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November 4, 2013 Prospects Will Break Your HeartHouston Astros Top 10 Prospects
Prospect rankings primer The Top Ten
What Happened in 2013: Correa emerged as a potential superstar, showing four tools with impact potential, all from a premium position on the diamond. Strengths: 80-grade makeup; high-end tool projections with present skills; advanced approach to the game; can make quick adjustments; plus potential hit; power could be bigger than projected; above-average glove; well-above-average arm; actions and instincts can keep him at shortstop. Weaknesses: Body could outgrow shortstop; run is average at best; range at shortstop dependent on instincts/first step; swing can get long at times; can swing through velocity in the zone; power potential is a big debate (could be 5, could be 7). Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star player Realistic Role: 6; first-division player Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; can make a case for low risk based on makeup and present skills; very high floor. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: One of the top fantasy prospects in the game, Correa is a potential perennial first-round talent, especially if he does stick at shortstop long term. Think Troy Tulowitzki without the constant injury risk, from a statistical perspective. Even if he does move to the hot corner, he can still be a top performer from that position as well. The Year Ahead: After a year of steady development at one level, Correa looks ready to take another big step forward in 2014, with a very good chance of playing in Double-A early and perhaps even reaching the majors by the end of the season. It’s aggressive and perhaps unnecessary, but Correa is already the best shortstop in the organization, and despite being 19 years old, he could hold his own at the higher levels because of the elite makeup. Major league ETA: Late 2014
What Happened in 2013: Springer exploded in 2013, ripping 37 bombs over two stops in the high minors, and positioning himself as the Astros’ center fielder of the future. Strengths: Lively power; should achieve at least solid-avg to plus game power; multi-dimensional player; brings plus run to offense/defense; glove in center should end up a 6; arm is weapon. Weaknesses: Swing-and-miss concerns; approach can get loose; two-strike approach can lack adjustment; tendency to miss in the zone; hit tool might play below-average; could limit some of the power potential. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player Realistic Role: High 5; above-average Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; ready for major leagues Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Potential fantasy stud, even if he ends up as a .250 hitter. Springer is one of the few prospects in baseball with 30/30 upside, although he’s more likely to reach the plateau on the steals side. There’s certainly concern in points league with the strikeout rate, but don’t make too much of an adjustment for it. The Year Ahead: Springer is ready for Houston, but some sources aren’t sold that his hit tool/approach will be conducive for sustainable success at the highest level, at least not right away. Springer is a more electric version of Chris Young, with similar issues with the hit tool that could limit the overall utility of the power. The defensive profile and speed will give his bat a very long leash, but if he doesn’t learn to make adjustments at the plate, especially when he’s down in the count, major league arms will exploit him at will and it could lead to a very high strikeout total. Major league ETA: 2014
What Happened in 2013: After being selected 1:1 in the amateur draft, Appel made 10 starts over two levels, finishing the season with an impressive run in the Midwest League. Strengths: Clean delivery; fastball works 92-96; can touch higher; thrown with good angle; can offer two-seamer look with good arm-side movement; slider is a weapon pitch; can flash plus-plus potential in the mid-80s; good tilt and dive; bat-misser when it’s on; changeup works solid-avg to plus; low 80s with tumble; good command projection. Weaknesses: Fastball can lack deception; seems to find barrels; both slider and changeup flash plus (or better) but can play lower; struggles to bring every pitch to the table in the same game; aggressiveness in the zone needs work; can pitch with passivity (a few sources questioned his fortitude on the mound). Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2 starter Realistic Role: 6; no. 2/3 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; very high floor Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: While he may not be someone you want anchoring your pitching staff, Appel is as certain of a bet as there is from the 2013 draft class to return usable fantasy value. He’s likely to offer solid production across the board, with more of a focus on ratios than strikeouts. The Year Ahead: Appel is basically major-league ready, but I assume he starts in Double-A before finding his way to Houston by the summer. As far as pitching prospects go, Appel is probably the safest bet in the minors to develop into a quality mid-rotation arm, with the ceiling offering a little more to dream on. That’s a very safe and comforting reality. However, the knock on Appel (from some) is that the ceiling in question isn’t that of a true no. 1 starter, a projection usually associated with a player drafted first overall. Major league ETA: 2014
What Happened in 2013: After a slow and low developmental start to his career, which included 53 starts at the Low-A level, Foltynewicz’s elite velocity finally pushed him up the ladder, as he finished the season at Double-A and put himself in contention for a major-league role at some point in 2014. Strengths: Huge fastball; works in the upper 90s and can touch over 100; big, strong, durable frame; could horse innings; shows multiple breaking ball looks; both can flash; intimidation factor. Weaknesses: Command is below average; fastball can work up and lose effectiveness; lacks a true wipeout breaking ball; changeup is below average; gets too firm and lacks movement. Overall Future Potential: 6; no 2/3 starter Realistic Role: High 5; late-innings reliever (closer role) Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; he can throw 102 mph, but can be one-dimensional. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The chasm of starting pitching at the major-league level for Houston works in his favor, as Foltynewicz should be given every opportunity to prove himself as a starter. If he makes it, it’s a high strikeout profile with some give back in WHIP. If he doesn’t, there’s still plenty of opportunity for him to redeem himself by racking up saves. The Year Ahead: Foltynewicz has the body and the fastball to project high up in a major-league rotation, but the secondary arsenal will flash only above-average potential and the command profile is below average with only an average projection. If everything clicks, he’s a rotation beast who can log innings and pitch off an elite fastball, but the likely role will come in relief, where the shortcomings in the arsenal can be somewhat muted. Major league ETA: 2014
What Happened in 2013: Singleton was popped for a drug of abuse, and when he arrived back on the field after 50 games off his body wore the effects of the layoff, as the young first baseman could best be defined as “thick.” Strengths: Big raw power; 7 raw; game power should play to plus; generates excellent bat speed; hands are impressive; big torque in the swing, but shows bat control; has a plan at the plate; knows balls/strikes. Weaknesses: Hit tool receives mixed reviews; struggles against arm-side pitching; power utility will be limited by contact ability; body got sloppy in layoff; speaks to iffy makeup; limited to first base defensively; below-average arm; doesn’t move well. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player Realistic Role: 5; second-division player Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; drug suspension; makeup concerns Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Despite the step back in 2013, Singleton still maintains the same fantasy upside he did prior to the suspension—it’s the risk that has changed. But with power down across the game--only seven first basemen hit 25 homers in 2013--he certainly is still worth investing in. Singleton should have no issue working himself into a run-producing spot in the Astros’ lineup. The Year Ahead: Singleton was knocking on the door of the majors before he was suspended for marijuana and ate himself into a new physique. If he wants it, the opportunity is waiting for him at the highest level, but the 22-year-old has to dedicate himself to the cause. The power potential is there for a middle-of-the-order presence, but the likely role is a second-division player who flashes his potential but never quite lives up to the hype. Major league ETA: 2014
What Happened in 2013: Making his full-season debut, Velasquez erased all doubts about his post-Tommy John arm, pitching his way to the California League on the back of the potent fastball/changeup combo. Strengths: Really crisp fastball; easy plus velocity in the 92-95 range; routinely works higher; holds velocity; clean arm action; changeup is a plus pitch at present; some sources project it higher; excellent arm-speed deception; major-league-quality pitch; good overall feel for craft; good command profile. Weaknesses: Breaking ball not very impressive; several reports had it below average at present and didn’t project it over fringe-average; success in lower minors on the back of fastball location and velocity in combination with big boy changeup; needs full-grade breaking ball improvement. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter Realistic Role: 5; no. 4 starter Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate; Tommy John surgery in September 2010 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: High probability of sticking in a starting role, but whether he’s a back-end fantasy starter or no. 2/3 type almost all depends on where the curveball ends up. Most likely to be strong in WHIP and good everywhere else, but not elite. Lower fantasy upside than Appel/Foltynewicz, but strong profile, especially in deeper leagues. The Year Ahead: The development of the breaking ball is key for Velasquez’s long-term success, although his fastball/changeup combo is strong enough to carry him to the majors, even with a fringe curveball. Depending on the source, projections on the present offering range from below average to average, with one source suggesting it could develop into a plus pitch next season. If that’s the case, Velasquez’s placement on this list could look foolish at this time next year. Major league ETA: 2015
What Happened in 2013: The former supplemental first-round pick made his full-season debut, logging 19 starts and missing more than a bat an inning. Strengths: Plus-plus arm strength; easy cheese; works comfortably in the low-mid-90s; can go get more; power breaking ball is close to a plus pitch at present; projects higher; big-league-quality bat misser; competitor on the mound; attacks hitters. Weaknesses: Delivery isn’t super easy or clean; tendency to lose some of the stuff later in games; changeup is below average; several sources don’t think it plays above fringe-average at maturity; command is spotty; lacks plus projection. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter Realistic Role: High 5; late-innings reliever (setup) Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate; has the FB/CB to reach realistic role Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: If McCullers does make it as a starter, the strikeouts will leave fantasy owners happy (as he could get up to one per inning), but his ratios could be a drag on his value. If not, he should be in the mix for saves down the road. The Year Ahead: After a strong full-season campaign last year, McCullers could reach Double-A at some point in 2014, perhaps faster than expected given some of the developmental hurdles associated with the California League. The fastball/curve combo is intense, but the rotation package won’t come together without improved command of the arsenal and a better changeup. The cambio can take time and he’s still early in the process, so there is no need to move him into the ‘pen right now. But his delivery is what scouts point to when it comes to the bullpen projection, not the inability to develop a playable changeup. Major league ETA: 2015
What Happened in 2013: A 20-year-old for most of the season, Santana held his own at the Double-A level, hitting 50 extra-base hits in 112 games, including 25 bombs. Strengths: Big boy raw power; can launch tape-measure shots; leveraged swing that can produce very loud contact, especially when he can get extended on balls out over the plate; can handle right field; easy plus arm; good athlete for his size. Weaknesses: Hit tool is below average; lacks much projection; tremendous strength, but swing can get heavy and pitchers can work him inside; lots of swing-and-miss; hit tool could limit power output. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player Realistic Role: Low 5; second-division player Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; power is legit Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: A 30-homer hitter these days is an endangered species of sorts, regardless of batting average risk or positional eligibility. Due to the issues with his hit tool, he’s most valuable in OBP leagues and carries some strikeout drag in points formats. The Year Ahead: Santana has a lot of supporters in the scouting community, and those who really believe in him see a Nelson Cruz type; big raw, suspect hit tool, awkward at times in his routes but a good athlete for the size, with a very good arm. Santana has a tendency to expand his zone and help pitchers out in counts, so he will need to continue to refine and learn to stay back on off-speed offerings if he wants to let the full potential of his power out. He could reach the majors in 2014, although a healthy dose of Triple-A off-speed stuff could benefit the 21-year-old’s development at the plate. Major league ETA: Late 2014
What Happened in 2013: It was a tale of two seasons, as Ruiz struggled mightily in the first half before finding his stroke in the second, slugging a robust .520 with 34 extra-base hits. Strengths: Sweet stroke from the left side; clean and quick to the ball; generates good bat speed; shows plus power potential; good approach at the plate; will work counts; shows recognition skills; strong arm at third. Weaknesses: Glove at third is below average; might not get to average; lacks range; below-average run; mixed reviews on the hit tool; several sources really like it; others not sold it’s a plus tool (more average at best). Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division third baseman Realistic Role: 5; second-division first baseman Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; injury history: blood clots Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: In shallower dynasty leagues, Ruiz is exactly the kind of player you want to take a chance on toward the end of your minor-league roster. The upside is there for a long-term solution at a corner in any league, but if he doesn’t work out from either a health or developmental standpoint, there’s always another train coming. The Year Ahead: The second half of Ruiz’s season showed his offensive potential, and a move to the friendly confines of the California League could help inflate his numbers and elevate his prospect stock. The glove needs work, and some aren’t sold he sticks at the position long term. But if the bat is legit--meaning he shows the ability to hit for both average and power--his defensive home won’t be a big issue. Major league ETA: Late 2015
What Happened in 2013: Feliz shoved in the New York-Penn League, using his lively mid-90s fastball to miss 78 bats in 69 short-season innings. Strengths: Plus-plus arm strength; fastball works in the 94-96 range, touching 98 with big wiggle; slider shows plus potential; big, strong frame; has some feel for craft; strike thrower. Weaknesses: Control ahead of command; changeup is below average at present; sources not high on changeup projection; slider flashes but can get loose and slurvy. Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter Realistic Role: 5; late-innings reliever (setup) Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; great stuff but short-season resume Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Pitching prospects who haven’t yet reached full-season ball are always a risky proposition, but when you bet, bet on velocity. Right now, Feliz doesn’t project as a huge strikeout guy if he sticks in the rotation, but there’s plenty of time for that to change as he develops. The Year Ahead: Feliz is the type of arm who will need to prove he is a starter all the way up the chain, mostly because of the fastball-first arsenal that features an okay slider and an immature changeup. Feliz shows a lot of feel for pitching, and the delivery is pretty easy given the fact that his fastball can touch 98 mph, so it’s not a given that he ends up in the bullpen. But its also easy to dream of that explosive fastball in short bursts, and if you add an improved slider to the mix, that’s an impact arm at the major-league level. Major league ETA: 2016 Notable Omission (Delino DeShields Jr.): DeShields will likely be a featured prospect on most Astros-specific lists, and I’ve even seen his name kicked around as a top 100 prospect in the minors. The reports I’ve received throughout the season haven’t painted the best picture of the player, a direct contrast to the positive statistical output that will no doubt influence his placement on most lists. The biggest complaint from scouts has to do with makeup, or more specifically, visible effort and maturity displayed on the field. DeShields might be a plus-plus runner, but his low-energy approach to the game can rub some the wrong way, and almost every single source I spoke to suggested he would fall short of his ceiling. Prospects on the Rise: 1.OF Teoscar Hernandez: On the list for the second straight season, the young outfielder had a strong case for inclusion in the top 10, but fell short because of the strength of the system. With a good glove at a premium spot on the diamond (center), good feel for hitting, and an infectious approach to the game, Hernandez will likely emerge as a name prospect in 2014. 2.LHP Reymin Guduan: I’m a sucker for southpaw velocity, and Guduan stands in elite company when it comes to arm strength from the left side. A relatively unknown prospect-–he has only 2 1/3 innings above the complex level—the 21-year-old Dominican can pump upper-90s heat like it’s a common outcome. Relief prospects don’t offer much, especially when they will be 22 coming into the season with a very limited professional record at the full-season level. But 6’4’’ lefties who can touch 100 mph on the radar gun are always worth keeping a very close eye on. 3.RHP Andrew Thurman: The 40th overall pick in the 2013 draft, UC Irvine’s Friday starter is a solid and safe prospect, one who will likely progress quickly in the system and land in the top 10 next season. The projection isn’t going to change the fortunes of the franchise, but with a solid-average fastball, two passable breaking balls, a good changeup, and sharp command, Thurman could eventually settle in as a no. 4 starter at the major league level. Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute in the majors in 2014) 1. RHP Nick Tropeano: With a solid fastball/changeup combo, the former fifth-round pick can miss bats and force weak contact. He’s a backend type at the highest level, but he has the delivery, the body, and the arsenal to contribute to a major-league rotation in 2014. 2. C Max Stassi: Stassi’s bat really took off in the Texas League, producing 38 extra-base hits in 76 games. The league and home environment certainly played a role in the offensive explosion, but don’t overlook the fact that Stassi was finally healthy, as nagging injuries have slowed the former fourth-round pick’s rise to the majors. With good receiving skills and some punch in his stick, Stassi could eventually carve out a career as a major-league regular. 3. OF Leo Heras: The Astros jumped into the Mexican League market this summer and snatched one of the league’s best hitters, a 5’9’’ outfielder from the Diablos Rojos of Mexico City. The 23-year-old isn’t a physical specimen, but with a good approach, bat speed and a balanced stroke from the left side, Heras has the skill set to hit at the highest level. He should get a look at some point in 2014. Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/88 or later)
Twelve months further into the rebuild and the Astros have continued to grow their young depth, both at the minor-league and major-league levels. The 2013 draft saw Stanford ace Mark Appel, a Houston-area product, added to list of potential impact talents on the farm. While Appel is a safe bet to stick as a starter, the other prospects on the U25 list include three power arms​-–Foltynewicz, Velasquez, and McCullers-–who could ultimately take the mound in the first or in the late innings, depending on how their developmental processes continues to unfold. At the major-league level, Jarred Cosart continues to boast big velocity, but did little in his first 10 major-league starts to alleviate concerns over his below-average command and inconsistent secondary execution. Those shortcomings likely limit his ceiling as a starter to a solid no. 3, and ultimately the best fit could be as a power late-inning arm. Brad Peacock, Jordan Lyles, and Brett Oberholtzer could each provide value in the back of a rotation, with Peacock possessing the best raw stuff of the three, but a penchant for too often working flat and up. On the positional side, Correa and Springer are true potential impact talents with offensive upside and a chance to stick up the middle. Singleton will look to reestablish his pre-suspension stock (and physique) with an eye toward a first-division ceiling. Santana carries thunder in his stick, with in-game realization at the upper levels the largest hurdle to overcome. The remainder of the current crop is capable but underwhelming. Matt Dominguez launched 21 bombs out of an everyday gig, but his inability to produce consistent hard contact, or get on base above a .300 clip, cuts into the value of that power production. Max Stassi is an interesting name to watch as a strong defender behind the dish with the potential for double-digit home runs when he arrives. Jonathan Villar flashes some aptitude in the field but has yet to show the ability to tighten his defensive game to the point he should be depended upon regularly at the six spot, particularly with a limited offensive profile. Without further growth he could be limited to a utility/pinch-runner role down the line. J.D. Martinez, L.J. Hoes, and Robbie Grossman each project as potential second-division starter/fourth outfielder types, with Hoes possessing the best hit tool of the three but light power for a corner. –Nick J. Faleris A Parting Thought: The system is deep—and thanks to another 1:1 pick on the way and more amateur bonus money to spend than any other team, the quality of talent in the system is only going to improve and push the Astros toward the top of all farm systems in the game.
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Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @ProfessorParks
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I was surprised that you never mentioned Wojciechowski.
harry
He could have been a factor on the farm, but he wasn't in the discussion for the top ten.
ME TOO