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October 1, 2013
Advance Scouting Series
Joey Votto
by Nick J. Faleris
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Advance Scouting Report
Filed by: Nick J. Faleris
Player Name: Joey Votto
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Context: 12 Games; 9/9/13 to 9/22/13
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PA
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AB
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H
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1st P
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K
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BB
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TB
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Hard
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AVE
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OBP
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SLG
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OPS
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TOTALS
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55
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43
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16
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18
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9
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13
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24
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15
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.372
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.491
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.558
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1.049
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Sample vs. Season:
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Average/on-base/slugging up from season lines; power showing to all fields; lots of hard contact; slugging on par with historical highs, with 2013 overall as a down year compared to past performance.
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SCOUTING BREAKDOWN
Physical/Health:
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No known injuries at present; strong, durable build; listed 6’2”, 220 pounds; strong core/trunk helps to create big leverage in swing; solid overall athleticism; moving well in field and on bases.
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Hit Tool
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Supremely comfortable in the box; has no fear hitting deep and behind in the count; balanced; utilizes compact swing with bat speed to handle velo, natural loft, and uncanny ability to center ball on barrel; bat stays in the zone a long time; swing path/pitch plane overlap allows for hard contact from pole to pole; can drive the gaps and produce loud line-drive contact across hit zone; excellent plate coverage and ability to square up pitches across the quadrants; will run behind in counts, leading to some swing-and-miss, but more than makes up for it with penchant for hard contact and on-base ability; top shelf understanding of strike zone; ability to formulate and implement game plan from at-bat to at-bat and across series; highest level hit tool with very limited chinks in armor. -- Grade: High 7
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vs. LHP
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vs. RHP
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Slightly less aggressive against same-side pitching, swinging at 17 percent first pitches as opposed to 37 percent of first pitches against RHP in sample; very comfortable taking the ball the other way with short swing path working middle-out; swung and missed at just two pitches (one FB one SL) in 12 PA vs. same-side pitching totaling 58 offerings.
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Sees ball very well out of the hand of opposite-side arms; very comfortable going deep in counts and working for pitch to drive; likewise, comfortable attacking early; will open up swing a little more against RHP, looking to drive; unique talent dangerous in any count and game situation.
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Notable At-bats
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Date
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Description
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9/14/13
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Five plate appearances resulting in four hard contact balls in play and one base on balls; first at-bat vs. Hellweg (RHP): worked ahead 3-1 before deep sac fly to center field; second at-bat vs. Hellweg (RHP): drove first pitch changeup for deep F8; third at-bat vs. Hellweg (RHP): first pitch CB low and away driven oppo for line drive single to left/center gap; first at-bat vs. Blazek (RHP): worked ahead 3-1 and turned on 95 mph FB up and in for deep home run down right field line (off top of foul pole); first at-bat vs. Gonzalez (LHP): worked seven-pitch walk with six offerings on outer corner – strong same-side pitch ID.
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9/15/13
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First at-bat vs. Gallardo (RHP): fell behind 1-2 and extended at-bat to nine pitches, ultimately taking FB (91) low-and-away and driving up the middle for single; Gallardo pounding inner and outer half effectively, but hitter was able to foul off offerings until FB left in spot to drive.
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9/20/13
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First at-bat vs. Liriano (LHP): first pitch FB (93) ball up and in; second pitch, FB (94) ball up and in; third pitch, SL (88) up and in for called strike; fourth pitch, SL (89) down and out, fouled; fifth pitch, SL (90) down and out, rolled over for 3 unassisted; worked ahead in count, looking FB, Liriano attacked with SL/CT in FB counts to make squared contact more difficult.
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Power
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Good raw power to all fields; ability to square ball across quadrants, can turn on offerings inside or let travel and drive opposite field; comfortable hitting deep in count and does not shorten up when behind; capable of driving mistakes and pitchers’ pitches; significant threat. – Grade: 6
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vs. LHP
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vs. RHP
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Slightly shorter cut against same-side arm limits leverage some; still easy loud contact, but slightly less likely to produce over-the-fence pop.
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Highly aggressive with ability to drive ball to all parts of the park; can attack early in count or wear down arm through at-bat until hitter finds mistake or driveable offering; combination top tier hit tool and plus power create dangerous bat in all scenarios.
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Notable At-bats
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Date
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Description
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9/14/13
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First at-bat vs. Blazek (RHP): first pitch, FB (90) outside for ball; second pitch, FB (95) up and in for swinging strike; third pitch, FB (94) up and in for ball; fourth pitch, FB (92) up and out for ball; fifth, pitch FB (95) up and in, turned on for deep home run off right field foul pole; good velo, hitter worked ahead and had no issue turning on elevated heat deep in count.
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9/20/13
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First at-bat vs. Farnsworth (RHP): took two outside offerings for balls; third pitch two-seam FB (92) down and out, let travel and drove oppo over left field wall for go-ahead HR; no issue lifting heavy offering down and deep; highest level showing of barrel control, bat speed, and strength.
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Speed/ Baserunning
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No clockable home-to-first times; generally observed as below-average home-to-first runner; generally makes solid decisions on bases, but not a threat to test outfielders; not a threat to steal.
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Conclusions and Means of Attack
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Most dangerous bat in lineup; no clear point of attack; only slight weakness is some trouble with in/out sequencing when paired with change in speeds; working ahead, best hope is to get deep in count and follow hard stuff in with soft stuff down and away, and vice versa; will work arms to find pitches to drive, but capable of hitting well executed pitches, too; best to pitch around in important situations, and take chances with Bruce/Ludwick; will work a walk, but just as content to foul off close pitches to seek out pitches to drive; cannot rely on attacking strike zone early because hitter is successful in early-count aggression, as well; tread lightly from start to finish.
Late innings utilize same-side arms if available to limit home run risk (Reds will at times stack Votto/Bruce in the lineup, so mark late innings where they are due to come up and have lefty ready); ability to hit spots paramount; need to move ball around and change speeds; no discernable sequencing was effective in observed sampling; good luck.
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Matchup Stats at a Glance
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First Pitch Swing
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18/55; 32.7 percent
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Bunt Threat (Sac, Push, Drag)
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No threat to bunt.
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Defensive Positioning
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Straight up; hits it everywhere.
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Outfield
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Straight up; shade deep; will drive the ball pole-to-pole – occasional bloop in front of outfielder is acceptable.
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Splits
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vs. LHP
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.333/.500/.333
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vs. RHP
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.382/.535/.618
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Nick J. Faleris is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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You can contact Nick by clicking here
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"No threat to bunt" (insert Dusty Baker joke).
This series is so ambitious and richly informative. Thank you.