BP Unfiltered

2013 Hitter Uncertainty

by Colin Wyers

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As an aside to today's article on uncertainty in measuring offense, here's the top 20 in batting runs above average in 2013, plus the uncertainty in the offensive production:

NAME	BRAA	STDERR
Miguel Cabrera	66.8	6.4
Mike Trout	65.6	6.3
Chris Davis	55.4	6.2
Joey Votto	39.7	6.1
Paul Goldschmidt	37.0	6.1
Andrew McCutchen	36.6	6.0
David Ortiz	33.1	5.7
Robinson Cano	33.0	6.1
Adrian Beltre	31.9	6.2
Evan Longoria	30.9	6.0
Edwin Encarnacion	29.9	6.1
David Wright	29.2	5.6
Matt Carpenter	29.0	6.2
Yasiel Puig	26.8	4.6
Shin-Soo Choo	26.0	5.8
Kyle Seager	25.7	5.9
Jayson Werth	25.6	5.1
Josh Donaldson	24.9	5.8
Carlos Santana	24.8	5.6
Buster Posey	24.8	5.7

That gives us an estimate of a 55% probability that Cabrera has been a better hitter (relative to average) than Trout.

Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cwyers
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