October 27, 2014

Playoff Prospectus

Petit Comes Up Big

by Sahadev Sharma

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The Royals have seen Lorenzo Cain emerge as a star under the national spotlight in the postseason, but the Giants have their own secret weapon who has thrived under the bright lights of October. As surprising as it may be, long reliever Yusmeiro Petit has come up huge each time Bruce Bochy has called upon him this postseason and Saturday night was no different.

One could argue that Bochy took a little longer than he should have to pull starter Ryan Vogelsong. After Alex Gordon reached on a force out in the third inning, he slid in safely stealing second as Buster Posey's throw ended up hitting him and ricocheting into the outfield. Cain followed with an infield single and with men on the corners, Eric Hosmer hit a soft groundball and Vogelsong failed to touch the base when covering first. The third out seemed just out of reach for Vogelsong as he walked the next batter and it looked like the perfect time for Bochy to go to the pen. However, Bochy instead used a mound visit and seemed content to try and let Vogelsong get that final out and wriggle his way out of the inning.

That proved to be tougher than expected as the Royals tacked on three more runs and jumped out to a 4-1 lead.

Eventually, Bochy would go to Jean Machi to finish off the third and would lean on Petit after that. Petit tossed three shutout innings and allowed just two hits while striking out a pair. This wasn’t the first time Petit has save the Giants this October. In Game Four of the NLCS, Vogelsong was largely ineffective and lasted just three innings. Petit came in and held the St. Louis Cardinals offense down as the Giants offense came back from a 4-1 deficit to win the game. Saturday night wasn’t much different as Petit shutdown the opposition once again and San Francisco’s offense came up big.

The heroes on offense didn’t come as much of a surprise for the Giants, with Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval among the many who came up with big hits in key situations as the San Francisco bats not only erased a three-run deficit, but eventually put the game out of reach.

While their production is hardly unexpected, Petit’s may have caught some a little off guard. He’s been one of the best relievers in the postseason, tossing 12 huge innings across three games (all Giants’ victories, including six in an 18-inning thriller against the Washington Nationals), giving up just four total hits while striking out 13 and allowing zero runs.

Though his postseason production may come as a surprise to some, Petit had actually been quite strong in the regular season as well. Tossing 117 innings as both a starter and reliever, Petit had a solid 3.69 ERA (2.78 FIP) and had very impressive peripherals, including a 28.9% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate, pretty nice numbers for a long reliever. Petit has been so strong for the Giants, wondering if he should’ve started the game over Vogelsong, with Tim Lincecum waiting as the long reliever if needed, isn’t such a crazy suggestion.

But, alas, even though Vogelsong struggled once again, the Giants came out on top, again. Something they’ve done in all seven of Vogelsong’s career postseason starts, regardless of how he’s actually performed.

Now the Giants have Madison Bumgarner taking the mound in Game Five, giving them the clear advantage to end the weekend just one win away from their third World Series in five years. No, every move Bochy made may not have been the right one, but as has happened quite often in this postseason for both he and Ned Yost, things have worked out pretty well in the end.

Sahadev Sharma is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @sahadevsharma
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