portly first baseman. That went horribly, of course, but neck injuries are no small thing for a hitter to be dealing with. It’s possible a healthy Fielder means a return towards (not to) his career averages, but at this point he’s probably best avoided until he becomes an extreme value play. Not only do we not know the extent to which the neck caused his struggles, but we don’t know how players (or Fielder) generally return from such an injury.

Leonys Martin - CF
It feels like Martin is the guy that people want Andrus to be, and that isn’t even all that great. He somehow hit seven home runs and still sported an ISO less than .100. He has swiped 30-plus bags each of the last two seasons, and he does so providing enough power and batting average to at least be neutral. It’s unlikely that Martin experiences some sort of power outburst, but he’s entering his age-27 season, so stranger things have happened. If he can reach double-digit home runs, his power/speed combination would be a difference-maker. If Banister is willing to put Martin atop the lineup, he could threaten for 75-plus runs scored.

Martin Perez - SP
Take the breakout feelings about Perez, and push them forward a year. Perez started the year out on fire, allowing six earned runs over his first 38 innings, before imploding in his final three starts before Tommy John surgery. Those three starts skew the overall number substantially, but Perez’s fastball command in his first five starts was spectacular, and enabled him to record starts of eight, nine, and nine innings in that span. He’s never going to miss a ton of bats, which limits his fantasy ceiling, but bulk innings of above-average numbers has value unto itself. The 2015 payoff is likely to be light, as he returns from surgery and those innings look a little trimmer. Looking at Danny Duffy’s return could be instructive. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2012 and threw 24 1/3 innings in the big leagues the following season. Perez is an upside play, but there’s plenty of risk in wasting a roster spot on a guy who might not contribute.

Derek Holland - SP
It’s difficult to take anything legitimate out of Holland’s five-start 2014 other than that he’s healthy, which is of course a good thing. He looked great in his 37 innings, issuing only five free passes, while striking out 25. He’s always been a bit of a hit or miss pitcher though, and with such few innings on the season, it’s possible we just didn’t get to those “miss” starts. The normal Holland is plenty good though, and he has the talent to put together a season with an ERA in the low 3.00s, especially given the new offensive environment. Because he’s both solid and retains upside, he’s likely to be overdrafted when it’s all said and done. We’ll get into draft value a little closer to the start of the season, but as is, he’s a valuable starter who has some room to grow (assuming he avoids his dog this offseason).

Neftali Feliz - RP
He managed 30 innings and reclaimed the closers job after the trade of Joakim Soria, but Feliz isn’t the guy he used to be — at least not yet. He’s a mid-tier closer until he gets back to his bat missing ways, and despite the 1.99 ERA, he’s not a lock to hold onto the closers role in 2015.

Role Players

Mitch Moreland - 1B
Michael Choice - OF
Choice has a chance to be a nice little fantasy asset, especially since Alex Rios is no longer occupying a corner-outfield spot. Still, he “power-hitting” corner outfielder is going to have to do better than the Mendoza line in 2015, something he couldn’t quite manage last season.

Nick Tepesch - SP
Robbie Ross - SP/RP

Prospects for 2015

Luis Sardinas - SS
Luke Jackson - SP
A great start to Double-A gave way to brutal results upon a promotion to Triple-A. Control problems were to blame, as they’ve been for much of his career. While he looked to have figured it out in Frisco, he relapsed badly in Round Rock. If he can mitigate his walks in some capacity, he’s got a chance at being a mid-rotation starter. If he can’t, he’s got the stuff to thrive in the bullpen, though it’d be a waste of his ability to hold his velocity deep into games.

Jake Thompson - SP
Thompson has more command than Jackson and the stuff to match, but he’s two years younger and has barely pitched in the upper minors. It’s unlikely that Thompson sees time in the majors this season, but given the injuries the Rangers experienced in 2013, it’s hard to count anything out. He has the upside of a mid-rotation starter.

Alex (Chi Chi) Gonzalez - SP
Flying through the minors, Gonzalez might be the most likely arm in the system to contribute meaningfully if a starter is needed. He’s got a ton of polish, but isn’t a pure pitchability guy either. His fantasy ceiling is limited because he’s not as much of a bat-misser as he is just a really good pitcher, but he’ll be well worth owning down the line, in the vein of Martin Perez.

Corey Knebel - RP
The owner of the best chance to supplant Feliz in the closer role, Knebel pairs a mid-90s fastball with a hellacious curveball. He should be an important part of the bullpen, be it as a closer or setup man. He’ll have to earn it though, as guys without options will likely be given preference unless he’s dominant.

Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cdgoldstein
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