September 24, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

Jumping Ship

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

the archives are now free. All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible. Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month Recurring subscription - cancel anytime. Subscribe for $39.95 for one year a 33% savings over the monthly price! Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

“I will go down with this ship,” Dido sings so eloquently on her smash hit, White Flag. “I won’t put my hands up, and surrender.”

Dido was an idiot. Abandon the sinking vessels that these players represent in dynasty leagues. Get out while there’s still time.

MLB Veterans

Craig: Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, Indians
Swisher has long been a “glue guy” for my fantasy squads. He wasn’t going to win you any leagues (perhaps outside of his 35-homer 2006), but he played almost every game and produced 20-plus home runs from 2006-2013. Still, 2013 saw a relatively large dropoff from the year before, with his OPS dipping more than 70 points. This season saw more of the same, as he never got untracked, producing career lows in average, OBP, slugging, games played, and walk rate, while experiencing a career-high strikeout rate.

Given his age (he’ll be 34 next season), there’s not much hope for Swisher to rediscover his pre-2013 form. He has undergone surgery on both his knees, providing the double-edged sword of optimism that a healthy Swisher can return to his prior production, but also skepticism that someone who required surgery on both knees is destined to be both healthy and productive for any meaningful stretch. I’m not always a believer in the idea of preferring to be off a guy a year early rather than a year late, but in this case, Swisher’s upside doesn’t justify the risk.

Ben: CC Sabathia, LHP, Yankees
I loved Sabathia as a buy-low candidate heading into the year, figuring he’d provide me with around 15 wins, 175 strikeouts and an ERA a bit south of 4.00. I fully accepted that his days as a no. 1-2 fantasy starter were well in the past, but considering how late he was falling in drafts, I thought he’d be a good value at the back end of many a rotation. Yikes.

It wasn’t just that Sabathia was a spectacular failure this year, posting a 5.28 ERA in 46 innings before going down with knee injuries. It was how he failed. For the third straight year, Sabathia saw a marked decline in velocity, with a fastball that averaged just 88.8 mph. He gave up a whopping 10 homers in his eight starts. And he relied too heavily on a changeup that’s now separated from his fastball by less than five mph. Sabathia will turn 35 next season, has over 2,800 MLB innings on his arm, is dealing with a lower-body injury after struggling with weight issues for most of his career, and has seen a stark decline in velocity since 2011. Given that his home ballpark and all the physical factors are lined up against him, I’d rather be pleasantly surprised by a resurgence than count on him as a bounce-back candidate.

Craig: Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants
68, 79, 72. Those are Lincecum’s ERA+s over the last three seasons. He provided a bit of hope this year tossing the second no-hitter of his career, but hasn’t been the same pitcher in the second half of the season. Over 19 first-half starts, he threw 113 innings, producing a 3.66 ERA while striking out 101, walking 44, and allowing 97 hits. Over 40 1/3 second-half innings, Lincecum has a 8.03 ERA, striking out 33, walking 19, and allowing 56 hits.

That’s a marked difference in hits allowed, and while he’s not nearly as bad as his second-half stats, it’s unlikely that he’s as good as the first-half pitcher either. Lincecum’s decreased stuff has caused him to adapt to pitching on the fringes of the strike zone, getting batters to chase pitches rather than beating them in the zone with the raw quality of his stuff. This explains the rise in walk rate from his halcyon days, as well as the reduced strikeout rate. It’s also likely that Lincecum’s complex mechanics are becoming more and more difficult for the 30-year-old to repeat over the course of a full-season workload. As with Swisher, I’m not certain that Lincecum won’t be useful over some stretch next season, but I am content with him being someone else’s problem in the period that he isn’t obviously helpful.

Ben: Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers
“If only the Dodgers would solve their outfield logjam,” we’ve all lamented in a fantasy column at some point. “There’s so much untapped fantasy potential waiting in the wings!” It’s true that there’s an abundance of outfielders to consider in LA, with Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Joc Pederson, and Ethier all factoring into the equation in 2015. And maybe a trade would help provide extra playing time for one or two of the players listed above. But even if Ethier gets the chance to surpass 500 PA once again in 2015, there’s no reason to expect him to serve as a fantasy stalwart moving forward.

Ethier is hitting .249/.320/.369 in 370 PA this season, posting his lowest walk rate since 2006 and the second-highest strikeout rate of his career. He’s down at .205/.271/.250 against left-handed pitchers, and the power that once made him such an intriguing fantasy option has all but evaporated, leaving him with four homers. Ethier will be 33 for the majority of the 2015 season, so it’s not as if a modest bounce back is out of the question. But it’s tough to envision him outperforming his .272/.360/.423 line from 2013, and during that campaign, he was still limited to 12 homers and four steals. Ethier can provide that type of value again, sure, but that essentially makes him a rich man’s Daniel Nava, not a player you want to rely on as a significant fantasy cog. Feel free to draft Ethier as depth if he falls in drafts, but counting on him as a starter even in moderately deep leagues is a bad call.

Post-Prospects

Ben: Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins
We’ve now entered the “failed outfield prospects” portion of the program, and it’s not going to be pretty. It’s tempting to portray Hicks as someone who was always a better MLB prospect than a fantasy one due to his defensive and on-base capabilities, but that’s not really true. Once upon a time, Hicks was viewed as a potential 20-plus-homer, 25-plus-steal threat; a legitimate five-category fantasy beast who could bat anywhere in the first three spots in a good MLB lineup.

Hicks still shows impressive patience at the plate, but most of his other skills have either evaporated or are limited by the utility of his hit tool. His .342 OBP this season is respectable, but it’s comes with just a .212 average in 201 MLB PA. Hicks has hit just six homers and stolen just seven bases across three levels, and hasn’t made a real impact in any counting stat since 2012, when he hit 13 homers and stole 32 bases in Double-A. Hicks will still be just 25 next season, so it’s possible he’s a slightly late bloomer who can still develop into a league-average hitter with better secondary skills. But that’s not of much help to fantasy owners, and I’d rather buy in a year late on Hicks than continue to try and predict a breakout that may never come.

Craig: Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
Somehow only 26 years old, Brown has finished the season on a relatively positive note. Even so, the former top-five prospect has been a consistent disappointment throughout his career. While the early portions of that struggle can be blamed on the Phillies unwillingness to stick with the peaks and valleys of a young player, the Brown has totaled over 1,000 plate appearances the last two seasons and continues to be the same player for the most part.

This isn’t to absolve Philadelphia of course, but merely to suggest that their early tinkering seems to have had lasting effects. Brown seemed to have broken out last year, posting an above-average OPS+ for the first time in his career, but has followed that up with the worst performance of his career. He is largely the same player he was last year, posting comparable walk and strikeout rates, but he’s hitting the ball on the ground 50 percent of the time, not necessarily a positive when you play in Citizens Bank Park and aren’t notoriously fast. I suspect there will be many people hoping that a change of scenery will fix Brown, and it’s possible that’s the case, but there aren’t so many signs of life here. Outside of an extremely aberrant first half in 2013, Brown hasn’t been a productive major leaguer.

Ben: Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox
We’ve now entered the “failed third-base prospects” portion of the program, and it’s not going to be pretty. When the 2014 season began, it was still easy to invent reasons why Middlebrooks could become a successful major leaguer. Sure, his 2013 season was abysmal, but he battled injuries on-and-off, and we all know what a wrist boo-boo can do to power. The memory of his hot start as a rookie in 2012 was still somewhat fresh, and his potential 25-plus-homer power in Fenway was all too alluring.

2014 has shown us that Middlebrooks more closely resembles the tragically flawed player we saw in 2013 than he does the hotshot rookie from which so many dreams were born in 2012. He’s hit .191/.256/.265 in 234 MLB PA this year and just .231/.277/.375 in 112 Triple-A PA, and while it’s tempting to blame his lack of performance on injury once again, the truth is that Middlebrooks lacks the pitch recognition and barrel-to-ball skills to utilize his plus-plus raw power. The Red Sox seem determined not to give up on Middlebrooks, according to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe, but fantasy owners shouldn’t be so reluctant. If your league has 16 or fewer teams, WMB belongs on waivers.

Craig: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
.246, .252, .234, .235. Those are Moustakas’ True Averages (TAv) by season starting with his debut in 2011. Not only are those numbers pretty bad, but they’re heading in the wrong direction. While the third base crop is generally weak, and Moustakas’ 15 homers give you something to dream about, this is going to be a second consecutive season with a sub-700 OPS, and third out of four. Anecdotally, he’s performed better since his recall on June 1st, but the numbers don’t bear that out. Okay, fine, they bear out “better” but that doesn’t equal “worthwhile,” unless you dig a .237/.292/.385 slash line.

Moustakas’ value is saved by the grace of baseball’s offensive decline, allowing his numbers to look at least a little more palatable compared to his peers. Still, he’s never posted a league average offensive season and is generally somewhere close to 20 percent below league average. After close to 2,000 plate appearances of this type of “production,” it’s fair to wash your hands of him.

Prospects

Craig: Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers
It’s easy not to quit on Lee given his big bonus and one-time top of the rotation future. He struggled at Triple-A this year but is only 22 years old and just about everyone struggles at Albuquerque. The prospect world has been fairly vigilant in it’s efforts to constantly revise (read: lower) expectations on Lee. He debuted at no. 54 on our 2011 list, dropped to no. 70 in 2012, and has ranked nos. 87 and 84, respectively, the last two years.

There’s something telling about the Dodgers usage pattern with him, though, in that they won’t use him. Rather than turn to the erstwhile top prospect in their time of need, they sent two prospects to Philadelphia for the faint pulse of Roberto Hernandez, intentionally gave Kevin Correia multiple starts, on purpose, and also started something called a Carlos Frias. There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of opportunity coming in LA for Lee, and while a trade is always a possibility, the ultimate upside of a back of the rotation starter just doesn’t seem worth holding onto. Barring a new pitch (a la Jake Odorizzi’s split-change), dropping Lee won’t come back to bite you.

Ben: John Lamb, LHP, Royals
We tend to brush aside Tommy John surgery as an unfortunate but inevitable speed bump on the road to a major-league career now, and that attitude is a testament to just how successful the opreation has proven. But not everyone escapes Tommy John with his former abilities intact, and Lamb is one of the more prominent examples of the surgery’s dangers. Lamb had a miserable 2013 season rebounding from TJ, with diminished velocity and command and stuff that failed to impress even against High-A hitters. Considering Lamb was once considered one of the better left-handed starting prospects in the game, his 2013 campaign represented a significant fall from grace.

Lamb’s 2014 has been better, no doubt. He put up a 3.97 ERA in 138 1/3 innings in Triple-A, striking out nearly a batter per inning and regaining some of the velocity he failed to show in 2013. Lamb’s control still isn’t what it once was, as his 11 percent walk rate can attest, but at least he pitched competently in the upper minors. That’s all well and good, and Lamb’s persistence is to be commended, but it doesn’t do much for fantasy owners. With the lessened quality of his stuff and his inconsistent command, his upside now lies as a back-end MLB starter, and there’s a good chance he falls short of even that modest benchmark. It’s always a good idea to check back in on prospects who see their stocks fall due to injury, and so doing due diligence on Lamb this season was a smart call. Unfortunately, we can all stop paying attention now, and wish Lamb the best in his recovery without considering him for fantasy purposes.

Craig: D.J. Davis, OF, Blue Jays
He’s only 19, so this is an aggressive move, but one that is justified. Davis has spent three years in the Blue Jays system and finally spent his first year in full-season ball, posting an OPS of .583. While power was never a part of his game, Davis was/is supposed to profile atop the lineup, and a .268 OBP isn’t going to cut it. His best asset is his game-changing speed; unfortunately, he changed things for the worse for Lansing this year, getting caught 20 times en route to swiping 19 bags. Big tools are alluring, but they are ultimately feckless when wielded by someone who doesn’t know how to use them.

Ben: Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays
Another player coming off of a substantial injury, Lee’s underwhelming performance in 2014 is understandable to a certain degree. Yes, he hit just .203/.287/.276 in 357 PA in Triple-A, but he missed nearly the entire 2013 season, and the knee injury from which he’s recovering was quite gruesome. It’s not Lee’s batting line I’m so worried about, however, as his lack of speed. Lee stole just 12 bases in 17 attempts this year, and when he was last healthy he nabbed 37 bags in 46 tries at Double-A in 2012. Lee has never had a super impressive profile with the bat, but there was the hope that he’d be able to hit .260-.270 with decent on-base skills, leading to an impact in runs and stolen bases. If you take away his 25-plus steal potential, he becomes a pretty useless fantasy option, though, and perhaps more likely to serve as a utility infielder than a starting shortstop in real life, too. He’s not longer a top-150 fantasy prospect, and he might not make a top-200 cut despite his proximity to the majors.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cdgoldstein
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here