February 11, 2014

Graphical Fantasy Rankings

Third Base

by Mauricio Rubio

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For earlier articles in this series, click below:

• Primer and C graph
• 1B Graph
• 2B Graph
• SS Graph

Third base isn’t first base when it comes to robust production, but there are a host of intriguing options up and down the position. Miguel Cabrera sits atop the list and the separation factor can be read into the differences between the numbers. Before we dive in, let’s look at the graph:

Again, these graphs are based on the PECOTA book projections, but we’ll soon have a more reader-friendly interface that will present you with more options (including interchangeable stats for those of you in leagues with different stat layouts). For now, we can see that the book’s projections are extremely pessimistic about Xander Bogaerts’ playing time. Take that with a gigantic grain of salt—he’ll play, and while I don’t expect him to hit the ground at a Trout-esque pace (nobody should), he’ll be a legit option at third this year.

There’s a lot more gray in this graph, especially in the power categories. Some of this is because of PECOTA seeing bounce-back years from guys like Chase Headley and Pablo Sandoval. There’s also a lot of optimism around Brett Lawrie in this chart. I think that’s an interesting, albeit somewhat expected, development given his age and player profile. In the one-star tier, Todd Frazier is seemingly out of place among guys like Juan Uribe and Matt Davidson. I think the big limiting factor with Frazier is his inability to hit for average, which can hurt your team if you carry too many similar hitters.

There’s pretty good production and value to be had here. For the curious, here are the stat bins:

Mauricio Rubio is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MRubio52
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