September 10, 2014

Prospect Profile

Francisco Mejia

by Chris Mellen

Printer-friendly

Contact Author

When I see a player for the first time I like to go in as cold as possible because it is important to put aside any preconceived opinions that can influence the initial assessment and, ultimately, the report. These days, that's easier said than done, but I do try to keep it to a minimum. Over the course of the season I target players on my “must see” list for various reasons. The goal is to cover the teams I see from top to bottom, leaving no stone unturned, but there’s also due diligence needed on certain players because of reports passed along from contacts or as follow-up from prior looks.

Cleveland Indians catching prospect Francisco Mejia was one of the top players I had circled this year. He caught my eye during our Top 10 discussions last offseason and his likely assignment to the New York-Penn League was going to provide me with the chance to sit on him for the first time. If you read my scouting report, you know I came away impressed and put high marks on Mejia's tools and potential, but there’s a lot more about why I liked him that goes beyond the framework of the reports.

I first caught Mejia during batting practice before the opener of a three-game set. What initially jumped out at me was the body, which was a little less developed and on the small side for a catcher. He’s only 18 years old and just entering the age band where you typically start to see physical maturation, but it was a concern I noted because of the rigors of his position. These thoughts also translated into game action as there were occasions when Mejia got nicked up or took a pounding, and my mind went to the toll that will take on him. It can also slow development on the offensive side if he’s wearing down from the grind. Mejia will definitely need physical growth over the next handful of years for his profile to continue advancing. I did feel confident, based on his body type and the room he had on his frame, that there is a good chance for progression in this area to occur, but it will be something to keep tracking during follow-ups.

When Mejia stepped into the cage, the raw offensive tools began to sing. I like batting practice as a gauge of a player’s swing and to see the charge they put into the ball. It was apparent after a few swings that Mejia possesses plus or better bat speed, along with a ton of life in his hands. He stung the ball with backspin from both sides of the plate while flashing the ability to produce carry. Of course, batting practice is only a cursory feel, so it was encouraging to see this aspect carry over to game action. Mejia showed the same easy stroke and knack for squaring up velocity against live pitching. This is a major positive sign for a player of Mejia's age facing much more experienced competition, and it was a significant driver, on the positive side, of the 55 future grade I put on his hit tool.

Mejia does have some flaws in his secondary skills at the plate that he will need to fix for the hit tool to reach its full potential. He was ultra-aggressive in the box, hacking early and often, with a heavy appetite for attacking any fastball around the zone. The strike zone management skills are extremely raw, but I absolutely loved the mindset shown to let loose and drive pitches with confidence. He's trying to do damage. The buy-in to develop more of a plan at higher levels will be vital to avoid getting himself out. It’s the reason I settled in at a 55 for his hit tool and didn’t go higher. I saw the ability to be a true plus hitter, but the crudeness of his secondary skills led me to downgrade the overall potential for now.

Despite his smaller statue, Mejia has legit thunder in his stick thanks to his bat speed and strong hands. He drove the ball with authority in game action, including just missing a home run to right field when batting left-handed. When I looked into the future and put the offensive clues together, it led me to grade his future power at 55. There’s strong potential for Mejia to produce 15 to 20 home runs during his peak and also log 30 to 40 doubles. Paired with a batting average in the .280s, that line illustrates how loud his offensive tools are.

The offense isn’t the only reason I feel Mejia's profile has the makings of an All Star–caliber player. Mejia’s arm strength presented itself when he was challenged on stolen bases. It's borderline elite. The ball explodes out of his hand on a line with power to second base. There’s accuracy as well when he is throwing at full force. The release does need some work, as he can be on the slower side and get tangled up. This showed with a 2.07-second pop to second when Mejia rushed to get out of his crouch and lost fluidity. He did produce two 1.87 pops, but tended to cock his arm deeply when throwing, affecting the times. One positive sign is that Mejia fires his feet extremely quickly coming out of his crouch. With some cleanup of his release, I can see times around 1.8 and even a tad better. The arm has the potential to put a halt to opponents' running games.

The rawest aspect of Mejia’s game is his catching defense. The physical skills are certainly there: He’s agile, with quick reflexes, and his feet serve him well when moving laterally and staying square to the ball. But Mejia isn’t great at staying big when fronting offerings in the dirt and his ball control suffers. His glove hand also drifts and stabs. The receiving skills are presently below average, but I see plenty of growth potential is this aspect. Mejia demonstrates an aptitude for what’s going on in the game and is highly engaged. He also embraces the catcher's role in the center of the action; his energy level in the field is extremely high. The key going forward will be learning to slow things down a bit and channeling his focus on the finer points.

As with many young players in this age bracket, Mejia is far from reaching his ceiling, particularly because he has a dual development profile. The risk is high, but putting a 70 on the overall future potential felt right. I’m sure there are going to be growing pains. In fact, I am expecting them sooner rather than later. Still, I feel confident that Mejia is a special player in the making.

Chris Mellen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @ChrisMellen
Click here to see Chris's other articles. You can contact Chris by clicking here