September 25, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Theory-Driven Versus Context-Driven Strategy

by Jeff Quinton

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As this fantasy baseball season ends and a new fantasy baseball off season begins, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at why I take the approach I do when writing about fantasy baseball. Consequently, I do so.

As I see it, there are two styles of strategy that can be used in fantasy baseball: (i) theory driven and (ii) context driven. While I write about theories and concepts in the majority of my articles, I am a firm believer in context-driven strategy, especially for fantasy baseball. Before I go any further, please find my definitions for theory driven and context driven strategy below:

Theory-Driven Strategy: The development of high-level plans in which one begins with assumed, overarching truths, and then applies those truths to all subsequent decisions

Context-Driven Strategy: The development of high-level plans in which one begins with granular details, and then selects one’s approach given the details and circumstance

Why am I a supporter of context-driven strategy? Because I believe that fantasy baseball leagues are too unique in structure or circumstance and that fantasy baseball owners are too smart and reactive for theory driven strategies to be very useful. Before I bash something that I just introduced, I should probably give some examples of theory driven strategy. Examples: “Do not draft a pitcher in the first two rounds,” “Make sure to get a top-tier second baseman and shortstop,” “Don’t trade for minor-league pitchers,” “Always get the best player in the trade,” “Avoid Player X.”

As we can see, theory-driven strategy manifests itself in the form of blanket advice, which is not very helpful given the uniqueness of every fantasy baseball league (my favorite example of this is when everyone is targeting the same “sleepers”.) Blanket advice is and will always be popular, though, because of the human desire to shed responsibility in decision making and the human tendency to use heuristics when making decisions about risk. Even more dangerous is that blanket advice will occasionally yield positive results (just like any bad bet) because we are dealing with a probabilistic future. Because we are more likely to respond to good results regardless of correlation or causation, we are likely to take theory driven strategy’s blanket advice bait.

Note 1: It is a good thing that there is not a strategy that always ensures victory no matter the situation or league type. As evidence I present you with Tic Tac Toe. That game is boring and the worst.

Note 2: Overarching theories can be helpful so long as they are used for driving conversation and getting us to look at something in a different way, and not used blindly as a decision making tool.

So we get it, theory-driven strategy’s blanket advice is not what we are looking for if we are trying to be the best fantasy baseball players we can. That said, theory driven strategy being unsatisfactory does not, in itself, make context driven strategy satisfactory. So why is context driven strategy satisfactory and how do we do context driven strategy? Context driven strategy works for all the reasons theory driven strategy does not work. It takes into account the little details that might matter (league norms, trade market tendencies, who likes to draft sleepers, who is snake bitten by certain players, who is risk averse, who is a good negotiator) when formulating a plan. Consequently, in order to give ourselves the best odds we need a strategy that is tailored to each specific situation in each specific league. Let us take a look at how we should go about using context driven strategy.

A Tool-Based Approach
While context-driven strategy starts with the details, it obviously needs to progress from there. Instead of using the same tool for every problem like theory-driven strategy, context-driven strategy allows for us to select the proper tool for the situation because we have analyzed the details and the situation. Fortunately (I think), this is what I have been writing about and what we have been working towards all year (I hope). All year I have preached that we start by checking our assumptions and knowing our league mates and then attempt to apply a concept if applicable. As my favorite strategy professors used to say, “we are adding tools to our tool box.” I love this metaphor because it explains that strategy is not about finding a panacea or discovering an advantage that will allow us to reign forever. Rather, strategy is dynamic and time sensitive; thus, the more tools we have in our tool box the better our chances of choosing a near-optimal strategy.

As far “tools” go, we have put a bunch in our tool box this season: prospect theory, strategic agility, risk aversion, systems of thought, success traps, league norms, decision framing, negotiation styles, anchoring, confirmation bias, heuristics, the disposition effect, and others. That is nice (author pats himself on the back). But where do we go from here? What is the plan for the offseason? Answers to these questions follow:

Inventory and Maintenance
Inventory is straightforward: account for the tools we possess. Maintenance is also straightforward: keep our tools working as they should. This offseason we will take a look at the various concepts we discussed, check on the assumptions we made (shocker), and hopefully refine and improve our understanding of and ability to use our tools. We may even try to quantify some of the biases we observe, but finding that data is tricky.

Research and Development
R&D is the most fun part (for me at least). This is finding and developing new tools. I will continue to search through literature, journals, websites, anything really to find concepts that apply to fantasy baseball strategy and decision making. Also, if you are feeling generous and you come across something you think I should take a look at, feel free to let me know.

Enjoy the end of the season and the playoffs if that is your thing (or if you are looking for something new). In the meantime, we will look at ways to continue to improve our context-driven strategic approach.

Jeff Quinton is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jjq01
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