Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner

Week 20

by Paul Sporer

Printer-friendly

Contact Author

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Welcome to the Weekly Pitching Planner. Each week I will cover the pitchers are who slated to make two starts and help you decide who you should start and who you should sit. Sometimes guys will be in the “consider” where they might have one good start, but a second tough one and then your league settings might determine whether or not you should go forward with him. The pitchers will be split by league then by categories:

Auto-Starts – These are your surefire fantasy aces. You paid a handsome sum for them either with an early draft pick or high dollar auction bid so you’re starting them anywhere, anytime. Guys can emerge onto or fall off of this list as the season evolves. There won’t be many – if any – notes associated with these groupings each week. We are starting them automatically so why do I need to expound on how awesome they are and will be in the coming week?

Starts – These are the guys I’m recommending you put into your lineup this week. Some will be obvious, but not quite auto-start excellent while others will be waiver wire fodder who find themselves with a pair of favorable outings that you can take advantage of in your league. There will be accompanying notes supporting the decisions.

Considers – As mentioned earlier, these guys will be on the fence and your league settings and position in the standings will really be a decider here. If the Minnesota Twins fifth starter is slated to face the Astros at home followed by an interleague trip to San Diego, he will appear on this list because the matchups are great though he isn’t and if you are in a 10-team mixed league you probably don’t need to take the risk, but a 10-team AL-only leaguer might see it as a nice opportunity to log some quality innings from a freely available resource.

Sits – These are the guys I’m getting away from this week. They will range in talent from solid to poor. Rarely will you see a really good pitcher here unless he gets an “at COL, at TOR” slate. Speaking of the fateful “at COL”, any mediocre talent with a trip to Coors Field will be a sit until further notice. If they turn the humidor back on, I’ll reconsider, but after last year there is just no reason to throw any non-stud in that park.

And with that, here is our week 19 slate…

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AUTO-START: Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, Chris Sale, Hiroki Kuroda, Doug Fister, and Bartolo Colon

START

Danny Salazar	at MIN, at OAK
Garrett Richards	at NYY, HOU
Miguel Gonzalez	at ARI, COL
Hector Santiago	DET, at MIN
Bruce Chen	MIA, at DET
Samuel Deduno	CLE, CWS
Brett Oberholtzer	TEX, at LAA

Notes:

Interesting set of starts here in the AL as they are clearly about two tiers below the Auto-Starts. We don’t have any of the Felix Doubront or C.J. Wilson types this time around. Salazar only has two starts in his MLB career, but he’s been incredibly impressive against a pair of strong offenses (TOR and DET). He gets his first two-start week in a pair of friendly environments.
Richards has brought some starting pitching help for the Halos, but it’s a little too late for them. That doesn’t mean he can’t help your team, though. He gets the two worst teams in OPS against righties and both are bottom four in the entire league.
Santiago gets the Tigers for the third time in five outings, but he hasn’t been too bad. The defense failed him in the first and he was great in the second, though he took losses in both. He sputtered a bit in his latest against the Yanks, but I still like him here even with another outing against the Tigers.
Chen has been pitching really well since returning to the rotation on July 12^th with four straight six-inning outings during which he’s allowed two or fewer in all of them. Perhaps most impressive are his 24 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 K:BB ratio. As with Santiago, the Detroit outing is a bit scary, but his recent performance and a bout against Miami is enough to endorse the start.

CONSIDER

CC Sabathia	LAA, at BOS
Chris Archer	SEA, TOR
Tommy Hanson	at NYY, HOU

Notes:

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. You can’t judge Sabathia purely on name value anymore.
Archer falls down here because of the forearm tightness that pulled him from his last start after just 1 2/3 innings.
Hanson is essentially an “auto-sit,” but these two starts are just enough to consider him if you’re desperate.

SIT

Ryan Dempster	at TOR, NYY
Josh Johnson	OAK, at TB
Dan Straily	at TOR, CLE
Wade Davis	MIA, at DET
Andrew Albers	CLE, CWS
J.A. Happ	BOS, at TB
Aaron Harang	at TB, at TEX

Notes:

Dempster, Johnson, and Straily are names you might feel like you’d want to start, but they’ve all just been brutal lately and only Dempster’s outing with the Yankees sets up as favorable among the six.
Albers had a solid MLB debut against the Royals, but he’s not some up-and-coming prospect. The 27-year-old was having a great season at Triple-A, too, but I need to see more before trusting him. The Indians crush lefties, so even with the White Sox waiting at the end of the week, it might all be damage control from a rough first outing.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

AUTO-START: Mat Latos, Madison Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Cole Hamels, Julio Teheran, and Homer Bailey

START

Shelby Miller	PIT, at CHC
Wade Miley	BAL, at PIT
Ricky Nolasco	NYM, at PHI
Travis Wood	CIN, STL
Jenrry Mejia	at LAD, at SD
Jhoulys Chacin	SD, at BAL
Tom Koehler	at KC, SF

Notes:

Miller is tentative here after taking a shot off the elbow just one batter into his latest outing on Wednesday night. But if he does end up making the starts, he has a great chance to finally snap his streak of 11 outings where he has failed to go more than six innings. June 1 was the last time he eclipsed that mark.
After a big July, the Mets have gone cold offensively, giving Nolasco two great matchups here. He’s been solid this year—far from special, but reliable.
Mejia’s been great in his three starts with a 1.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 24 percent strikeout, and 6.0 K:BB. The former top prospect is still just 23 years old with plenty of upside. Heck, he’s put up these numbers with bone chips in his elbow that will require offseason surgery.
Koehler has been inconsistent this year, but most of his bad work is confined to a few outings including a nine earned run thrashing at the hands of the Cardinals. He has a 3.52 ERA and 26 strikeouts in his four outings and 23 innings since the All-Star break.

CONSIDER

Marco Estrada	at TEX, CIN
Randall Delgado	BAL, at PIT

Notes:

Estrada was great against in the Giants in his return from the DL, but the Rangers and Reds are much better than them and he only went five innings.
Despite giving up eight runs in his last two outings to the Red Sox and Rays, Delgado still has a sharp 10-to-2 K:BB in his 11 innings. Homers have been the issue, as he’s allowed three in the two outings. The Orioles are my concern here, because they absolutely mash righties.

SIT