January 22, 2014

Fantasy Three-Year Projections

First Basemen

by Paul Sporer

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Everyone in fantasy sports loves the look-ahead. Even in the throes of a pennant race, you can fire up a conversation about next year’s first round and it will go on for an hour. With that in mind, the BP fantasy team will be taking a long view look at every position this offseason with three-year rankings (composite value at the position over the next three seasons). We continue our way around the diamond with first basemen today! First base is the storage locker for bad defenders who can hit, especially in the NL where there is no DH. The position is almost always adding staff, but their value at the position is mitigated until they’re done qualifying elsewhere.

For example, you would be insane to use a primary-catcher first-base-eligible asset anywhere but catcher. In no circumstance are they worth more playing first base, and if you carry two such assets and put one at first base, you’re not only robbing the value of this asset, but you’re also putting yourself behind in the counting categories of first base to teams who have full-time first basemen in their lineup. At any other position (though predominantly 3B and OF), they are never more valuable at first base. You could use them there in a pinch, but just like with the catcher, you’re sapping the value of the asset.

With that in mind, understand that guys currently qualifying elsewhere were dinged a bit of first base value in the 2014 portion of equation. This ranking assumes the first basemen are used as such. The numbers someone like Carlos Santana brings to catcher are excellent, but they’re buried in the first base hierarchy.

I don’t see a great shift atop the first base rankings in the next three years.

1. Paul Goldschmidt
2. Edwin Encarnacion
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Joey Votto

I see some more body degradation for Cabrera in the future costing him some volume, not skill, but enough to cost him a few spots.

5. Prince Fielder
6. Freddie Freeman
7. Adrian Gonzalez
8. Eric Hosmer

Fielder flourishes in Texas with the best stability profile in the game, having missed one game in five seasons. Gonzalez has an MVP-level season coming somewhere in the next three, while the other two will be steady and reliable. Hosmer’s steals close the gap on the power, but I’m not sure the power takes over anytime soon, if at all.

9. Chris Davis
10. Mark Trumbo
11. Albert Pujols
12. Jonathan Singleton
13. Wilin Rosario

Davis and Trumbo have enough power to overcome their deficiencies more often than not. By the way, those two names are a lot closer than you might think at first blush. They are basically separated by BABIP. Had Davis ended up with Trumbo’s BABIP, he’d have hit .245 last year. Like Gonzalez, I think Pujols has an MVP-level season in him in one of these next three years, but I think the other two for Pujols will be a cut below Gonzalez on the whole. Singleton likely won’t offer a ton this year, but the latter two of this trio could be great. By year three, Rosario and Santana won’t be catcher-eligible.

14. Allen Craig
15. Jose Abreu
16. Carlos Santana
17. Brandon Belt
18. Chris Carter
19. Logan Morrison
20. Anthony Rizzo
21. Brandon Moss
22. Mike Napoli
23. Matt Adams
24. Kendrys Morales

Craig’s talent isn’t in question, but his health most definitely is, especially as he pushes toward 30. Belt’s power is going to be stifled by that ballpark, putting him in the peak-James Loney range, which is fine but best deployed in a corner-infield slot. Carter is sold on the Adam Dunn trajectory, which has value, but 35-100 can only cover for the batting average to a certain point. Rizzo is my “bust” of the young first-base wave that is coming. Napoli has an injury-(severely)-shortened season within the trio, dinging his value.

25. Joe Mauer
26. Mark Teixeira
27. Justin Smoak
28. Nick Swisher
29. C.J. Cron
30. Dan Vogelbach

Mauer simply hasn’t shown the power for the position. And his health profile isn’t guaranteed to improve just because he is done catching. Pegging Cron and Vogelbach’s composite value for the three seasons is tough since it is hard to seeing them doing much at all in 2014.

• Anyone miss the list that you’re expecting to be firmly in it?
• Anyone you vehemently disagree with?
• Anyone you have any general questions about?

Let me know in the comments!

Paul Sporer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @sporer
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