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October 1, 2013
Advance Scouting Series
Brandon Phillips
by Nick J. Faleris
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Advance Scouting Report
Filed by: Nick J. Faleris
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PA
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AB
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H
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1st P
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K
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BB
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TB
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Hard
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AVE
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OBP
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SLG
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OPS
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TOTALS
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55
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49
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11
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15
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9
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4
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12
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11
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.224
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.278
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.245
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.523
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Sample vs. Season:
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Average/on-base/slugging down from season lines; slumping, will give away at-bats; brutal stretch of at-bats.
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SCOUTING BREAKDOWN
Physical/Health:
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Quadriceps injured at beginning of month, lingering effects likely; slow out of box and ball not jumping off bat when squared, compared to past viewings; listed 6’0”, 200 pounds; well put together; good athleticism and strength; tender lower half limiting power at plate and mobility on bases.
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Hit Tool
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Aggressive hitter susceptible to expansion of zone below the knees; strong bat-to-ball ability; can vacillate between slashing line-drive approach and torque-driven swing geared to pull side; currently struggling heavily when behind in count; tendency to go out of zone and roll over soft stuff; quad injury may be lingering, as swing lacks lower-half explosion and squared balls are not carrying in the outfield; with step lost out of the box and limited power, overall hit tool is a grade below previous viewings. -- Grade: 4
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vs. LHP
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vs. RHP
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Aggressive early in count against LHP, with first-pitch swings in nearly half of at-bats; just one hit in 12 plate appearances against opposite-side pitching; has struggled to get barrel through on inner half, rolling over soft stuff down; just one hard struck ball vs. LHP (flyout); historically not a bad oppo-side hitter – current splits likely result of overall struggles, rather than issues unique to LHP.
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Even with struggles, shows ability to produce hard contact up the middle vs. same-side pitching, with focus on middle-out location; best early in count, with eight of 10 “hard contact” outcomes vs. RHP occurring in first two pitches of applicable at-bats; will chase soft stuff down and out of zone late in count, with likelihood of bad swings increased as at-bats extend.
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Notable At-bats
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Date
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Description
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9/14/13
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Third at-bat vs. Hellweg (RHP): down 1-2 in count, hanging curve squared but ball did not carry – ended up hard-struck ball to moderate depth CF; pitch typically driven by hitter, lacked explosion in lower half; first observation quad injury may still be limiting lower-half strength.
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9/14/13
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First at-bat vs. Figaro (RHP): chopper up the middle, hitter was slow out of the box and clocked 4.6 to first base – well below-average and atypical of hitter; continued evidence quad injury (or effects thereof) may be lingering.
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9/17/13
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Second at-bat vs. Lyles (RHP): first pitch, FB (92) middle-up for swinging strike; second pitch, FB (93) down-out, hitter let travel and squared up for line drive single to RF; brief at-bat but demonstrative of hitter’s bat-to-ball ability and feel for barrel; lots of bad at-bats during this spread of games, this at-bat was hitter in his element.
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9/17/13
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First at-bat vs. Humber (RHP): first pitch FB (91) down-out, fouled away; second pitch, FB (91) middle-in, turned on for double to left field; still able to clear inner half against average FB velo, even with lessened explosiveness in lower half.
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Power
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Power is not currently manifesting; hitter is able to barrel the ball, but struck balls lack explosion observed in past viewings; current game more tailored to gap-to-gap slashing; proposed explanation for lack of current pop is lingering tenderness in lower half from early-month quad injury; not currently a threat to hit for power, but still capable of turning on average velocity and taking the ball up the middle and oppo. – Grade: Low 4
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vs. LHP
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vs. RHP
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Non-existent power against LHP during observed period; one “hard contact” outcome even with multiple squared offerings.
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Power not currently manifesting; hitter demonstrating ability to square pitches, but saddled with “wet newspaper” production; not a power threat.
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Notable At-bats
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Date
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Description
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9/14/13
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Third at-bat vs. Hellweg (RHP): first pitch, FB (93) up-in for ball; second pitch, FB (93) down-out for strike looking; third pitch, CB (81) down-out for swinging strike, hitter expanding; fourth pitch, CB (82) middle-out, hung, squared for F8; hitter produced hard contact but ball lacked any carry once struck; in past, would have been ball hitter drives for extra bases.
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Speed/ Baserunning
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Clocked one slightly below-average time to first and one well below-average time; generally tick above-average runner; observed speed down, but reads and jumps seem intact; still threat to steal off strength of reads, jumps; likely not risk to bunt for hit.
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Conclusions and Means of Attack
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Hitter is struggling greatly to find success at the plate; ability to find the ball with barrel still present, but production limited to line-drive approach with little threat of power; plate coverage light on inner half and hitter can be enticed to chase down when behind in count; hitter is aggressive and can get impatient as at-bats extend; soft stuff down and away and hard stuff in as put-away pitches; go after hard and don’t give away bases – biggest threat is as baserunner forcing fastballs to Votto and Bruce.
Late-inning matchups, don’t let hitter dictate bullpen usage; plan for Choo/Votto/Bruce and have confidence arm can attack hitter; still dangerous line-drive bat that will spray gap to gap, no reason to give away pitches in fat of the plate; premium velocity in and quality secondaries away should be roadmap.
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Matchup Stats at a Glance
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First Pitch Swing
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15/55; 27.2 percent
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Bunt Threat (Sac, Push, Drag)
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Will show sacrifice with a runner on first and/or second base; down trend in speed out of the box makes bunt for hit less likely.
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Defensive Positioning
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Straight up.
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Outfield
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Straight up.
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Splits
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vs. LHP
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.100/.250/.100
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vs. RHP
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.256/.279/.282
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Nick J. Faleris is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Another injury issue - he left Saturday's game and sat on Sunday after fouling a ball off his shin. The Fox broadcast got a shot of a huge lump on his shin through his uniform. Between the quad and the shin, tender lower half indeed.