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February 1, 1999 Pitcher Usage and Result Patterns: Colorado RockiesFocus on 1998 Rockies starting pitchingWhen half of your team's schedule is played in a ballpark that increases run production by fifty percent, the manager has to be able to adjust his thinking to account for that distortion. As the Colorado Rockies' manager since their inception, Don Baylor has been the only man who has had to operate within this skewed reality on a daily basis. This altitude-induced twisting of the truth shows up in the data for their starting pitchers. For example, at first blush, their quality start percentage of 40% seems unacceptably poor, and certainly ranked near the bottom of the league. However, breaking that number into a home/road split, we find that the percentage of quality starts was 49% on the road and 30% at Coors Field. Figures like this further reinforce the idea that the 1998 Rockies sunk to the depths of the National League West primarily because of their inability
Baylor gave the first two opportunities at the five-spot in the Rockies' rotation to a couple of guys with a dangerous combination--historically weak peripheral numbers and recent shoulder surgeries. Mark Thompson opened the season following rotator cuff surgery in 1997. He admitted that his shoulder was still weak after not logging a quality start in his first six tries. The weakness was eventually diagnosed as a partially torn shoulder muscle, ending his season. Fear not, riding to the rescue was Colorado's all-time leading winner, Kevin Ritz--fresh off of surgery for a torn labrum. Baylor apparently didn't notice the 13-0 shellacking that Ritz suffered in his last rehab start in Triple-A. Ritz was pathetic in two outings before also complaining of shoulder weakness, which finished his year. Now 34 years old, Ritz' best chance of getting back on a major league mound is a door-to-door sales position in suburban Seattle. Desperate for a fifth starter, Baylor turned to chronically wild southpaw Bobby Jones (that's Bobby M. Jones), who began the season as the twelfth man in the bullpen. Jones found the plate often enough to earn 3 QS+BQS in his first three attempts, thereby solving Baylor's pitching dilemma. Before his season ended with a sprained knee in mid-September, Jones was the surprise of the Rockies staff, finishing with 55% QS+BQS (including 8 of 9 on the road). Perhaps Baylor should have watched him more closely, as Jones weakened in the late innings and led the team with four BQS. Both Mike Saipe and Mark Brownson logged a couple of starts with the Rox while Thomson was on the DL. Each had one quality start (Brownson's was a complete game shutout over the Astros) before being shipped back to Colorado Springs when off days enabled Baylor to skip the fifth starter's spot. Although neither had much Triple-A experience prior to 1998, seasoning shouldn't be used as an excuse as to why Baylor didn't give one or both a longer look later in the year. The D-backs weren't exactly threatening the Rockies stranglehold on fourth place. The Rockies rotation made 111 starts on four or fewer days' rest--the highest total of any team looked at so far. The core starters (Kile, Astacio and Wright) primarily shouldered the burden, as they were consistently shifted up in the rotation when the schedule permitted. Baylor tried to reconcile this by generally keeping pitch counts reasonable and by pulling his starters when they showed fatigue--10 BQS doesn't seem like a bad number for a team based on Planet Coors. It was discouraging that Baylor didn't attempt to plug-in any of his minor league moundsmen towards the end of the campaign, but he may have been engaging in a vain attempt to save his job. Free agent pitchers are beginning to use Colorado as nothing more than a bargaining chip at the negotiating table due to prior disappointments in Coors (Swift, Saberhagen, Kile). The reality is that pitching at 5000 feet isn't a great career move, so the development of young arms takes on extra importance in the Rockies' organization. Advice for Jim Leyland: (insert Santana soundtrack) "You've got to change your evil ways."
Kile Days rest Thomson Days rest 3 4 5 Totals 4 5 6+ Totals Starts 1 26 8 35 Starts 16 6 4 26 QS 0 12 5 17 QS 10 1 3 14 %QS .00 .46 .63 .49 %QS .63 .17 .75 .54 BQS 0 2 0 2 BQS 0 0 0 0 %QS+BQS .00 .54 .63 .54 %QS+BQS .63 .17 .75 .54 Avg # pitches 66 106 101 104 Avg # pitches 92 94 99 94 Astacio Days rest Wright Days rest 3 4 5 6+ Totals 3 4 5 6+ Totals Starts 1 24 8 1 34 Starts 1 23 8 2 34 QS 0 7 3 1 11 QS 0 11 2 0 13 %QS .00 .29 .38 1.00 .32 %QS .00 .48 .25 .00 .38 BQS 0 3 0 0 3 BQS 0 1 0 0 1 %QS+BQS .00 .42 .38 1.00 .41 %QS+BQS .00 .52 .25 .00 .41 Avg # pitches 89 100 103 110 100 Avg # pitches 68 98 89 85 94 Jones Days rest Thompson Days rest 4 5 6+ Totals 4 5 6+ Totals Starts 12 3 5 20 Starts 4 0 2 6 QS 5 0 2 7 QS 0 0 0 0 %QS .42 .00 .40 .35 %QS .00 .00 .00 .00 BQS 1 1 2 4 BQS 0 0 0 0 %QS+BQS .50 .33 .80 .55 %QS+BQS .00 .00 .00 .00 Avg # pitches 99 99 96 98 Avg # pitches 71 0 69 70 Ritz Days rest Saipe Days rest 4 5 6+ Totals 5 6+ Totals Starts 1 0 1 2 Starts 2 0 2 QS 0 0 0 0 QS 1 0 1 %QS .00 .00 .00 .00 %QS .50 .00 .50 BQS 0 0 0 0 BQS 0 0 0 %QS+BQS .00 .00 .00 .00 %QS+BQS .50 .00 .50 Avg # pitches 70 0 95 83 Avg # pitches 92 0 92 Brownson Days rest DeJean Days rest 4 5 6+ Totals 2 3 4 5 Totals Starts 1 1 0 2 Starts 1 0 0 0 1 QS 1 0 0 1 QS 0 0 0 0 0 %QS 1.00 .00 .00 .50 %QS .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 BQS 0 0 0 0 BQS 0 0 0 0 0 %QS+BQS 1.00 .00 .00 .50 %QS+BQS .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 Avg # pitches 100 85 0 93 Avg # pitches 47 0 0 0 47
Christina Kahrl is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 0 comments have been left for this article.
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