Raising Aces: Over the... (03/07)
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March 7, 2014 Painting the BlackSpring Flings
With the first week of the exhibition season in the books, teams now have less than a month before their Opening Day rosters are due. Most clubs have an open spot or two up for grabs, typically in the bullpen or off the bench, but a few are staging auditions of greater importance this spring. Here are 10 intriguing positional battles along with a prediction of who we believe ought to win the jobs.
Arizona Diamondbacks, Shortstop Who should win? Owings. Gregorius' second-half fade obscures his status as a decent starting option. Despite the offensive struggles, he remained a solid defender who performed fairly against right-handed pitching. Still, Owings profiles as the better hitter—even if PECOTA suggests otherwise—and possesses enough defensive ability to avoid giving the advantage back in the field. Kevin Towers has made overtures about a potential shortstop-for-catcher trade this spring, so whoever finishes second could be on his way out of town.
Baltimore Orioles, Second Base Who should win? Weeks. Schoop needs additional time on the farm, leaving Weeks to scrap with Flaherty for the spot. A former Rule 5 pick, Flaherty served as Baltimore's primary second baseman last season during Roberts' absence. His expansive defensive history and so-so offensive game suggests he fits on a roster best as a super-utility type. Weeks is a slightly better hitter, according to PECOTA, and could benefit from a fresh slate following two disappointing seasons in Oakland. Dan Duquette had Flaherty on the roster when he traded for Weeks, which could hint at how he ranks the players.
Chicago Cubs, Third Base Who should win? Olt. The onetime top prospect had a forgettable 2013 thanks to concussion- and vision-related woes. Those issues are reportedly behind Olt, providing hope that the 25-year-old can regain his lost luster. When right, the Connecticut native provides defense, power, and strikeouts in spades. He won't develop into an all-star-caliber player, but he could become a trade chip in the near future, making it important for the Cubs to find out what they have. For now, Olt just needs to be an upgrade over Valbuena—author of a respectable 2013, albeit one more desirable from a bench player.
Chicago White Sox, Left Field Who should win? De Aza. Viciedo is younger and has the highest offensive ceiling, yet he is the inferior player based on expected production. The 30-year-old De Aza is a better fielder and baserunner, and has outperformed Viciedo at the plate in each of his first two seasons with Chicago—PECOTA anticipates the streak will increase to three, albeit narrowly. Expect Hahn to field plenty of calls concerning De Aza heading into the season, with a fair chance he parts with his ex-leadoff hitter.
Houston Astros, Closer Who should win? Qualls. Though the resurgent Qualls has not saved a game since June 2010, he should get the nod to begin the year thanks to refined mechanics and the best individual season of the trio. Fields assumed the ninth for the Astros late last season following the Jose Veras trade, and at times looked the part due to his fastball-curveball combination. His wildness and extreme fly-ball tendencies limit his reliability, however, and he profiles better as a set-up man. Albers is nearly the inverse: batters seldom lift his pitches, but he doesn't miss enough bats to close.
Miami Marlins, Fourth and Fifth Starters Who should win? Turner and Koehler. Process of elimination points to Turner and Koehler reprising their roles as back-end starters. Hand and Flynn have low ceilings and failed to perform well during past stays in the majors, while Heaney has just six starts above Double-A under his belt. Koehler is boring and Turner is frustrating, but at the moment they represent the best choices for the Marlins.
New York Mets, First Base Who should win? Duda. Sandy Alderson seems to prefer Duda, anonymous scouts seem to prefer Duda, yet PECOTA prefers Davis. The margin is slim—four points of True Average—but there are other valid reasons to prefer Ike, such as his better glove and younger birth year. Perhaps a team in need of an upgrade at first base—ahem, Pittsburgh—decides to pull the trigger and end the competition before the Mets have weighed in.
Pittsburgh Pirates, First Base Who should win? Sanchez and Lambo. Allowing Sanchez to play everyday would go against what Pittsburgh has done in the past. Instead, the Pirates seem likely to pick the best of the three left-handed choices. Both Lambo and McGuiness are on the 40-man roster already, giving them a leg up on the journeyman Ishikawa. PECOTA considers the pair equal, but Lambo's power potential and ability to play the corner outfield could serve as the x-factors.
Seattle Mariners, Shortstop Who should win? Miller. Sometimes these decisions come down to the best fit. The Mariners need a shortstop, and last season Miller showed he can play tolerable defense there. Franklin can't (due in part to a fringe arm), which leaves him as the odd-man out. Even if the two were considered offensive equals—and PECOTA favors Miller by a fair margin—the defensive edge gives Miller the nod.
Tampa Bay Rays, Fifth Starter Who should win? Bedard. Neither Colome nor Karns is a serious candidate, leaving Bedard, Odorizzi, and Ramos as the remaining combatants. The Rays never rush young arms to satisfy short-term needs, so while Odorizzi is the most exciting of the trio, he could be headed to Durham to work on his command. Ramos is a versatile southpaw, but he might fit best in the bullpen. That leaves Bedard; he's not good, or particularly interesting, yet he can give Joe Maddon five innings each time out until Hellickson returns.
R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @r_j_anderson
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Fantasy Freestyle: Projecting the Top 15
In the cases of De Aza/Viciedo and Owings/Gregorius, I continue to say that a platoon is the best solution. Too many teams platoon as a last resort, the way the Tigers did in left field, leaving one guy exposed if the other gets hurt. Each of the pairings we're talking about contain two guys who can at least handle everyday duty, so the injury risk is mitigated. Yet none of the four are without either serious question marks (R.J., you and I have talked about the sketchy profile on Owings) or obvious deficiencies (Gregorius's stick versus LHP, De Aza's, too, Viciedo's defense).
To me, both situations scream for a proactive, extremely productive platoon. Owings can slide to second base if Aaron Hill gets hurt. The presence of both Martin Prado and Eric Chavez (with Trumbo in an emergency, I guess) means neither guy should ever have to slide to third, where they would, admittedly, be stretched. De Aza can play center or right as needed, too. Heck, Viciedo should be able to play right, since his arm is his best defensive tool anyway.
Teams set the bar too low for themselves, and tag players as either everyday guys or bench guys too quickly. That leads to giving away useful players, then finding insufficient depth. It's self-defeating. These are platoon options that don't really even cost a roster spot, the way the Pirates' would, for instance, because of the versatility of the players involved. I hope the executives in charge of those decisions can see that.