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May 6, 2014
Eyewitness Accounts
Eyewitness Accounts for May 6, 2014
by Jason Parks and BP Prospect Staff
Link to series relaunch introduction
Josh Hader
Born: 04/07/1994 (Age: 20) |
Bats: Left |
Throws: Left |
Height: 6' 3" |
Weight: 160 |
Low three-quarters slot; works from the extreme third-base side of the rubber; long limbs; long arm action; pause at the start of the windup; hides the ball incredibly well from start to finish; lot of moving parts in the delivery; struggles to repeat mechanics; loses release point toward end of outings; controls the running game with two different types of pick-off moves; light and lanky body type with room to add weight. |
Ron Shah |
05/02/2014 |
Lancaster Jethawks (High-A, Astros) |
04/22/14; 04/26/14 |
55/High |
No. 4 Starter |
2017 |
No |
Fastball |
55 |
60 |
89-92 |
93 |
Four-seam fastball with late arm-side run; keeps it down; pounds it inside to same- and opposite-sided hitters; sits 91-92 (T93) in early innings before losing velocity in fourth and fifth frames; ball gets on hitters quickly regardless of velocity; added strength and improved conditioning should allow for consistent plus fastball velocity. |
Curveball |
45 |
55 |
77 |
79 |
Inconsistent offering that flashes above-average potential at 76-77 mph due to tight spin with sudden, late vertical break; slurve at higher velocities; loose spin at lower ranges; fights his arm slot at times. Pitcher can get the pitch over for a quality called strike when working backward or freeze same-sided hitters on the inside corners for a called strike three. |
Changeup |
45 |
55 |
83-84 |
85 |
Similarly to the curveball, the changeup flashes above-average potential. When he turns the wrist over, the offering comes in with deception and horizontal action. Improving consistency with arm action; plays well off of the fastball right now, but does get firm; needs to loosen up some for an increased velocity separation. |
Hader is an interesting prospect in the sense that some his strengths may also be his weaknesses. He does not possess an overpowering pitch, but there is plenty of deception in his delivery, allowing each of his offerings to play up. Hitters are simply never comfortable from the moment they step in the box. In fact, I saw one hitter swing and miss at a pitch that hit him square on for strike three.
However, all the moving parts within his mechanics make it hard for him to repeat his arm slot for five innings. Finding a consistency and being able to repeat in the long term will be the key.
I believe there is enough going on here to warrant a no. 4 starter ceiling for the recently turned 20-year-old. Hader is undoubtedly a long-term project, as noted by the 2017 ETA, but the wait could be worth it once he is a complete product. In the meantime, I would like to see him work on adding a slider to his repertoire as a fourth pitch. Perhaps more importantly, he will need to continue to build arm strength while improving his strength and conditioning.
|
Lucas Sims
Born: 05/10/1994 (Age: 19) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 2" |
Weight: 195 |
Nice frame; strong legs; muscular top; mild room for growth; mechanics are very clean; stays compact and repeats his delivery; arm action is smooth; solid arm speed; big leg kick; good extension; solid plane; quick on the mound; quick to home plate; delivery times in 1.36-1.46 range. |
Tucker Blair |
04/18/2014 |
Lynchburg Hillcats (High-A, Braves) |
4/14/2014 |
60/Medium |
No. 3 Starter |
2016 |
No |
FB |
50 |
60 |
90-93 |
94 |
Good extension and drive; terrific plane; fastball shows late life with mild arm-side run; Plays up due to tick stutter in delivery from high leg kick; commanded the pitch well most of the night; command becomes loose when overthrows; worked it quick and pounded all corners of the plate; not afraid to attack hitters inside; room for growth into frame could provide potential uptick in velocity; already sits comfortably at 90-93 |
CB |
60 |
60 |
74-78 |
78 |
Plus pitch; 12-to-6 break; great depth; tight spin; two-plane break; some struggles with release point but still effective; hitters struggled to pick up spin out of hand; strikeout pitch; true weapon; ability and braveness to throw in any count; ability to back-door and also wrap around hitters. |
CH |
45 |
60 |
81-84 |
86 |
Shows some fade; decent feel; arm-side run; really drops off the table at times; inconsistent currently; velocity fluctuates; becomes firm at higher velocity; ability to replicate FB arm speed; command is loose; fringe-average currently; ability to throw against LHH and RHH; refinement will come from more repetition; clearly working on this pitch in games; will occasionally flash plus. |
Turns 20 shortly, but pitches like he is a 24-year-old; pitchability through the roof. I absolutely loved how he attacked hitters the entire night with a bulldog mentality. Sims was determined and pissed off on the mound, but in a controlled manner. He was in charge of the game the entire night. With three pitches that could be plus, Sims is one of those starters every team dreams of. The change lags behind the plus CB and the very underrated FB, but the pitch flashes plus and gradually improved as the game went along. Sims is advanced for his age and the only thing holding him back could be his need to build stamina and his general inexperience in professional baseball.
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Aaron Sanchez
Born: 07/01/1992 (Age: 21) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 4" |
Weight: 200 |
Three-quarters arm slot; loose, efficient delivery; doesn’t strain to create velocity; fast arm; soft landing; tends to stay high during finish of delivery; inconsistent throwing downhill; quick out of the stretch; short stride–not much lower body; 1.32-1.43 out of stretch; kept focus with men on base; held velocity deep into outing; doesn’t wear himself out. |
Chris Mellen |
05/03/2014 |
New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Double-A, Blue Jays) |
04/28/2014 |
65/Moderate |
No. 2/3 starter |
2015 |
No |
FB |
60 |
65 |
91-95 |
96 |
Command: average. Movement: hard arm-side run, with some sinking action; displays movement throughout velocity band.
Notes: Pitch explodes out of hand; very difficult to square up in lower tier of the zone; downright nasty when spotted below top of the thighs and finishing delivery; not as effective in upper tier; throws to arm side better than glove side; tended to overthrow when in the stretch; needs work consistently spotting pitch and staying out of middle of the plate; pitch can have a mind of its own. |
CB |
65 |
70 |
79-83 |
83 |
Command: plus. Movement: deep overhand break with power and teeth.
Notes: Capable of getting both swing-and-misses and freezes; easy present plus-to-better offering; will change shape when situation calls for it; highly confident in pitch–will throw at any point in the count; throws to both sides of the plate; will roll from time to time; throws from same angle as fastball; legit out pitch. |
CH |
45 |
50 |
86-89 |
89 |
Command: Below average. Movement: arm-side fade; can also bottom out.
Notes: Will slow arm down and telegraph; inconsistent turning pitch over; floats when fading; better look and action when thrown glove-side; more of a contact inducing pitch due to firmness and lack of action; got better as outing progressed; currently lags behind fastball and curveball. |
Sanchez’s fastball has the velocity and movement to dominate outings when consistently spotted down in the zone. The combination of run and heavy action make it a very difficult offering to square up in the lower tier of the zone. I liked the overall look of the pitch, and feel it’s a fastball that can continue to play at the highest level. The pitcher is inconsistent finishing his delivery, especially out of the stretch in this outing, and it caused the heater to stay up. While this particular lineup didn’t do much damage, it’s an area where the pitch tends to be easier to square and better hitters are going to be able to handle it.
I see Sanchez always having to work and fight to reel his fastball in. First, the right-hander isn’t that great at throwing downhill. He tends to stay more upright in his delivery, which leads to having trouble staying above the fastball. This showed inning-to-inning and at times batter-to-batter. Also, the natural movement of the pitch actually gives him less margin of error. Sanchez needs to be more precise and consistently account for the movement when trying to spot it. Overall, I see it more likely that the command hovers around average or so.
In this outing the righty didn’t throw a secondary offering until the fourth inning, but the curveball immediately showed as a premium offering. The depth and shape of the pitch are excellent, with Sanchez displaying strong feel for it. I see the potential to miss a lot of bats and neutralize hitters with the curve, along with it to be considered one of the better ones in the league. His ability to consistently throw it for strikes in different shapes is impressive. The changeup looked a lot better when thrown to the glove side. The action was deeper. This pitch will be a third offering in Sanchez’s repertoire, but can be viable if strategically worked into sequences.
This pitcher has high-end stuff, and is capable of putting dominant stretches together, especially if he is working down in the zone with his fastball. I see Sanchez likely to battle inconsistencies due to the aforementioned things above, but having the potential to impact a team as an above-average player over the long haul of a career. My gut says the upside is a third starter, with the ability to have a career year or two above that.
|
Jorge Alfaro
Born: 06/11/1993 (Age: 20) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 2" |
Weight: 185 |
Primary Position: C |
Secondary Position: 1B |
Man-strength; accurate height; weight appears closer to 220; chiseled; highly athletic; body projects well. |
Jason Parks |
05/01/2014 |
Spring Training 2014 |
Myrtle Beach Pelicans (High-A, Rangers) |
2015 |
High |
70 |
60; first-division player |
No |
Rare five-tool talent at the position; arm strength is elite and utility has a chance to get there; raw power is plus-plus and should play at highest level; hit tool and approach aren't on the same level as other attributes; torque-heavy swing is hard to make quick pitch adjustments with and can be fooled by sequence and off-speed; hit tool could play to solid-average if everything clicks; won't be contact heavy hitter but should be able to hit for 25 HRs from a premium defensive spot; tool-based ceiling suggests franchise player potential; makeup and work ethic to fail and adjust.
|
Brandon Nimmo
Born: 03/27/1993 (Age: 21) |
Bats: Left |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 3" |
Weight: 205 |
Primary Position: CF |
Secondary Position: RF |
Tall frame, strong and well-developed for a 21-year-old, but with broad shoulders that still allow for some room to fill out. |
Jeff Moore |
05/03/2014 |
4/5/14, 4/9/14, 4/24/14 |
St. Lucie Mets (High-A, Mets) |
2016 |
Moderate |
60 |
50; major-league regular |
No |
Nimmo is still figuring out what kind of player he is going to be. He's built like a power hitter but approaches his at-bats like a table-setter, and his game fits that mold. While none of his traditional tools stand out, he does have one premium ability—plate discipline. He refuses to expand the strike zone, even when he has an easy run-producing opportunity. He can be an above-average hitter, but the hit tool will play up because of the plate discipline. He could be a plus on-base player. His defensive profile is still a question, but if he gets on base and provides plus defense in an outfield corner, he could start on a first-division team.
|
Bubba Starling
Born: 08/03/1992 (Age: 21) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 4" |
Weight: 180 |
Primary Position: CF |
Secondary Position: RF |
Looks the part; excellent size/strength; fast-twitch athlete; healthy |
Jason Parks |
05/03/2014 |
Spring Training 2014 |
Wilmington Blue Rocks (High-A, Royals) |
2017 |
High |
55 |
40; 5th outfielder |
No |
Athleticism and loud raw tools but well below-average hit tool will spoil the party; terminal pitch recognition skills; will struggle with contact and could fail to eclipse Mendoza line; raw power exists because of bat speed and strength, but unlikely to play to potential because of aforementioned hit tool/recognition issues; plus athlete with major league quality defensive profile in center; speed is weapon; arm is weapon; overall profile is Drew Stubbs-lite.
|
Tim Anderson
Born: 06/23/1993 (Age: 20) |
Bats: Right |
Throws: Right |
Height: 6' 1" |
Weight: 180 |
Primary Position: SS |
Secondary Position: 2B |
Shorter than listed 6’1”; very athletic build; filled out well in lower half presently with more room for growth; plus-plus athlete; just started playing baseball Junior Year of HS; super raw. |
CJ Wittmann |
05/04/2014 |
4/11-14/14 |
Winston-Salem White Sox (High-A, White Sox) |
2016 |
Extreme |
65 |
50; major-league regular |
No |
There’s extreme, extreme risk here because Anderson is a different kind of raw. He has probably played in a lesser amount of games than everyone he’s playing against. He needs reps and reps and reps. He has electric hands that could let him stay in the infield but I don’t love his range at SS and his arm lacked the strength to make the throw in the hole. At the plate, this is probably the first time Anderson has seen consistent breaking balls. He recognizes spin early and tracks the ball but hasn’t shown the ability to barrel it. Presently, he still loves to pull the ball and is learning the use the right side. He makes consistent hard contact when balls are put into play though. I am confident he can make the necessary adjustments to adjust to spin and barrel it. He’s not off balance when he’s swinging; Anderson just doesn’t look use to them yet. He’s super raw and a long way away but if he puts it all together, he has an electric profile.
|
Anthony Kemp
Born: 10/31/1991 (Age: 22) |
Bats: Left |
Throws: Right |
Height: 5' 6" |
Weight: 165 |
Primary Position: 2B |
Secondary Position: CF |
Small player; athletic body; strong for his size; 5-6/165 might be a little heavy; probably more around 155; not much projection left. |
Chris Rodriguez |
05/04/2014 |
4/8, 4/10, 4/12, 4/17, 4/18, 4/22, 4/24 |
Lancaster Jethawks (High-A, Astros) |
2016 |
Moderate |
50 |
45; valuable utility player |
No |
Kemp has been the most consistent hitter on the loaded Lancaster roster, spraying line drives all around the diamond. The approach is the best part of his game for me, as he consistently gets himself into hitter's counts and doesn't mind a walk. Pair this with a good defensive profile at second base and the ability to play other positions (left and center), a utility profile is the most realistic role for me. Player comparison: Skip Schumaker.
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Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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<< Previous Article
Baseball Therapy: Is O... (05/06)
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Eyewitness Accounts: S... (09/13)
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Eyewitness Accounts: M... (05/07)
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Prospects Will Break Y... (05/06)
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These are great. Clear and informative.