March 28, 2014

Fantasy Auction Values

Fifth Edition

by Mike Gianella

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Last weekend, Tout Wars held their AL, NL, and mixed-league auctions. This was the final series of expert league auctions this year, and offered yet another set of price points to contemplate before we all head off to our own home league auctions this coming weekend. Listed below are the significant adjustments I made based on the prices in the Tout Wars auctions in the AL and NL-only formats.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

• Adjustments due to LABR/Tout prices
• Edwin Encarnacion $31 (previous bid $29, LABR $34, Tout $33)
• Jason Kipnis $31 (previous bid $28, LABR $33, Tout $33)
• Fernando Rodney $14 (previous bid $16, LABR $12, Tout $12)
• Ubaldo Jimenez $9 (previous bid $11, LABR $7, Tout $6)
• Dan Straily $11 (previous bid $9, LABR $13, Tout $14)

Keep in mind that the goal isn’t simply to mirror LABR/Tout prices. We all have our own preferences, and if all I was doing with this exercise were copying expert league prices it wouldn’t be very useful. However, Encarnacion, Kipnis, and Rodney are all examples of players who I was off base on compared to the expert market. Rodney should still be an easy get at $14, and Encarnacion and Kipnis are still likely to go for well over $30 (and past my new recommended bid limit).

Other Adjustments

Yu Darvish $26 (previous bid $29)
I’m not alarmed by Darvish’s neck injury, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he misses 2-3 starts.

Jose Reyes $25 (previous bid $27)
The hamstring isn’t something I’m panicking about, but the new bid expresses an appropriate amount of concern.

Jose Abreu $25 (previous bid $21)
It isn’t just Steve Gardner of USA Today/Sports Weekly who is excited about Abreu. Nearly everyone I talked to during Tout Wars weekend is really enthused by Abreu’s potential. His power potential should not be underestimated.

Joakim Soria $12 (previous bid $9)
Neftali Feliz $2 (previous bid $6)
Maybe Feliz rebounds in the minors and winds up closing this summer, but I’m not going to pay for that. Soria is the man in the ninth for Texas right now, and should be paid accordingly.

Jurickson Profar $7 (previous bid $15)
In keeper leagues, adjust Profar’s price higher. In redraft leagues, don’t overpay for a guy who is likely to miss half of 2014.

Gordon Beckham $4 (previous bid $8)
Marcus Semien $6 (previous bid $1)
Beckham will start the season on the DL, and I’m not convinced that Semien will simply hand the job back when Beckham is ready.

Abraham Almonte $9 (previous bid $3)
Michael Saunders $4 (previous bid $7)
Almonte has won an outfield job outright, and Saunders will be part of a messy right-field platoon/job share in Seattle.

Alberto Callaspo $4 (previous bid $7)
The Athletics are going platoon heavy this year, and Callaspo will be on the wrong side of the second-base platoon with Eric Sogard. Given that Callaspo wasn’t a fantasy stud to begin with, I only want him on a discount.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Adjustments due to LABR/Tout prices

• Pablo Sandoval $19 (previous bid $17, LABR $23, Tout $21)
• Jim Henderson $13 (previous bid $16, LABR $10, Tout $11)
• Andre Ethier $10 (previous bid $8. LABR $15, Tout $12)
• Cody Ross $5 (previous bid $7, LABR $3, Tout $3)
• Cody Asche $9 (previous bid $6, LABR $12, Tout $11)

Other Adjustments

Jake Marisnick $1 (previous bid $6)
Marcell Ozuna $10 (previous bid $6)
Brian Bogusevic $1 (previous bid $5)
These bids are geared toward redraft leagues, as Ozuna has won the job and probably won’t just give it up. In keeper leagues, Marisnick is going to need a few more dollars.

Mike Olt $9 (previous bid $6)
Luis Valbuena $1 (previous bid $4)
Olt has won the Cubs third-base job. Kris Bryant might supplant him at some point, but for now I’d bid on Olt with confidence. Valbuena loses some bid value as a result.

Josh Johnson $7 (previous bid $9)
Robbie Erlin $3 (previous bid $1)
Johnson loses a little value due to his preseason injury. Throw a little extra money Erlin’s way, although Matthew Wisler might be the guy if Johnson’s injury turns out to be serious.

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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