August 9, 2013

Fantasy Mailbag

Pulling the Trigger

by BP Fantasy Staff

Question: 15-team mixed 'sim' points league. Can freeze seven..I likely will freeze Wainwright, Latos, Minor, Trout, and McCutchen.

That leaves the following possibilities for my two remaining slots: Prince Fielder, Kendrick, Donaldson, Lucroy, Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales, Morse. Among my remaining pitchers, I could freeze Anibal Sanchez or G. Holland.

I can't believe Fielder's not a lock to be frozen, but his stats this season tell another story.

Answer: I think Fielder is a no-brainer, despite the numbers this season. And I'd be tempted to go with Kendrick as the seventh guy in a 15-teamer, assuming his injury is not major. It's likely either him or Sanchez there, but you do already have three pitchers.

Question: How much will I regret it in keeper next year if I trade Braun for Ellsbury? I probably can only finish second this year but don't want to give up.

Answer: It won’t be a major regret at all. Ellsbury is the safer play, as we have no idea what Braun is going to be like after the time away from the game and all of the added pressure from fans.

Question: This trade could win me the title so I'm reaching out for advice.

League settings: $300 auction/dynasty/Points League/H2H. It's a fairly normal points league scoring system (high OPS and SB good, Ks bad for hitters; innings, Ks, quality starts, wins good, and hits, BB, ER bad for pitchers)

• I trade: Kipnis $12, Hosmer $11, Taveras $6, and one of the following: Jordan Zimmermann $14 or Homer Bailey $1
• I receive: Price $21, Beltre $26, Kinsler $32, Greinke $32, Yadier, $13, Andrus $18

Lineup before trade:

• C: Wieters
• 1B: Hosmer
• 2B: Kipnis
• 3B: Ryan Zimmerman
• SS: Hanley
• OF: Bautista, Choo, Heyward
• Util: A-Gon
• Bench: Aybar, Taveras, Utley, Gordon, Butler
• Pitching: Scherzer, Zimmermann, Bailey, Minor, Samardzjia, Doubront, E. Jackson

After trade:

• C: Wieters (Molina when back from DL)
• 1B A-Gon
• 2B Kinsler
• 3B Beltre
• SS Andrus
• OF: Bautista, Choo, heyward
• Util: Butler
• Bench Utley, Gordon, Aybar, Zimmerman, Hanley (DL?)
• Pitching: Price, Scherzer, Minor, Greinke, Samardzjia, Bailey or Zimmermann, Doubront, E. Jackson

1. Do I make the trade? Does it make my team better?
2. If yes, which pitcher (JZimm or Bailey) do I trade away?
3. Should I worry about trading for the Rangers players now that Cruz is suspended?

Answer: I do not make this deal. I'd rather keep who you have as it is less risky for you. Price has been awesome, but regression is on its way in some form and you're assuming other risks as well.

Question: 10-team league, five keepers. six playoff teams. I'm currently in seventh with four weeks to play. Looking at trading Headley/Adrian Gonzalez for Austin Jackson/Josh Donaldson/Iwakuma.

I'm not planning on keeping A-Gon, so it's not a huge loss, and Headley has been a dud for me this year. Am I getting enough back on offense to make the deal? Need most help in R/RBI, so I think I should pull the trigger.

Answer: The deal seems fair to me. Gonzalez is a loss versus Jackson, but Iwakuma should be an upgrade on whoever your worst pitcher is.

Question: Keeper trade general theory question. Here is my roster for my 5x5 roto league with price to keep for next year. Five keepers allowed.

• C $1 Evan Gattis/$1 Jason Castro
• 1B $10 Edwin Encarnacion
• 2B $33 Robinson Cano
• 3B $2 Kyle Seager
• SS $34 Hanley Ramirez
• MI $2 Jean Segura
• CI $7 Todd Frazier/$7 Nick Swisher
• OF $25 Shin-Soo Choo
• OF $23 Desmond Jennings
• OF $1 Domonic Brown
• OF $16 Yoenis Cespedes
• OF $1 Leonys Martin/$27 BJ Upton
• UT $1 Juan Francisco/$1 Jonathan Villar
• P $29 Justin Verlander
• P $19 Max Scherzer
• P $10 Chris Sale
• P $1 Chris Archer
• P $1 Corey Kluber
• P $8 Greg Holland
• P $6 Betancourt/$1 Brothers
• P $1 Alex Torres

My current points are R 12, HR 12, RBI 8, SB 12, AVG 4, W 10, SV 4.5, K 8.5, ERA 9, WHIP 12, for a total of 92 points, second place, 11.5 points behind first and 16.5 points ahead of third. That said, we have an IP cap and once those ahead of pace hit the limit, I should end up with a 12 in Ks, so I have a 'natural' 95.5 right now.

With a $2 Segura and $1 D. Brown to sell, I started shopping them to make a run at first. I need at least 2 closers, maybe 3, to get 5 more points out of SVs. If I can pick up some RBI's, I might get 2 points there. If I can improve in AVG, I might be able to pick up 2-3 points there, so it's possible, but I can't lose any SBs (would have to replace Segura's), Rs or WHIP, which are all extremely close categories.

I am a flags-fly-forever guy all the way, but there is this moral outrage about total dumps in our league, and I need a huge haul to make a real run. I can't yet find a deal where the math adds up to me getting to 103.5. Maybe closer to the deadline (late Aug) people will get more desperate, but then that leaves me only about five weeks to catch up.

So I'm actually thinking about dumping myself. I can dump to first place and guarantee him the trophy, or the fourth place guy actually goes for it every time no matter what (second and third also pay, but I don't care about anything but first).

So question 1: should I persist in trying to sell my keepers and make a run, or is it too big a deficit? Question 2: if I dump, first-place team has an $18 Jason Kipnis and a $5 Shelby Miller. Fourth-place team has an $11 Wil Myers, $1 Starling Marte, and $7 Matt Harvey. How would you rank the targets relative to my current potential keepers?

Otherwise I sit tight, coast to second, and go into the offseason with a $10 E5, $1 Brown, $2 Segura, $33 Cano and either the $16 Cespedes, $2 Seager or $10 Sale.

Answer: If it were me, I would go for it. It's a big gap, but I think you have a shot. It shouldn't matter what the league thinks if the trade is legal. As far as not being in a good position next year, in a five-max-keeerp league you should be able to make up ground in the auction far more easily.

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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