October 12, 2014

Playoff Prospectus

PECOTA Odds and Game Two Previews

by Mike Gianella

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Giants/Cardinals

Madison Bumgarner continued his postseason dominance, putting up 7 2/3 shutout innings to lead the Giants to a 3-0 win in Game One of the NLCS. Here are the lineups and PECOTA projections for Game Two.

Giants (Jake Peavy) at Cardinals (Lance Lynn) 8:07 pm ET
PECOTA odds of winning: 49% Giants, 51% Cardinals

Projected Starting Lineups

Injuries/Availability: The Cardinals enter the game with no significant injury issues. Michael Morse did not play in Game One, so it is unclear if he will be available in Game Two as a starter or as a pinch-hitter.

Outlook: With St. Louis losing Game One at home, the pressure squarely falls on Lynn to even the series and send the Cardinals to San Francisco tied at one game apiece. Lynn is no stranger to the postseason, although this is arguably the first season of Lynn’s career that he is being relied upon as a rotation stalwart—of his 22 postseason appearances entering tonight, only six have come as a starter. The last time the Cardinals faced the Giants in the postseason, in 2012, Lynn didn’t make it past the fourth inning in either of his two starts.

Peavy is making just his seventh postseason career start, but is coming off of 5 2/3 masterful shutout innings against the Nationals in the NLDS. Peavy has faced the Cardinals three times in the postseason and has a 9.88 ERA in 13 2/3 innings. Two of those three starts came a baseball lifetime ago, in 2005 and 2006, when Peavy was a staff ace with the San Diego Padres. His last postseason start against the Cardinals was in the 2013 World Series for the Red Sox. Peavy survived a shaky two-run first to go four innings before he was removed for a pinch-hitter in a Boston loss.

This is only the second game for the Cardinals in this postseason where they will face a right-handed starting pitcher. Mike Matheny will probably keep the same hitters in the lineup but use the order he utilized in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Dodgers. Facing a righty could work to Cardinals' disadvantage; St. Louis was only 21st in the majors in OPS against right handers, as opposed to ninth against lefties in 2014.

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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