March 26, 2014

My Model Portfolio

High Risk, High Reward

by Mauricio Rubio

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On Friday, Mike Gianella released his latest mixed league Bid Limits, which spurred an idea from Bret Sayre called Model Portfolios, wherein the fantasy staff (and anyone else on the BP roster who wants to participate) will create their own team within the confines of a standard 23-man, $260 budget. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UTx2, and Px9 along with the following standards issued by Sayre:

• We are using the mixed-league values.
• You can use any player not on Mike's sheet for $1.
• The scoring will be 5x5 roto, so we're not just picking the players who will return the most value.
• Eligibility is kept to the positions applicable right now. No potential in-season eligibility is to be considered.

We will track these teams throughout the season to see how everyone fared. Below is Mauricio's offering, along with an explanation of how he assembled his crew.

Having a solid value system in place with zero chance of inflation is a great way to build an auction-based team. The selections I’ve made here are a mix of value buys and stat fillers. I don’t think guys like Bryce Harper will return much more than $2 of value this season, especially with the injury risk he presents, but, well, let’s just go ahead and dive into my team.

• I think Jason Castro has a really good chance of returning $5-plus worth of value this season. $12 seems like great value, and it helps free me up at other positions. Catchers are always risky buys, but I didn’t want to play a $1 guy here.
• I’m very high on Eric Hosmer this year as well, and I think there’s an outside chance he’s a $30 player in 2014.
• I’m buying into the Starlin Castro rebound, and I went with the solid, albeit unspectacular, Martin Prado at third. I think both Castro and Prado return at least $5 of value this year.

• Bryce Harper is a risk buy at $33 given his youth and the reckless manner in which he plays.
• Stanton also isn’t a sure bet to play all year, but I think the upside is there with both players, and while the returns may be smaller for those guys, I think they give me the power I need to compete in any league.
• Will Venable functions as a do-everything guy who can give me some power and speed at the expense of average.
• I’m expecting a solid power/speed season out of Cespedes this year, and I think Shane Victorino gives me a bump in AVG and SB.

• Lind is filler in a way, but I think he can be a valuable asset considering his power potential.
• I like Anthony Redon’s AVG potential this year, and I think he can provide some power as well.
• Pagan is another speed player, and Moss is there to really push my HR totals should guys like Harper and Stanton miss time.

• I think there’s a good chance Gerrit Cole turns in a $25 season. Its tall timber but I think there’s a ton of value there for $14.
• Health is perhaps a theme for my team, as I don’t know if Anibal Sanchez has 200 innings in him. James Shields is there for support.
• I like Burnett a lot at $2, I think Ivan Nova is a steal at $1, and, well, Yordano at $1 is tremendous value.
• Rosenthal, Reed, and Veras all have solid saves potential,.I think Veras might be a steal at $5, and I have big hopes for Reed at $9.

Full team:

Mauricio Rubio is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MRubio52
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