March 3, 2014

LABR Recap

Part One: AL-Only Auction

by Mike Gianella

This past weekend, 24 of fantasy baseball’s sharpest minds gathered in Phoenix, Arizona, for the 21^st annual League of Alternative Baseball Reality fantasy baseball auctions. That’s known as LABR to you and me, and it’s exciting because LABR unofficially kicks off that exciting time when the season feels like it’s just around the corner. Today, I’ll cover the AL-only auction. Later this week, I will take a look at the action in the NL.

If you are interested in every pick from Mike Trout down to the last $1 player, the results can be found here. Dissecting every player purchased and every team’s roster is beyond the intended scope of this article. Rather, I’ll take a look at a few spending trends, both on a handful of individual players as well as on types of purchases the experts made on Saturday night.

So what happened?

Pitching will cost more this year
On February 18, CBS held their AL-only expert league auction. I noticed that for the first time in a few years, the experts in CBS spent more on the aggregate in pitching than they had in a while. I wondered if this trend would carry over to LABR.

Table 1: Hitting/Pitching Dollar Allocation 2013 vs. 2014

League	Year	Hitting %	Pitching %
CBS AL	2014	68.3%	31.7%
CBS AL	2013	70.8%	29.2%
LABR AL	2014	68.6%	31.4%
LABR AL	2013	71.0%	29.0%
Tout Wars AL	2013	70.7%	29.3%
CBS NL	2014	67.0%	33.0%
CBS NL	2013	68.4%	31.6%
LABR NL	2013	69.7%	30.3%
Tout Wars NL	2013	69.5%	30.5%

Despite LABR having a completely different pool of AL experts, the trend held. Expert owners are spending more on pitching this year than they did last year, which leads me to believe that regular Joes and Janes in home leagues will follow.

In CBS, the spending spike on pitching came in the $8-18 range for pitchers. LABR was a little more conservative, with the spike coming between $7-14. Regardless of where or when the jump in prices came, the experts in LABR mirrored their counterparts in CBS and paid a premium for young pitching talent.

Table 2: Pitcher Pricing Comparison: AL CBS vs. AL LABR, 2014

Pitcher	CBS	LABR	My Bid	2013
Danny Salazar	18	19	13	$6
Alex Cobb	18	18	17	$18
Sonny Gray	15	17	13	$9
A.J. Griffin	15	15	11	$19
Chris Archer	10	14	12	$14
Corey Kluber	16	13	11	$12
Dan Straily	11	13	7	$11
Drew Smyly	12	12	7	$13

At first blush, you might look at the expert-league prices, look at what most of these pitchers earned last year, and think that I’m the one who is out of line. Only Salazar and Gray stand out as pitchers getting paid far more than what they have ever earned. Kluber and Straily’s prices are close to their 2013 earnings, while the rest of the group match or exceed what they were paid. So am I overreacting to this trend?

Perhaps. However, keep in mind that the market typically doesn’t pay even the best pitchers what they earned the year before.

Table 3: Top 10 AL-Only Starters in 2013

Pitcher	CBS	LABR	My Bid	2013
Max Scherzer	29	27	29	$35
Yu Darvish	32	28	29	$30
Hisashi Iwakuma	16	13	17	$30
Chris Sale	27	25	23	$26
Anibal Sanchez	19	21	19	$25
Felix Hernandez	26	27	22	$24
Bartolo Colon	NATIONAL LEAGUE			$23
James Shields	21	21	19	$20
Clay Buchholz	10	10	11	$20
Justin Masterson	12	13	13	$20

The discount on Iwakuma is understandable given his health. But for the rest of these pitchers, are you sure you want to let them go at these prices when the younger, far-less-proven crop of pitchers is going for so much more money? I get the concerns about Buchholz, but I’ll take him at $10 or Masterson at $13 over any pitcher in Table 2 at these prices any day of the week.

Another area in which LABR mirrored CBS was paying more for closers in 2014 than they did in 2013.

Table 4: AL Expert Closer Prices 2014

Pitcher	CBS	LABR	My Bid
Greg Holland	19	23	21
Joe Nathan	17	20	20
David Robertson	18	19	16
Koji Uehara	19	19	21
Glen Perkins	19	17	18
Grant Balfour	16	16	13
John Axford	14	14	14
Ernesto Frieri	16	14	13
Casey Janssen	16	14	15
Jim Johnson	18	14	13
Neftali Feliz	17	13	14
Fernando Rodney	17	12	16
Tommy Hunter	13	10	9
Nathan Jones	14	9	10
Josh Fields*	8	8	2
Total	241	222	215

^*highest priced Astros reliever in LABR

LABR didn’t push the stoppers quite as high as CBS did, but the fear of paying for a closer because of what happened in 2012 has disappeared. Holland, Nathan, Robertson, and Uehara all cost more than any closer did in LABR in 2013.

One thing the experts did on Saturday that I disagree with was open up their wallets (relatively speaking) for set-up men. Besides Fields—who went for more than presumed closer Jesse Crain—here are some additional reliever prices:

• Cody Allen $8
• Sergio Santos $8
• Danny Farquhar $6
• Chad Qualls $6
• Joakim Soria $6
• Jesse Crain $5
• Sean Doolittle $4
• Jake McGee $3
• Darren O’Day $3

From an earnings perspective, there is nothing wrong with these prices. In -only leagues, non-closers can earn well into double-digits, with 12 American League relievers turning the trick in 2013. However, most of these relievers can be had for free; nine of the 12 best non-closer relievers in the American League were not purchased on auction day in LABR. Chasing saves with your finite auction cash isn’t a good play either. Two of last year’s most successful setup stories—Koji Uehara and Danny Farquhar—didn’t even go for $1 in LABR. Joaquin Benoit at $5 was a good investment, but he was behind a shaky “closer” in Bruce Rondon at $7. If you are going to go this route, I prefer making a play on a reliever like Crain/Qualls in an unsettled bullpen.

Because of the push toward pitching, LABR spent $77 less across the board on hitters—or an average of $6.4 less per team. One area in which hitting spending didn’t drop was on the top hitters.

Table 5: 10 Most Expensive AL LABR Hitters 2014

Pitcher	CBS	LABR	My Bid
Mike Trout	43	45	43
Miguel Cabrera	43	42	42
Jacoby Ellsbury	34	35	31
Edwin Encarnacion	30	34	29
Robinson Cano	34	33	32
Prince Fielder	33	33	27
Adam Jones	34	33	30
Jason Kipnis	26	33	27
Chris Davis	32	31	32
Evan Longoria	29	30	27

Fear of Mike Trout regressing and turning into a pumpkin has evaporated, at least among the experts. The experts in LABR haven’t paid $45 for a player in years. But the bigger surprise isn’t the prices on Trout or Cabrera but on some of the other hitters who cracked the $30 barrier.

Encarnacion and Fielder in particular jump out as potential overspends, not so much based on my opinions of their abilities but rather on how much they can potentially earn. A 40 HR, 120 RBI, 100 run, 1 SB, .300 BA in 624 at-bats effort is what Fielder would need to put up to earn $33. In Encarnacion’s case, he has never posted a batting average over .280; a $34 price is a strong bet that he’ll buck the trend and hit .300 or better.

With money being pushed to pitching and to the top-shelf hitters, the bargains had to come on the cheaper hitters… and they most certainly did.

• Justin Smoak $7
• Daniel Nava $5
• David Murphy $5
• Yunel Escobar $4
• Robbie Grossman $3
• David DeJesus $2
• Raul Ibanez $2
• Andy Dirks $2
• Alex Presley $2
• Lonnie Chisenhall $1
• Craig Gentry $1
• Ryan Hanigan $1

It’s easy to sit on the sidelines and nitpick about the players you don’t like. Below are some of the non-endgame buys I liked. While I’m not a believer in “tiered” pricing, I reviewed LABR exhaustively and provided a good buy or relative bargain in every price bracket over $5.

Chris Davis $31, Larry Schechter, Winning Fantasy Baseball
I wasn’t enamored with any of the prices at the top, but Davis was a relative bargain compared to the other hitters at the top of the heap. Fifty-plus home runs might not be realistic, but 35-40 home runs aren’t impossible. I like that Davis price better than what Fielder/Encarnacion went for in LABR.

Elvis Andrus $24, Tristan Cockcroft, ESPN
In a mixed league, I might not like paying this much for a mostly one-category player, even at middle infield. It is a different story in an only format, where getting all of these steals locked up at a middle-infield position is worth the investment.

Ian Kinsler $19, Tristan Cockcroft, ESPN
I get the concern about Kinsler’s decline and the move out of Texas, but at this price he would have to fall off the map entirely not to at least break even. Cockcroft put together a middle infield I’d be happy to have in AL-only.

Michael Bourn $17, Tristan Cockcroft, ESPN
Bourn’s drop-off last year is concerning but not alarming. I anticipate good health and a moderate bounce-back in steals.

Michael Brantley $15, Perry Van Hook, Mastersball
Brantley doesn’t seem like much at first glance, but he does a little bit of everything in 5x5.

Jason Castro $14, Perry Van Hook, Mastersball
Here is a case where the price might be too high but I really like the player. I believe Castro will maintain his health and strides he made last year. He offered nearly as much production as Salvador Perez did in 2013 and has consistently been getting drafted/purchased for less.

Oswaldo Arcia $10, Chris Liss, Rotowire
Arcia hit 14 home runs in 351 at-bats last year. Even if the batting average doesn’t progress, he will more than earn his keep at $10.

Josh Willingham $9, Greg Ambrosius/Shawn Childs, NFBC/Stats, Inc.
Willingham had a down season in 2013 but hit 30-plus home runs as recently as 2012. With power dwindling across the board, $9 is a very safe price even if Willingham is in decline.

Max Scherzer $27, Chris Liss, Rotowire
Whether or not you believe this is a good price depends on your philosophy about paying for an ace. If you think $27 is too high for Scherzer, that’s fair—but given the market on the second-tier pitchers, he was a relative bargain.

Koji Uehara $19, Dave Adler, Baseball HQ
Some of my colleagues are down on Uehara because he’s a risk to get hurt or lose a significant number of innings, but I really like the buy on the rate stats under $20 to go with the saves.

Matt Moore $15, Greg Ambrosius/Shawn Childs, NFBC/Stats, Inc.
Many don’t like Moore for 2014, but those strikeouts provide a significant chunk of Moore’s value. Even if he falls off of a cliff, the high whiff totals give him a much higher floor than a non-strikeout pitcher would have.

Hisashi Iwakuma $14, Brandon Funston, Yahoo! Sports
Yes, the finger is a concern but even five healthy and productive months of Iwakuma will be a bargain at $14.

Fernando Rodney $12, Larry Schechter, Winning Fantasy Baseball
I have little love for Rodney, but he has the contract and the job in Seattle, and was one of the cheaper closers on the board.

Jarrod Parker $8, Chris Liss, Rotowire
While all of the other A’s starters went for a big pile of cash, Parker slipped under the radar. The high HR rate concerns me, but pitching in Oakland should mask that somewhat.

Ubaldo Jimenez $7, Ray Flowers, Sirius XM
See Moore above. Jimenez’s high strikeout totals make him an asset if he does well and a relatively low risk candidate if he doesn’t. This holds even more in the AL, where the league-average ERA is somewhat higher than in the NL.

Jesse Crain $6, Nicholas Minnix, KFFL.com
At $6, I don’t have to believe that Crain will be the closer from pole to pole. 15-20 saves for a single-digit bid would make him a bargain.

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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