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February 19, 2014
BP Daily Podcast
Effectively Wild Episode 389: 2014 Season Preview Series: Pittsburgh Pirates
by Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller and Nick Wheatley-Schaller
Ben and Sam preview the Pirates' season with Michael Clair, and Nick talks to Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Pirates reporter Travis Sawchik (at 27:45).
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Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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You can contact Sam by clicking here
Nick Wheatley-Schaller is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Nick's other articles.
You can contact Nick by clicking here
<< Previous Article
Prospects Will Break Y... (02/18)
|
<< Previous Column
BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (02/18)
|
Next Column >>
BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (02/20)
|
Next Article >>
Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (02/19)
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2 comments have been left for this article. 
Wow. So they really do expect ultra-regression. I'm shocked. I would have expected a post-regression Pittsburgh to be a middle-of-the-pack team, not a bottom-ten bunch. There are just too many other teams in baseball that really aren't very good.
I think the biggest issue is that they have so many guys expected to regress negatively but nobody who really had a down year and has room to bounce back.
Going by 2013 WARP-Projected 2014 WARP:
McCutchen: -2 Wins
Alvarez: -2.1 Wins
Marte: -0.9 Wins
Martin: -1.1 Wins
Walker: -0.6 Wins
Mercer: +0.4 Wins
Liriano: -0.7 Wins
Melancon: -0.7 Wins
So -7.7 Wins from those guys regressing, then another -1.6 for losing Burnett, and you're at -9.3. They won 94 games last year, but only 88 games by Pythagorean record, so if you subtract the 9 wins from that they are at 79 wins, close to PECOTA's 78.