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March 4, 2014 Draft Ten PackThe Prep Edition
Prep Spotlight: Nick Gordon (SS/RHP, Olympia (Orlando, FL))
After an uneven first few games, Gordon has exploded offensively over the past two weeks. His season line now sits at .435/.519/.870, which includes 10 hits over 23 at-bats and more than half of those hits going for extra bases (two home runs, two doubles, and a triple). The FSU commit has hung a noteworthy amount of muscle on his frame over the winter months, addressing one of the few concerns surrounding his profile: a lack of physicality. With a chance to play a good defensive shortstop, with legit plus-or-better arm strength and solid lower-half agility, Gordon could be setting himself up for top 10 selection if he continues this torrid pace at the plate throughout the next couple of months. In a draft heavy on college arms and power prep arms, it’s tough to ask for a prep position player to work his way that high on a draft board. Gordon has the chance to do it, with the upside of a plus-or-better stick, double-digit home run pop and a plus defensive profile. –Nick J. Faleris
More Prep Notes Michael Kopech (RHP, Mt. Pleasant (Mt. Pleasant, TX)) A bit of an enigma on the summer circuit, Kopech flashed dominant stuff at times (such as in the above video) while struggling to throw strikes and maintain his mechanics throughout his outings. Based on arsenal, projection, and upside, he was one of the most interesting right-handed starters in the class entering the 2014 season, and his first few starts have him looking to make an early play for first-round selection. In his first regular season start, Kopech threw four perfect innings, striking out nine in the process and seeing his fastball sit comfortably in the low 90s and kissing the mids. At its best, the curve is a hard mid- to upper-70s power breaker with plus depth, and he’ll mix in a distinct slider and a change, to boot. –Nick J. Faleris
Sean Reid-Foley (RHP, Sandalwood (Jacksonville, FL) Reid-Foley continues to chew through the competition down in the Sunshine State, and could be putting himself in the discussion for top prep arm in the class. In his most recent start, the Florida State commit took the hill against Mandarin and proceeded to carve his way through six shutout innings, allowing just one hit and one hit-by-pitch while recording 16 of his 18 outs via strikeouts. High school stats are not overly important when it comes to scouting the draft, but one can’t help but be impressed by the line that Reid-Foley has put together over his first three league starts: 16 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 37 SO, 3 HBP. The stuff remains consistent, with a low- to mid-90s heater leading the way and three quality secondaries (slider, curve, change) in tow. –Nick J. Faleris
Grant Holmes (RHP, Conway (Conway, SC)) Holmes established himself early as one of the top power arms in the class, routinely sitting in the low- to mid-90s through the summer/fall scouting circuit and flashing a low-80s power slider that could also grade as a plus or better offering, long term. Early reports this spring have Holmes’ velo climbing even higher, touching 98 mph in a short-stint scrimmage. It’s a strong solid build with a high-effort delivery that has some scouts pointing the Florida commit toward a future closer role. Over multi-inning starts, however, Holmes has shown an ability to turn over lineups and maintain his secondaries, even if the velocity sits closer to 90-93 than it does 94-96. He is a potential first-round arm that with a strong spring could carve out a top 10 spot in a pitching-heavy draft. –Nick J. Faleris
Luke Bonfield (OF, IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL)) Bonfield is a premium high school bat from New Jersey who transferred to top program IMG Academy to play his senior season. An Arkansas commit, Bonfield was ranked no. 3 in New Jersey and no. 59 overall by Perfect Game before the season. He has an advanced approach with the ability to barrel up balls and makes consistent hard contact. Bonfield possesses the potential for his line drives to carry with added bat speed and size, which his frame should hold. He has a big load, similar to that of Hanley Ramirez, but does an excellent job of getting it down early and keeping his weight back. Can get a bit rotational at times but showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields, hitting an opposite-field HR in one of the games I saw him play. Right now, he’s an average runner, or maybe a tick above average, which will keep him in the corner OF spots with an average arm. –Steffan Segui
Taylor Lane (3B/SS, IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL)) Similar to Bonfield, Lane transferred into IMG Academy this season from out of state. He will stay in state for college and attend Florida if he doesn’t get signed away to pro ball first. Ranked no. 195 by Perfect Game, Lane comes from Great Bridge HS in Chesapeake, VA, same school that produced the Upton brothers. His upright setup and rotational mechanics somewhat resemble those of Justin. Lane is currently 6-foot-2 with a medium build and looks as if he could fill out substantially. Has a solid idea at the plate but a late start and small hand hitch give him the tendency to swing through pitches. His quick hands and good bat speed could produce above-average power when he fills out. He is a solid-average runner and has plenty of arm and quickness that will allow him to stay on the left side of the infield. His eventual size and range however, will likely push him to third. –Steffan Segui
Dylan Cease (RHP, Milton (Milton, GA)) Cease showcased big velocity all summer, before tiring some in late August, and backed up the heater with a fringe-average curve that often flashed plus but lacked consistency in execution. The story remains the same thus far in 2014, with the Vandy commit popping in the 94-97 mph range early and often after a restful winter. With so much velocity at the prep ranks this year, it will be important for arms like Cease to show consistent secondaries and an ability to maintain into the middle innings in order to provide some separation from the pack come draft day. Cease is off to a good start and will look to carry that momentum through the spring. –Nick J. Faleris
Touki Toussaint (RHP, Coral Springs (Coral Springs, FL)) Perhaps the highest upside prep arm in the class, Toussaint has the potential to boast a plus or better fastball, plus-plus curve, average changeup, and plus short slider/cutter if things break right. His biggest obstacle over the last nine months has been finding the ability to command his pitches on a regular basis, as it was not uncommon to see the big righty quickly dispatch of a couple batters before lapsing into bouts of wildness and extending his innings. Thus far the velocity has crept into the mid-90s this spring, which is consistent with what we’ve seen since last June. He remains a candidate to come off the board in the first round, but could slip if he is not able to show more consistency this spring than we’ve seen in recent viewings. –Nick J. Faleris
Tyler Kolek (RHP, Shepherd (Shepherd, TX)) Entering the spring, Kolek was guaranteed top-five-overall hype so long as he showed the same velocity he had on display during several stops on the summer scouting circuit. In limited action thus far, the TCU commit has done just that, hitting 99 mph and sitting comfortably in the 95-97 range. The secondaries continue to lag, but if he can find the handle on a slider that has shown some promise, he could be first prep name called come June. Heck, even without the developed secondaries he is certain to get early first round consideration off the velocity and workhorse build—he stands 6-foot-5, 250 with big firm hands and country strength throughout. High level decision-makers will be checking in throughout the spring, though the early velocity returns may mean those selecting later in the round are perusing goods that will never be available to them. –Nick J. Faleris Milton Ramos (SS, American Heritage (Plantation, FL)) As with Nick Gordon, evaluators in near unanimity view Ramos as a future shortstop, with questions about his future offensive projection centering on physicality. Ramos hasn’t seen the same visible increase in strength that Gordon has, but is nonetheless stinging the ball to start the 2014 campaign, which is helping alleviate concerns. Through six games the FAU commit is hitting .476/.560/1.000, with half of his 10 hits going for extra bases (two home runs, two triples, and a double). He has also showcased his plus speed and solid baserunning, stretching extras and going three of four on attempted steals. Insert your typical “early season, small sample size” conditionals here, but do so while noting Ramos is doing what he needs to in order to begin carving out an early-round spot for himself come June. –Nick J. Faleris
Nick J. Faleris is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @NickJFaleris
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Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Relief Pitchers
This is really useful, but it would be helpful for those of us who are less familiar with the players if you could put in something on their likely draft position as a matter of course.
Adding something like
Current Draft Stock: 3rd round
Potential: Top half of the second.
to each profile might be one way of doing this.
Generally speaking here the guys we are profiling are top 5 round talent with many like Reid-Fokey, Kolek, Touki and Holmes in the first round mix.
Steffan, am I wrong to think that the volatility of high-school players' stock makes that sort of labeling tricky, too? It seems to me that high-schoolers are developing and changing so much that there's almost no way to confidently forecase their draft position until a few weeks out from the event.
I think there is some truth to that. Perhaps more importantly, teams don't know exactly how they are lining these players up yet. So while I think it's fair to say Nick Gordon looks like a lock for the first round passed on his current profile, that could mean 7th overall or 27th overall depending on the rest of the spring and the wants of the particular teams drafting.
There is definitely a good amount of volatility but even more things like signability, makeup and injury concerns still need to be ironed out. Plus the season just started so we could still see velo spikes or drops by some guys or power uptick in a hitter we didnt expect. So while we could put something like 1st to 2nd round or 3-6 in general the guys were covering in this content area really are all top guys anyways so it would look sort of redundant.
I suppose the problem I have is that I can't necessarily work out from the scouting report whether someone is a likely first rounder or more likely to be a 3rd-5th guy. It seems that every pitcher has the potential to throw 95+ with interesting but inconsistent secondaries, and some command/control issues. I get that we're still a way off the draft, and that especially high school guys can develop markedly in that time, so it's hard to value players definitively at this stage. I'm aware of many of the guys that might be expected to go early in the first, but I'm finding it hard to broaden my knowledge much beyond that. All I seem to take away is that there are lots of people who have potential but are just in some sort of amorphous group that stretches from the back of the first round down to the level where you probably won't cover them. I'd be interested in any suggestions you have on how I can get a better feel for what's happening here.
Great question. This class is particularly flush with power arms, so it is a bit atypical in that sense. All of the arms mentioned in this article are 1st or second round guys right now. Bonfield and Lane are both early round candidates, but their stock is a little more up in the air. We have run the first three pieces of our positional preview series for the draft, so definitely check those out for a better sense of tiering for the HS catchers, middle infielders and corner infielders. I will be publishing the rest of that preview -- just got sidetracked by early scouting travels for the college season and some end-of-prospect-season stuff.
Finally, I will ALWAYS be available on twitter and in the comment section to give any thoughts on current stock of players, and where I think they might fit in. My one condition is you understand my projection is based on our player valuation with a little bit of industry thoughts sprinkled in, and at the end of the day teams value these players so differently that a fourth round talent for some could be popped in second round.
Thanks as always for reading!
Thanks for the replies. I fully understand that rankings can change radically between now and the draft for a load of reasons, and that it just takes one team to like a guy a lot for him to get popped earlier than most people think he should be. Also signability and other stuff too. I'll go and read the articles you suggested and pester you if I have any more questions.
Not to forget hideout guys.