February 27, 2014

Dynasty League Positional Rankings

Top 175 Starting Pitchers

by Bret Sayre

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To read the previous articles in this series, follow the links below:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Shortstops
• Third Basemen
• Outfielders

The Primer:
Because dynasty league rankings are relatively league-dependent, I set up parameters for ranking the players below (and the ones who will follow at other positions). The list here presupposes a 16-team standard dynasty format, where there are no contracts/salaries, players can be kept forever and owners have minor league farm systems in which to hoard prospects. So feel free to adjust this as necessary for your individual league, whether it’s moving non-elite prospects without 2014 ETA’s down if you don’t have separate farm teams or moving lower-risk, lower-reward players up in deeper mixed or only formats.

Even with Matt Harvey’s elbow explosion, 2013 will go down as the year of the young pitcher breakouts. And that leads to a lot of new faces toward the top of this list. Of course, it’s not all wine and roses for all of these young players, as people are getting a little overexcited about some relatively small samples—but more on that later. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there was were a number of “stable” and “low-risk” pitchers who took a tumble down this list in the last 12 months, which goes to show you that those words only mean so much when it comes to those who occupy the mound. In the prospect world, we have a few choice guys with front of the rotation upside, but many more of the strong number three starter variety. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, as a many high-end dynasty rotations have been built using a Costco-sized group of number threes.

And now, your top 175 starting pitchers in dynasty formats

• 1) Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
• 2) Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
• 3) Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
• 4) Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
• 5) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

It may surprise some to see King Felix sandwiched in between the current aces and the future aces, but his consistency and track record speak for themselves. He has the whole package: the durability, the skills and the ballpark. We know what these other guys are. Fernandez and Strasburg could compete for Cy Young awards for years in the National League, but Fernandez gets the slight edge for both age and (fair or not) the injury association for Strasburg.

• 6) Adam Wainwright, St Louis Cardinals
• 7) Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates

I love both of these guys. Wainwright has the skill set to continue his run of success well into his 30s and Cole has the stuff to be mentioned alongside Fernandez and Strasburg in short order.

• 8) Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
• 9) David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
• 10) Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
• 11) Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
• 12) Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

More aces. Pitching is thick at the top in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

• 13) Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
• 14) Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
• 15) Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
• 16) Matt Harvey, New York Mets
• 17) Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
• 18) Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
• 19) Shelby Miller, St Louis Cardinals
• 20) Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
• 21) James Shields, Kansas City Royals
• 22) Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
• 23) Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
• 24) Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers
• 25) Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
• 26) Zack Wheeler, New York Mets
• 27) Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
• 28) Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Here’s the thick no. 2 starter tier, before we get into the high-end prospects and major leaguers who either have too much risk or not enough upside to reach this point. Harvey would have been no. 5 on this list if he hadn’t gone under the knife, and even though I don’t think this changes his long-term value much, the lost year gives him a good hit. Consider me in the camp of people who aren’t losing sleep over Homer Bailey’s velocity—even if he gives a little of it back, he’s a better pitcher than he was three or four years ago. And also throw me in the camp of people who can’t figure out why more people don’t love Alex Cobb. Though with his skills, you probably knew I’d say that.

• 29) Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
• 30) Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 31) Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets

These are the three best fantasy pitching prospects in the game. Learn their names, for they will take you places.

• 32) Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
• 33) Jarrod Parker, Oakland Athletics
• 34) Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
• 35) Doug Fister, Washington Nationals
• 36) Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
• 37) Michael Wacha, St Louis Cardinals
• 38) Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
• 39) Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
• 40) Kris Medlen, Atlanta Braves

These players are strong pitchers or prospects but don’t have enough to break into the tiers above. I’m still a pretty sizable believer in Jarrod Parker—he started off 2013 on a terrible foot, but had a 3.22 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last 24 starts of the season. This is a reasonable spot to have Michael Wacha, who opened a lot of eyes in the playoffs last season, but is still pretty easily the third best option in his own rotation.

• 41) Lucas Giolito, Washington Nationals
• 42) Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
• 43) Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres
• 44) Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees

You want risk? This group has it in spades. Two Tommy John recoverees, a big-time starter with a big-time injury history, and the undefeated legend from Japan who will have to contend with both major-league hitters and the short porch at Yankee Stadium.

• 45) Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
• 46) Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners.
• 47) CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
• 48) Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
• 49) Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
• 50) Jonathan Gray, Colorado Rockies
• 51) Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
• 52) Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
• 53) Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
• 54) Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 55) Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians
• 56) C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
• 57) Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 58) Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
• 59) R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays
• 60) Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

There’s not much of a wrong order you can put these 16 guys in. Danny Salazar has a lot of hype, but has a lot to prove both in performance sustainability and health. Martin Perez gets knocked for being a “failed” prospect, but his strikeout rate improved as 2013 went on and he’s adding a cutter this spring. R.A. Dickey may seem awfully high for a 38-year-old coming off a down year, but he’s due for a rebound and you can’t put knuckleballers into boxes (or if you do, at least cut holes in it).

• 61) Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
• 62) Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
• 63) Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 64) Kyle Zimmer, Kansas City Royals
• 65) Mark Appel, Houston Astros
• 66) Ivan Nova, New York Yankees
• 67) Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers
• 68) Josh Johnson, San Diego Padres
• 69) Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
• 70) Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
• 71) Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves
• 72) Lance Lynn, St Louis Cardinals
• 73) Andrew Heaney, Miami Marlins
• 74) Matt Wisler, San Diego Padres
• 75) Max Fried, San Diego Padres
• 76) Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
• 77) Jonathan Niese, New York Mets
• 78) Derek Holland, Texas Rangers
• 79) Eddie Butler, Colorado Rockies
• 80) Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
• 81) Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
• 82) Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
• 83) Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians
• 84) Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore Orioles
• 85) John Lackey, Boston Red Sox
• 86) Alex Meyer, Minnesota Twins
• 87) Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds
• 88) Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
• 89) Ervin Santana, Free Agent
• 90) Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
• 91) Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 92) Kohl Stewart, Minnesota Twins
• 93) Trevor Cahill, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 94) Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves
• 95) Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 96) Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
• 97) Dan Straily, Oakland Athletics

So many names. Josh Johnson and Ian Kennedy will get some helium as the season draws closer, but both should be nice value bounce backs in San Diego. Niese will get knocked down substantially if there’s anything even slightly disturbing in his MRI. I still believe in Trevor Cahill, even though he keeps giving me more reasons not to. Porcello is a guy to watch, especially with Jose Iglesias and Ian Kinsler now presiding over the middle of the infield.

• 98) Brett Anderson, Colorado Rockies

Just because we’ve all been unsuccessfully waiting for Anderson to fulfill his promise doesn’t mean that we should give up all hope. Coors Field be damned, he still has the skill to do this.

• 99) Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
• 100) Kyle Crick, San Francisco Giants
• 101) Edwin Jackson, Chicago Cubs
• 102) Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox
• 103) Jacob Turner, Miami Marlins
• 104) Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
• 105) Dillon Gee, New York Mets
• 106) A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies
• 107) Henry Owens, Boston Red Sox
• 108) Miguel Almonte, Kansas City Royals
• 109) Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles
• 110) Ricky Nolasco, Minnesota Twins
• 111) Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
• 112) Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies
• 113) James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
• 114) Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers
• 115) Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants
• 116) Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
• 117) Lucas Sims, Atlanta Braves
• 118) Sean Manaea, Kansas City Royals
• 119) Hunter Harvey, Baltimore Orioles
• 120) Braden Shipley, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 121) Nate Eovaldi, Miami Marlins
• 122) A.J. Griffin, Oakland Athletics

Don’t question my love of Edwin Jackson, you’ll only get hurt. Duffy has the raw stuff to be a top-50 player on this list, but he can’t harness it the way he needs to in games to throw real innings. Add Chacin to the growing list of pitchers with injury concerns. I’m not a big Tyson Ross believer, as is obvious by this ranking, and he’ll have to show it to me again this year before I change my mind. Watch out for Sean Manaea—when this list comes out again next year, he could be dangerously close to the major leagues if he’s as healthy as the Royals claim this spring.

• 123) Jaime Garcia, St Louis Cardinals

This is such a hedge here. We don’t know what’s going on inside of Garcia’s shoulder, but it’s not a prairie filled with unicorns dancing under rainbows. If he needs surgery, he’s practically off the list. If he were perfectly healthy, with returning velocity, he’d be on the verge of the top 50.

• 124) Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
• 125) Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels
• 126) Mike Foltynewicz, Houston Astros
• 127) Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers
• 128) Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays
• 129) Eduardo Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles
• 130) Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
• 131) Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
• 132) C.J. Edwards, Chicago Cubs
• 133) Alex Gonzalez, Texas Rangers
• 134) A.J. Cole, Washington Nationals
• 135) Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers
• 136) Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers
• 137) Brandon Maurer, Seattle Mariners
• 138) Rafael Montero, New York Mets
• 139) Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers
• 140) Jarred Cosart, Houston Astros
• 141) Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
• 142) Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros
• 143) Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 144) Justin Nicolino, Miami Marlins
• 145) Lewis Thorpe, Minnesota Twins
• 146) Adalberto Mejia, San Francisco Giants
• 147) Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
• 148) Alexander Reyes, St Louis Cardinals
• 149) Casey Kelly, San Diego Padres
• 150) Wandy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 151) Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs
• 152) Randall Delgado, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 153) Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
• 154) Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
• 155) Matt Barnes, Boston Red Sox
• 156) Nick Kingham, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 157) Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
• 158) Vincent Velasquez, Houston Astros
• 159) Erasmo Ramirez, Seattle Mariners
• 160) Allen Webster, Boston Red Sox
• 161) Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angeles
• 162) Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies
• 163) Taylor Jordan, Washington Nationals
• 164) Bud Norris, Baltimore Orioles
• 165) Joe Kelly, St Louis Cardinals
• 166) Joe Ross, San Diego Padres
• 167) Jose Martinez, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 168) Brandon McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 169) Edwin Escobar, San Francisco Giants
• 170) Miguel Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles
• 171) Pierce Johnson, Chicago Cubs
• 172) Zach Lee, Los Angeles Dodgers
• 173) Erik Johnson, Chicago White Sox
• 174) Henderson Alvarez, Miami Marlins
• 175) Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays

This is a lot of names. Some of them pitch better than others. Some even throw with their left hands. Three names in this group to keep an eye on: Brandon Maurer, Casey Kelly, and Taylor Jordan. All three are young and have more upside than they’ve been able to show in their brief major-league careers.

Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @BretSayreBP
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