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March 28, 2014 Raising AcesOut on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Predictions
Along with the rest of the BP staff, I’ve submitted my pre-season predictions for division standings and end-of-season award winners. I tend to stay in the neighborhood of likely outcomes for these picks, resulting in easy answers such as “Mike Trout for AL MVP” or “Tigers win the AL Central,” but I’m more intrigued by the long-shot stories that emerge once the season starts.
With those surprises in mind, I’m going out on a limb to pick the players whose paths will diverge from expectations in the upcoming season. Since this is Raising Aces, we'll focus on scenarios involving big-league pitchers, starting with more plausible predictions before getting a bit bolder.
Low-Hanging Fruit
David Price will pitch the whole season with the Rays, culminating in another American League Cy Young Award
Stephen Strasburg will pitch 200 innings and notch 200 strikeouts for the first time
On the Left: 2010 | On the Right: 2013
Tony Cingrani’s deception won’t last
One Giant Leap for a Man
Matt Moore posts the peripheral stats to support last season's traditional metrics
One can point to Moore’s unconventional setup on the third-base side of the rubber and suggest that he needs to shift his starting location, especially considering his tendency to miss inside to right-handed batters. But due to his closed stride, the technique is necessary to get him lined up with the plate at release point, and the starting position allows him to finish with the drag-foot near the imaginary centerline that runs from rubber to home plate.
I’d recommend that Moore slightly open his starting angle on the rubber, turning his hips a tick toward the right-hand batter's box, and combine that adjusted angle with a slight lateral move toward the center of the rubber. The combined technique would allow him to line up the gears of rotation while minimizing the closed stride-angle, allowing Moore to get square to his target and take a more efficient path to the plate, all while preserving his mechanical signature. This could help him improve both his fastball command and his ability to bury off-speed and breaking stuff directly under the zone instead of continuing to over-rotate those pitches to the glove side.
Nathan Eovaldi ups his strikeout-to-walk ratio by 50 percent
Strikeouts are only half the equation, but Eovaldi also has the mechanical baselines to slash his walk rate; he received a B grade for his delivery in the 2014 Starting Pitcher Guide, with plus marks in three of the six subjects on his mechanics report card. Somewhat shockingly, his highest scores were in the stability department, including 60 balance and 70 posture (his power marks each earned a 55). The only weak link in his chain was a 45 grade for consistency, but his strong foundation and excellent mechanical underpinnings portend significant improvement. The icing on the cake is Eovaldi's ability to alter his arm angle without sacrificing posture, which could add to the confusion for opposing batters this season.
Don't Go Chasing Waterfalls
Brian Wilson's beard will not be feared
Alex Wood will spin out of control
Breaking Bad is Good
Ian Kennedy has a performance spike in San Diego
Tyler Skaggs re-emerges to bolster the club that drafted him
2012
The southpaw made some modest improvements last season, including slight adjustments to his balance and posture that allowed him to up the release-distance grade to a 30 in this year's SP Guide. But the overall score, which was based on his 2013 mechanics, still registered as a D+ for the second straight year. He was traded back to the Angels in the offseason, and his mechanical tweaks this spring have been astonishingly impressive.
Spring 2014
The most notable change is the influx of power in Skaggs' delivery, beginning with plus momentum that chases a bold initial move with an impressive burst of speed as he transitions out of maximum leg lift. His torque has also improved dramatically; the hip-whip strategy of 2012 has been replaced by an earlier trigger of hip rotation combined with a stronger delay of trunk rotation, multiplying the degrees of separation that he generates between hips and shoulders. The result: a fastball that averaged 90.2 mph in the show last season has escalated to 93.6 mph this spring.
Skaggs’ torque is aided by his improved momentum thanks to a timing pattern that allows him to line up the gears of rotation, and it should be easier for him to repeat that motion with practice and time. He still has some spine-tilt, but the lean is not nearly as worrisome as it was two years prior. Finally, Skaggs is releasing pitches much later in the rotational sequence, allowing him to achieve a deeper release point and giving batters less of a chance to identify the pitch out of his hand, even on the breaking ball.
There are still improvements to be made, and the small-sample caveats of spring training apply, but Skaggs has transformed himself from a pitcher I feared would never reach ceiling into one who could soon make an impact in the majors. The Angels could certainly use the help, and the development team deserves credit for helping Skaggs regain his mojo. Most of all, Skaggs deserves credit for listening to his coaches and showing both the willingness and the aptitude to make major adjustments. Cases like this exemplify the fact that player evaluation at any point in time is nothing more than a snapshot of the development process.
Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
10 comments have been left for this article.
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Thanks for the analysis as always. I sure hope you're right, since it's in line with a lot of the transactions I've made (like trading for Kennedy) and didn't make (like passing on a trade for Cingrani) in my dynasty league.