August 13, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

Our Top 50 Dynasty League Prospects

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

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When Bret isn’t busy ruining our lives by creating the Bat Signal, he’s busy ranking things. Like, everything. I mean, look at this.

meme courtesy of @EricNeville

He actually made that ranking. It stunk.

Anyway, the Appels didn’t fall far from the tree (name humor) in this family, and sometimes we get the urge to rank things ourselves. Okay, fine, Ben gets the urge and I get a nervous breakdown. Nonetheless, what follows is at top 50 fantasy prospect ranking from each of us, and then an ensuing squabble about who did what wrong.

Enjoy.

Craig’s Top 50	Ben’s Top 50
1. Oscar Taveras, OF, STL	1. Javier Baez, 2B, CHC
2. Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC	2. Oscar Taveras, OF, STL
3. Byron Buxton, CF, MIN	3. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, CHC
4. Javier Baez, 2B, CHC	4. Byron Buxton, OF, MIN
5. Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM	5. Carlos Correa, SS, HOU
6. Addison Russell, SS, CHC	6. Addison Russell, SS, CHC
7. Carlos Correa, SS, HOU	7. Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
8. Joey Gallo, 3B, TEX	8. Joey Gallo, 3B, TEX
9. Taijuan Walker, SP, SEA	8. Taijuan Walker, SP, SEA
10. Corey Seager, SS, LAD	9. Archie Bradley, SP, ARI
11. Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN	11. Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN
12. Archie Bradley, SP, ARI	12. Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE
13. Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/OF, CHC	13. Joc Pederson, OF, LAD
14. Joc Pederson, OF, LAD	14. Mookie Betts, OF/2B, BOS
15. Lucas Giolito, SP, WAS	15. Arismendy Alcantara, OF, CHC
16. Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE	16. Lucas Giolito, SP, WAS
17. Jonathan Gray, SP, COL	17. Robert Stephenson, SP, CIN
18. Robert Stephenson, SP, CIN	18. Corey Seager, SS, LAD
19. Jorge Soler, OF, CHC	19. Jonathan Gray, SP, COL
20. Mookie Betts, OF/2B, BOS	20. Jorge Soler, OF, CHC
21. Nick Williams, OF, TEX	21. Blake Swihart, C, BOS
22. Carlos Rodon, SP, CHW	22. Josh Bell, OF, PIT
23. David Dahl, OF, COL	23. Andrew Heaney, SP, MIA
24. Josh Bell, OF, PIT	24. Alex Meyer, SP, MIN
25. Dylan Bundy, SP, BAL	25. Stephen Piscotty, OF, STL
26. Julio Urias, SP, LAD	26. Nick Williams, OF, TEX
27. Daniel Norris, SP, TOR	27. Raimel Tapia, OF, COL
28. Stephen Piscotty, OF, STL	28. Carlos Rodon, SP, CHW
29. Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, CHC	29. Dylan Bundy, SP, BAL
30. Rymer Liriano, OF, SD	30. David Dahl, OF, COL
31. Raimel Tapia, OF, COL	31. Julio Urias, SP, LAD
32. Matt Wisler, SP, SD	32. Daniel Norris, SP, TOR
33. Alex Meyer, SP, MIN	33. Clint Frazier, OF, CLE
34. Jameson Taillon, SP, PIT	34. Maikel Franco, 3B/1B, PHI
35. Blake Swihart, C, BOS	35. Henry Owens, SP, BOS
36. Jorge Alfaro, C, TEX	36. Tyler Glasnow, SP, PIT
37. Tyler Glasnow, SP, PIT	37. Tim Anderson, SS, CHW
38. Maikel Franco, 1B/3B, PHI	38. Jorge Alfaro, C, TEX
39. Henry Owens, SP, BOS	39. Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, CHC
40. Tim Anderson, SS, CHW	40. Rymer Liriano, OF, SD
41. Jimmy Nelson, SP, MIL	41. Aaron Sanchez, SP, TOR
42. Andrew Heaney, SP, MIA	42. Matt Wisler, SP, SD
43. Austin Meadows, OF, PIT	43. Kyle Zimmer, SP, KC
44. Clint Frazier, OF, CLE	44. Jameson Taillon, SP, PIT
45. Kyle Zimmer, SP , KC	45. Braden Shipley, SP, ARI
46. Dalton Pompey, OF, TOR	46. Domingo Santana, OF, HOU
47. Domingo Santana, OF, HOU	47. Jimmy Nelson, SP, MIL
48. Chi Chi Gonzalez, SP, TEX	48. Sean Manaea, SP, KC
49. Mark Appel, SP, HOU	49. Kohl Stewart, SP, MIN
50. Brandon Finnegan, SP, KC	50. Mark Appel, SP, HOU

Craig’s Toughest Omission: Kohl Stewart, SP, MIN
I love Stewart, and had him on the first couple iterations of this list, but between his level (Low-A), lack of innings (81 2/3 IP), being named after a department store (Kohl’s), and season ending arm injury (shoulder impingement from sleeping wrong), I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. I don’t believe the injury is serious in the slightest, but it both a) exists, and b) shortened his season at least a bit. He’ll still throw plenty of innings in 2015, but I do wonder if there’ll be a domino effect in terms of an innings cap that’ll come into play down the line, and might delay when he could arrive in the big leagues. It’s all hypothetical, but I couldn’t avoid it in my mind’s eye, and so he’s stuck at 51. I don’t feel good about it.

Ben’s Toughest Omission: Jake Marisnick, OF, Astros
A few weeks ago on TINO, I said Marisnick was a no-doubt top 50 dynasty league prospect following his trade to the Astros, and I staunchly defended him against the narrow-minded, wrong, stupid Mr. Goldstein. Yet it would appear that the joke is on me, as I cannot in good faith rank Marisnick above any of the players I have here. I get that Marisnick doesn’t profile as a player who will hit for a high average, but he has power and speed and I think he’ll get on base often enough to contribute meaningfully in runs, too. He’ll have to battle a bit with Domingo Santana for playing time, but if he wins out, we’re looking at a player who could hit .240 with 15 homers and 20-plus steals next season, with more power and a higher average potentially to come. If this list went to 55, Marisnick would be on it and I’d be confident about having him on here.

Craig’s Ranking He Feels Worst About: Henry Owens, SP, BOS
I don’t know what to do with Owens. Ben said of Alfaro while in the midst of ranking “he looks ten spots too high and too low at the same time,” which encapsulates how I feel about Owens. He’s got the upside of a no. 2 fantasy starter in my eyes, even if my gut keeps telling me he’s a real life number four. I keep wondering if the change is going to miss bats at the highest level, and if his on/off command is going to leave him vulnerable to elite bats. Yet every time I turn around, Owens is throwing six innings with near-double-digit strikeouts and two hits. There’s clearly something preventing batters from squaring him up and I can’t ignore that even if I don’t think he’s a front-end option. I don’t know what to do with Owens, and I don’t feel good about it.

Ben’s Ranking He Feels Worst About: Matt Wisler, SP, SD
Matt Wisler is non-buttered wheat toast served with lukewarm tap water boring to me. He doesn’t have big upside. He doesn’t have one particularly dazzling pitch. He doesn’t miss an insane amount of bats. But he really doesn’t have any weaknesses either. Wisler’s command isn’t elite, but he’s never walked more than 6.8 percent of the batters he’s faced at any level. He lacks a punch-out pitch, but has three above-average offerings. And he has the best contextual factors you could ask for for a pitcher, aside from the Padres also being good. Still, Wisler’s been billed as a no. 2-3 fantasy starter for a while now, and I can’t help but wonder if that’s too high. Petco is great and all, but I still see Wisler as more of a no. 4-5 fantasy starter with some better performances in his peak. That’s still lofty praise, but I have a bad feeling ranking him ahead of more talented pitchers like Zimmer and Taillon.

What Ben Got Wrong (by Craig): Rymer Liriano, OF, SD
Already up in the big leagues, I’m not sure what Liriano did to deserve being ranked behind Tim Anderson. As much as I was out on Anderson and then in on him after seeing him live, the kid is at High-A and recently fractured his wrist. They’re similar players to me, so I understand wanting to group them together, but the (now) three level gap, as well as success at the upper levels more than makes up for the positional difference between the two in my eyes, especially with questions surrounding Anderson’s ability to stick at shortstop. It is only a couple spots of course, and not worth freaking out about but I do think Liriano deserves to be ranked significantly higher thanks to his ability to provide value in speed and power departments, combined with his immediacy. I’m not sure what Ben is doing here, and I don’t feel good about it.

Ben’s Retort:
Listen, I really like Liriano, so it’s odd for me to have to have to tear him down here. But it’s not like he’s a five-category contributor, and he has the worst contextual factors you can possibly imagine, playing in Petco and batting in the Padres lineup. I’m hopeful he’ll hit 15-plus homers and swipe 20 bases next year, but honestly, I view him like I view Marisnick, just with a higher but still non-elite average. Liriano is good and he should be owned in 14-team leagues next year, but Anderson has the potential to produce across all five main offensive categories and to do so at shortstop. And it’s not like I’m gambling on a player in Rookie ball here—Anderson was succeeding in High-A, and should start there again next year as a 21-year-old. I don’t think ranking Liriano ahead of Anderson is nuts—they’re only four spots apart in my rankings—but don’t make it seem like there’s no Rymer reason for slotting Liriano behind Anderson, either.

What Craig Got Wrong (by Ben/world): Chi Chi Gonzalez, SP, TEX
I love the nickname too, so I get where Craig is coming from here, but Gonzalez doesn’t belong on this list. His numbers in Double-A are very good this year, what with the 2.11 ERA and the 1.17 WHIP. But he’s falling just short of a 20 percent strikeout rate, he’s walking batters at a decent clip, and he doesn’t have the profile of an extreme bat-misser at the next level. If Gonzalez was a Padre or a Giant, that would be fine. But I’m not super optimistic about a no. 3-4 MLB starter and no. 5-6 fantasy starter who’ll pitch half his games in Arlington. Gonzalez is definitely a top 75 name, and I get that the proximity gives him some appeal. But to me, he doesn’t have the upside of the other high minors guys on this list—yes, even Henry Owens—and there are at least a dozen prospects I’d have ranked before him. Sorry if this phrase brings back bad memories for you, but it’s just not an enticing package.

Craig’s Retort:
Big words coming from the guy who ranked Sean Manaea opposite Chi Chi. Manaea might have a big strikeout rate, but he’s still up near 12 percent on his walk in addition to other mediocre numbers while still in High-A (at the same age as Gonzalez, no less). Gonzalez’s strikeout rate might not take you from six to midnight, but you should still give it the time of day. It’s solid enough that, when combined with his groundball percentage (51 percent at Frisco), there’s a lot to like. By no means is Gonzalez a future front of the rotation fantasy guy, but I know for a fact we both like Martin Perez, and I’m not sure why Gonzalez would be any different. Gonzalez is two steps from the major leagues with a disaster of a rotation in front of him, so opportunity should abound. At the back end of the top 50, I don’t mind sacrificing some sex appeal for a little security. I’m sorry if that rung true for you. I don’t feel good about it.

Point of Mutual Agreement:

Ben: Dom Smith did not factor in here.
Craig: Nor did Dan Vogelbach. Rough day for all the “Big Sexy”

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cdgoldstein
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here