February 5, 2014
BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft
Rounds 8-10
by Bret Sayre
It’s finally here—the end of the mock draft. If you want to see how the previous seven rounds went, check out the links below (the settings/setup are in the first installment):
I hope this has been a fun exercise to read, as the 14 of us had a lot of fun on the participation side. I want to again thank all of the experts who lent their time and their words to our grand experiment. And now, the final three rounds of the BP Expert Mock Prospect Draft:
Round Eight
8.99) Jonathan Schoop, 2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“Schoop is another infielder on the verge of the majors that I'm happy to add to my team. He's got playable power despite never topping 14 in a full season. He's been pushed aggressively by the Orioles, depressing his production in the process, but he should still be a solid major leaguer and will break in either at second base or third base, with either position lacking much depth. He's not a star, but there's value to his immediacy, and at 22 years old we shouldn't think that he's done developing, and I think a role-5 type is a reasonable expectation going forward. It's not flashy, but in the infield, it's worth owning.”
8.100) Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Minnesota Twins (Nick Faleris, Baseball Prospectus)
It was going to be Schoop or Rosario here, and the availability of both three picks ago is what lead me to pop Williams a round earlier than I had originally planned. Rosario is clunky at second base, and there hasn't been enough growth in the defensive game for me to be confident he's a second baseman long term. That said, there's a chance he sticks there, and if he does he could produce a good average with a chance for some playable pop and stolen bases. Should he shift back to the outfield, the production will be less valuable, but still worthy of ownership. Fingers crossed the Twins give him a long leash at the keystone.”
8.101) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“Six of my first seven picks were position players, as the higher-ceiling arms never seemed to make it to where I wanted to select them. I'm going more for floor than huge upside with my second arm here. Jake Odorizzi doesn't have a sexy pitch and he doesn't make hitters look silly, but he throws three solid offerings for strikes and has the athleticism and delivery to stay durable. With the Rays playing their usual quality defense behind him, he should be good for double-digit wins and reliable ERAs and WHIPs while striking out a respectable number of batters. And he's ready for the big leagues now, so I don't have to worry how he'll survive the pitching battle of attrition in the minors.”
8.102) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports)
“The leg injury is obviously a concern, but he's a strong defensive shortstop who should be close to the majors once he gets healthy (and he's supposed to be healthy to start the season) and has 30-plus SB potential. Hopefully, he'll improve his contact and power skills at the plate, but even if he's a .250 average/.100 ISO guy, he should be useful for fantasy leagues once he proves that he's back to full health.”
8.103) D.J. Davis, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“Davis is a high risk/reward gamble in the eighth round (or any round for that matter) considering there were countless players with realistic futures in the majors still on the board. The 19-year-old center fielder’s combination of elite speed and above-average raw power gives him huge fantasy upside—even more so if he can carve out a role at the top of the order and score runs on the reg. However, that flattering projection comes with a caveat, as Davis’ hit tool (.240 BA/.329 BABIP, 29.5 K%, 10.1 BB% in 258 PA) and general baseball skills are raw and will require years to develop in the minor leagues. Crap… did I just draft Anthony Gose?”
8.104) Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies (Nick Shlain, Rotowire)
“Looking back now, I think I took the wrong Jesse with my last pick, expecting Winker to make it here. I really wanted Rosell Herrera and Winker with those picks and it didn't work out, so Murphy is the end of waiting on players I really like at this point. I normally don't go for catching prospects because it is such a tough position, but Murphy is a polished college catcher with a broad skill set. Scouts I've talked to raved about him as a potential five-tool player with big power and the prospect of hitting at Coors Field is also appealing.”
8.105) Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston Red Sox (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“I feel like I'm missing something. Are we as a group really THIS low on Barnes one year after he went nearly 40 spots higher in this same draft? Yes, his 2013 wasn't terribly inspiring, but the talent that made him a high draft pick and a no-doubt top-100 name a year ago still exists, and Barnes could conceivably see the majors at some point in 2014, with a 2015 debut likely.
Is it still reasonable to put am OFP of no. 2 starter on him? Probably not. But I also don't buy the argument that he'll need to move to the bullpen, and I think he's still quite capable of being a high-strikeout, high-WHIP no. 3 starter and no. 4/5 fantasy option. Let the whispers of "Red Sox homer" fly about, but I like him better than most of the last 25-30 names who've come off the board.”
8.106) Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Houston Astros (Mike Newman, RotoScouting)
"Is it me, or are the other people drafting trying to avoid pitchers like they have a case of the cooties? Their loss is my gain as I add another mid-90s-pumping strikeout artist to the fold. I admittedly didn't love McCullers when I saw him in the Appalachian League. However, his power arsenal will play in the back of a big-league bullpen even if McCullers' feel for pitching never full develops.
From a numbers standpoint, McCullers had as strong a 2013 as one could hope for. With a high ground-ball rate and more strikeouts than innings pitched, his prospect value would skyrocket if the walk rate comes down."
8.107) Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Boston Red Sox (J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter)
“The Red Sox's Opening Day center fielder should be at least average in four categories this season with more potential in runs and stolen bases. Bradley isn't an upside selection, but he satisfies two of three aforementioned characteristics I target—proximity and position scarcity. In 14-team leagues, third outfielders can be scarce; I found mine in the eighth Round of a minor league draft.”
8.108) Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Minnesota Twins (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“I spent six of my first seven picks on position players, so it's about time I took a high-ceiling arm who is a long way away from contributing. Thorpe has the potential for three plus pitches, including a fastball that could play at plus-plus, to go along with an advanced approach and athleticism from the left-hand side. That kind of package doesn't come around all that often, even if it still firmly planted in the dream stage.”
8.109) A.J. Cole, RHP, Washington Nationals (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“Dammit, I was going to take Thorpe. Cole has been inconsistent, but when he's on, he's tough to beat, throwing strikes with mid-90s fastball, changeup, and erratic breaking ball. He was particularly effective late in the year in Double-A, where he posted a 2.18 ERA with a sharp 49-to-10 K:BB in 45 innings. The fact that he maintained strong K:BB and K:IP ratios set after his promotion is an excellent sign for his future. Since he's been on prospect lists for awhile, there may be some analytic fatigue with Cole since he's not a shiny new toy, but I still like his chances.”
8.110) Domingo Santana, OF, Houston Astros (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“Sticking with the hitter theme, Santana offers owners a power bat and a strikeout rate that matches the power... and then some. Santana may strike out too much, but he also knows how to take a walk, so he has that going for him. With power down across the sport, Santana has a chance to be an everyday outfielder in Houston in a year or so.”
8.111) Mason Williams, OF, New York Yankees (Chris Crawford, MLB Draft Insider)
“Yes, Williams had his struggles in 2013, but at this point in the draft, he's just too talented to pass on. If the Yankees can make some mechanical refinements and he goes back to driving the ball into the gaps like he did in 2012, he's a potential .300 hitter with 25-30 homers, and he can steal you 30-plus bases with plus-plus speed. There's some volatility here, but I think the risk is worth the reward.”
8.112) Hunter Dozier, 3B, Kansas City Royals (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“Hunter Dozier was never a shortstop, and he's also already turning 23 this year without a taste of Double-A. But at least he went in and did what he was supposed to, which was make contact and hit for power. There's a 98 percent chance that a top-10-pick position player sees significant time in the major leagues and an 87 percent chance that the playing time comes within three years of being drafted. While the pick was panned at the time, I'm not forced to pick him in the first round like the Royals felt compelled to. There's little reason to hold him back, at least. And it's not all bad—above-average bat speed and a thick, strong body could be his route to being the Royals’ third baseman of the future.”
Round Nine
9.113) Nick Kingham, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“Nick Kingham has the fastball velocity, plus curveball, and command that should make him a starter. It's not great that his walk rate doubles against lefties, and that he's had some struggles against them in the past, but he's made some strides over the past year with the changeup. (His velocity has been trending upwards as well.) I believe the changeup will be enough to get grounders from lefties and make him a middle-of-the-rotation starter... in Pittsburgh, which shifts for its pitchers and resides in a pitcher's park in the National League. Kingham's close to the bigs, too.”
9.114) Vincent Velasquez, RHP, Houston Astros (Chris Crawford, MLB Draft Insider)
“I almost swooped Velasquez up a couple of rounds earlier when I took Hunter Harvey, and I'm pleased to be able to procure his services this late in the draft. With a 92-95 fastball containing some sink and a change that flashes plus-plus, Velasquez has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter if his curveball shows more consistency, and at the very worst, he should be a solid no. 3 who can miss bats.”
9.115 Harold Ramirez, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“Ramirez was selected as the no. 1 prospect in the New York-Penn league in 2013, and some have given him some lofty comparisons that I won't even bother mentioning here. He had a solid season at the plate in short season ball, showing an ability to hit for average, get on base and steal some bases. The power should come as he matures, and if it does, he could rise up prospect lists in the next year or two. Just another in a long line of solid outfield prospects the Pirates system keeps churning out.”
9.116) Henry Urrutia, OF, Baltimore Orioles (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“I haven't drafted any outfielders yet. I was initially tempted to take a low-level longshot, but since several of my other picks are designed for immediate impact (Erik Johnson, James Paxton, Josmil Pinto), I decided to stick with the "immediate help" theme and look for someone close to the majors. He's not traditional due to his age, but Cuban outfielder Henry Urrutia looks interesting. He showed some solid hitting skills in the upper minors last year and looked good in the Arizona Fall League. He's reportedly gained 20 pounds of muscle this winter, which could/should increase his power production.”
9.117) Casey Kelly, RHP, San Diego Padres (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“Time to balance the dreams of my last few picks with the reality of a player who should see major league time in 2014. Kelly doesn’t have much projection left at this point, but he remains athletic and pitches in a wonderful home park for his skill set. He’s not likely to be a top-25 pitcher at any point in his career, but he should be a solid back-of-the-rotation option for my team over the next half-decade or so.”
9.118) Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres (J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter)
“In my primary dynasty league Renfroe slid further in our Rule 4 draft than expected as well. The cause? Possibly PETCO's park factors, but it’s likely strikeout concerns that caused his drop. Frankly, in round nine, there are no perfect selections, but home runs and stolen bases should be prioritized over batting average. We know batting average does not normalize within a full season's plate appearances causing high variability whereas home runs and stolen bases have higher year-to-year correlation. Renfroe has well-above-average power and enough speed to quell concerns about his batting average. His college pedigree is an added bonus.”
9.119) Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (Mike Newman, RotoScouting)
“In prospect drafts, pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery see their value plummet. I understand why, to a point, but it's not a very risky surgery in terms of maintaining performance level upon return. In this draft, Lucas Giolito and Dylan Bundy, were both drafted in the top 20 after having TJ. If things break right, Guerrieri will provide a tremendous return on investment at pick 119.
This isn't to say his stuff is on par with the aforementioned pitchers. It's not, but Guerrieri has does throw 91-93 mph with the potential for plus command. Add in his developing breaking pitches and the right-hander is a safe bet to become a no. 3 starter at the major-league level.”
9.120) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“Maybe I'm paying too much for name value here, but with other people taking lottery tickets who are still years away from the majors, I'll take one who could see some starts in 2015 in Bauer. His 2013 was really, really bad, he sucks at rapping and the character concerns/unwillingness to be coached certainly give me reason for pause. But Bauer is still only 23 and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he looks at last year and figures that something's gotta give. It's more likely that he's just a bust, I know, but this late in the draft I'll take my chances and am pleased that Bauer won't suck up an MiLB roster spot for 3-4 years.
As an aside, losing A.J. Cole and Domingo Santana in back to back picks was quite a punch to the gut. Great picks by both of you.”
9.121) Tyler Austin, OF, New York Yankees (Nick Shlain, Rotowire)
“A wrist injury sapped Austin's power in 2013 (.116 ISO), but I need to take an outfielder sometime and at this point in the draft there aren't many potential regulars still available. Austin is a legitimate hitter and if he gets over his injuries could get his power back. For fantasy it's also important to remember Austin stole 23 bases and was caught just twice in his breakout 2012 season.”
9.122) Franchy Cordero, SS, San Diego Padres (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“Cordero put himself on the map last summer with an outstanding stateside debut in the Arizona League, batting .333/.381/.511 with 13 extra-base hits and 11 stolen bases in 157 plate appearances. The 19-year-old shortstop already has easy power from the left side of the plate that should play with greater frequency as he grows into his projectable 6-foot-3, 175-pound frame. His swing is pretty; it’s leveraged but still relatively quiet, and he generates big-time extension after contact thanks to his long arms. Though his larger build will always make Cordero a candidate to slide over to third base, early reports suggest that he should be able to stick at shortstop. If that projection holds true, then Cordero’s hit/power/speed potential could make him a top-tier fantasy option up the middle.”
9.123) Gregory Bird, 1B, New York Yankees (Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports)
“He doesn't get a ton of love as a prospect, but I really like what Bird did last year and what the Oliver projection system sees him doing in the future. Last year, he posted a 170 wRC+, including an 18.7 BB% in Class-A ball, while collecting 59 extra-base hits (including 20 HRs) in 573 PA. He strikes out a good amount, which will hurt in batting-average leagues (he'd be significantly more valuable in OBP leagues), but Oliver sees him hitting about .250/.381/.481 with 27 HRs by his age-25 season. Add in the fact that he's a lefty who will be coming up into Yankee Stadium and that Oliver projects him to be a more valuable 1B than Teixeira starting next season, and I'm intrigued enough to grab him here.”
9.124) Marcus Semien, 2B/SS, Chicago White Sox (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“I'm not sure exactly what to make of Semien, who hit just 10 homers in three college seasons at California but has drilled 35 in his two full years as a pro. He hit 21 homers last year (including two in the majors), and he posted a .401 OBP while walking (98) more than he struck out in minors (90). Those stats are gaudier than his tools, but in U.S. Cellular Field, I could see him reaching double figures in homers and steals, and I'll take that from a middle infielder. He's capable of playing shortstop, second base, and third base, and he's ready now, two more attributes that enhance his value.”
9.125) Eric Jagielo, 3B, New York Yankees (Nick Faleris, Baseball Prospectus)
“After a streaky pre-draft spring, amateur evaluators were divided as to Jagielo's hit tool and power utility, not to mention the defensive chops at third. For the purposes of a fantasy draft, however, the .280/25 upside at a relatively thin MLB position is enough to warrant a late-round flier. I like his history with wood, and Notre Dame's nightmarishly soggy and cold 2013 (I scouted one conference series at a balmy 25-28 degrees) was a less-than-ideal offensive environment. There's risk, but there's also a chance he emerges in 2014 as one of the better offensive corner prospects in the game. The fact that he's a lefty with pop working towards 81 games in Yankee Stadium further adds to the appeal.”
9.126) Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“McMahon was a second-round pick in the 2013 draft and a multi-sport athlete in high school. Even with a split focus, McMahon developed a pretty swing that is geared for average and power, and should only see that power grow in the high offensive environments of the Colorado system. There's a lot of risk in grabbing a prospect as far down as McMahon, who only has rookie-ball statistics on the back of his baseball card, but I believe the upside warrants it. Beyond that, picking prospects is like picking stocks in some respects—sure, his power might be overstated up the chain thanks to those environments—but if I believe a breakout is coming (which I surely do) then I can trade McMahon at a healthy profit come next season.”
Round Ten
10.127) Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Kansas City Royals (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“My last pick is a personal favorite, Jorge Bonifacio. He's not likely to be a star, but I strongly believe in his ability to be an everyday right fielder at the major-league level. He reached Double-A in his age-20 season and continues to hit for average and power, though the power production was depressed in the pitcher friendly Carolina League. His numbers might never blow anyone away in the minors, but he's always been young for his level and has the ceiling of a first division outfielder. I love the way he hits to all fields and barrels the ball. It's not a lottery ticket so to speak, but I'll happily take someone I think is a surefire major leaguer this late in the game.”
10.128) Marco Gonzales, LHP, St Louis Cardinals (Nick Faleris, Baseball Prospectus)
I love athletic pitchers, and Gonzales is just that. He sports a true plus-plus change with swing-and-miss utility that he can also work to both sides and utilize as a freeze pitch. The slider comes and goes, but he found more consistency with the pitch last spring, and the 88-91-mph fastball plays way up due to the quality of the off-speed stuff. The mechanics are sound and he's a prime candidate to see an uptick in velocity once the Cardinals get him fully into the developmental system (he was eased into action in 2013). He's a high-floor arm that should provide value by 2015 and has a legit chance to rack up strikeouts based on the volume of innings he'll chew through.”
10.129) Edwin Escobar, LHP, San Francisco Giants (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“The Giants got a steal when they traded the rights to major-league Rule 5 pick Ben Snyder to the Rangers for Escobar, and I think I'm getting a steal with him, too. He's a left-hander who has three solid-to-plus pitches and the willingness to throw any of them in any count. He commands them all well, and he's in an organization that knows a thing or two about developing arms and plays in a park hospitable to pitchers. After a half-season in Triple-A, he'll be ready to help the Giants.”
10.130) Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets (Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports)
“With my last pick, I'll finally grab a batter who doesn't strike out all the time. Plawecki had an interesting year hitting 47 XBH, 42 walks, 24 HBP (led the minors), and struck out only 53 times in 521 PA while splitting the season between Low-A and High-A ball last year. It will be nice if some of those doubles start turning into HRs and if he can avoid injury from all those HBPs.”
10.131) Rio Ruiz, 3B, Houston Astros (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“Making his full-season debut alongside Carlos Correa at Low-A Quad Cities, Ruiz struggled mightily out of the gate with a .624 OPS and 12 extra-base through his first 51 games. However, the 19-year-old third baseman eventually settled in at the dish and proceeded to rake during the second half of the season, batting .297/.354/.521 with 34 extra-base hits (nine home runs) in his final 63 regular-season contests.
Ruiz’s selective approach (19.5 K%/10.6 BB% last season) and knack for barreling the ball will help him hit for average at the highest level, and it’s likely that some of his doubles will start to clear fences in the coming years. The 19-year-old’s glove receives mixed reviews at third base, with his arm representing his loudest tool on that side of the ball, and there’s a chance that he’ll be forced to move across the infield down the line. Either way, I believe in Ruiz’s bat and think it will offer plenty of fantasy value regardless of his long-term position.”
10.132) Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins (Nick Shlain, Rotowire)
10.133) Mike Olt, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“It feels sort of like 2013 again with my last two picks, but I don't want to bail on prospects we all pegged as top-50 guys last year just because of one down season. I'm tripling down on strikeout prone 3B with this pick, but Olt has 20-plus homer power and only has to beat out the likes of Luis Valbuena for playing time this year. He has a limited window through which to stick with the Cubs thanks to Bryant, and to a lesser degree Christian Villanueva, but I think he'll be a starter in this league and I think he's somewhat comparable to Matt Davidson, who went much earlier.
There's also a bit of drafting theory behind this pick. I'll know whether Olt is worth keeping around this season, whereas taking a high-upside arm (I long for you, Zach Eflin) would clog up a roster spot for a long time. If Olt's contact issues are legit I cut bait and take one of this year's J2 guys later in our theoretical season, and I don't lose much sleep over it.”
10.134) Cesar Puello, OF, New York Mets (Mike Newman, RotoScouting)
“The PED boogie man allowed New York Mets prospect Cesar Puello to slip to the tenth round. Why else would a 22-year old who posted a .950 OPS in Double-A including 16 home runs and 24 steals in only 91 games last this long? I'm thrilled to have the young outfielder having written multiple reports on Puello from his time in Savannah. In fact, eight of my ten picks are players scouted in person, which is either pretty cool or a sign I'm getting old.
Puello's path to New York is clear having signed Chris Young as a one-year stopgap. At the major-league level, he has enough power and speed to push 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases annually. Plate discipline is a concern given Puello's aggressive approach, but it should improve—at least marginally—with experience. From a draft standpoint, Puello evens up my prospect haul at five pitchers and position players. Plus, adding a premium athlete this late leaves me feeling better about taking a pair of plodding corner infielders in the early rounds.”
10.135) Alexander Guerrero, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers (J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter)
“I've never seen, watched film of, or spoken to a scout about Alexander Guerrero. But, in the 10th and final round, I'll trust the Dodgers' expert scouts and draft my fourth major leaguer. Maybe Guerrero is a waste of my pick and the Dodgers' money, but at this point in the draft, Guerrero's immediate impact and upside is low risk.”
10.136) Jose Ramirez, RHP, New York Yankees (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“Had a lot of names I wanted to take with this last pick, but I'm going against the personal-cheeseball route and taking the guy who I think is the best value on the board. Ramirez has the stuff to compete with some of the more exciting teenage arms out there, but is likely to contribute at the major league level in 2014. Of course breaking into a recurring role on the Yankees as a prospect is no easy task, but when his biggest competition may be David Phelps, that is a less daunting task.”
10.137) Jace Peterson, SS, San Diego Padres (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“It is generally wise to be suspicious of players with gaudy numbers in the California League, but in Peterson's case I think an exception should be made. His athleticism is well regarded, so the tools are there to go with the performance. He hit .303/.382/.454 with 42 steals, he makes contact and posted a very intriguing 54/58 BB/K ratio in 496 plate appearances. I was thinking about an outfielder here, but ultimately I like my hitting group: a future infield of Miguel Sano and Garin Cecchini at the corners with Rougned Odor and Peterson up the middle should provide a good combination of power, speed, and on-base ability.”
10.138) Luis Heredia, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“Heredia is a big kid, standing 6-foot-6 and well over 200 pounds, and he still has some work to do with his control and improving his pitches. He had a decent performance in 2013 season, despite a loss in fastball velocity. His 5.12 BB/9 indicates he still needs development time. Lucky for the Buccos, he s only 19 years old, so he has plenty of time to work on the areas he needs to improve. If he can put it all together, and get back into shape, he could shoot up prospect lists in 2014.”
10.139) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Baltimore Orioles (Chris Crawford, MLB Draft Insider)
“I thought about a few different names here, names that I shouldn't mention as I hope to acquire their services as NDFAs, but Austin Wilson was strongly considered here, and I thought long and hard about taking Amed Rosario here as well. Still, Rodriguez was the last player left from my personal top 75, and as a southpaw with four above-average pitches and above-average command, he should be a quality starter who can provide innings and miss enough bats to be a viable fantasy starting pitcher.”
10.140) Kyle Parker, OF, Colorado Rockies (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“I considered some pitchers of completely different ilks here—I still have some love for Casey Kelly in San Diego, and Luke Jackson has Ks and is close to the big leagues in Texas—but Kyle Parker was just more attractive. Not physically, although the former football player is strong, but in terms of who he is: a power prospect in the Colorado system. With league-average strikeout rates, iffy corner outfield defense and poor walk rates, it's all about the power if he makes it. And yeah, he might have been a little stiff when I saw him in Arizona, but Colorado is forgiving. I'll take a share of a power prospect there, especially if he's close to the bigs and hasn't yet proven that he'll strikeout too much.”
Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Get to Know: Shortstop... (02/05)
12 comments have been left for this article. 
Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
To everyone who participated, let me voice my appreciation. This was really fun to read.
I know there were lots of people involved, but I am curious as to the thinking behind some of the higher fantasy-upside names that didn't crack the list. From a pitching perspective, Gohara and Tirado strike me as players I would have expected to go in a 140-player ML draft. On the offensive side, I would have thought that the 30 HR upside of Mazara and Guzman would have played out.
Thanks.
I'll chime in here, because I strongly considered Tirado/Gohara/Guzman and the like with my final picks. I decided to go with post-hype guys like Bauer and Olt because I'll know what they are by year's end, and possibly sooner. They'll either be contributing in the majors and off of my MiLB roster, or their value will have sunk to the point where I'd be comfortable dropping them. If I had gone with Tirado/Gohara, I'm resigning myself to sacrificing a roster spot for the next 3-4 years.
Tirado was in the mix for me during the last three rounds, but I opted for higher floor with what I felt was undervalued ceiling in Gonzales, Jagielo, and Rosario.
Also, as commented on below, it's a deep year for MiLB talent, so I wasn't really interested in going down to the multi-year dev horizon guys if I didn't really love the profile/upside. Those names are all good names; I just thought there were generally more interesting options that didn't quite the same lotto ticket label.