August 2, 2013

Fantasy Mailbag

Looking Ahead

by BP Fantasy Staff

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Question: Podcasters and fantasy writers chant "Flags Fly Forever" when talking about stashing potential players in dynasty/keeper leagues. I understand this, sacrificing an unknown future for a more certain present victory is an important concept. However, I get hung up on the fact that most of my leagues are H2H category leagues where it is a crapshoot once you get to the playoffs. If my team is positioned to make the playoffs, I feel that I have as good of a chance as any to win the league.

Is there anywhere specific that you would choose to focus your resources to shore up for the playoffs? Do you look at starting pitching matchups for September?

Answer: You can't figure out pitching matchups obviously, but you can look at schedules. Interestingly enough, Jason and I were on Google chat about a separate topic and, as I was typing how he easy Detroit's schedule is in September, he mentioned it as well. It's well known, but still exploitable. Three versus Boston early, but then CWS-KC-SEA-MIA-MIN all month.

Atlanta has a similarly easy schedule: MIA-NYM-PHI-WAS-SD-CHC-MIL.

You can go through and find others and then take advantage by targeting them in deals. It won't guarantee you anything, but it'll improve probabilities in your favor.

**We also discuss this as a staff on the latest episode of the Towers of Power Fantasy Hour podcast**

Question: I won't get into the specifics of the trade, but it would involve me paying a high price for Wil Myers. I'm toast this year so I'm okay to pay a high price if he is really is as good as he's shown so far in the majors. Who do you think is a reasonable comparison for Myers, long term? I think you guys used Swisher as a comparison before his arrival in the bigs? Has your opinion changed based on what he's done so far?

Answer: I stand by the Swisher comparison for now; it's still 156 PA. That said, I've been impressed, so if he's Swisher-plus, that's great, too.

Question: Hey guys, just wanted your opinion on who has more upside going forward after 2013, Nolan Arenado or Anthony Rendon? Was offered Nelson Cruz, Rendon, and Kevin Youkilis for Arenado, Michael Morse, and A.J. Burnett in a 16-team dynasty. I'm in last place so this is for next season and 2B Is definitely a weak point with Rickie Weeks being my current starter. I guess a lot hinges on Cruz for next season.

Answer: I'm a Rendon guy. Injuries are the only concern, not talent. He's a beast.

Question: I am going to trade Chris Sale. Are any of these guys not good targets? Evan Longoria, Shin-Soo Choo, Billy Butler, Adrian Beltre, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton?

Answer: Stick with the Longoria, Choo, Beltre, Craig realm.

Question: I have a five-keeper team in a 10-team league. My offense is as follows with six bench spots:

• C - Santana
• 1B - Hosmer
• 2B - Cano
• 3B - Donaldson/Frazier
• SS - Andrus/Rollins/Ramirez/Bogaerts
• OF - McCutchen/Bruce/Myers/Jackson/Hunter/Beltran

Pitching in this league has four SP and one RP slot. Pitchers I have are: Greinke, Cole, Lynn, Doubront, Kennedy, Peavy, Milone, Burnett, Cueto (DL) and Rodney.

I have been offered Kemp for Myers. Is there an obvious reason I should not do this deal?

I figure my keepers for next year would be:

1. Cano
2. Hosmer
3. McCutchen
4. Kemp
5. Bogaerts (as he will more than likely play next year)

Does that make sense? Or should I be looking to keep a pitcher?

Answer: No, it's a good offer. Not sure I'd keep Bogaerts because you're valuing him as a sixth-rounder in a 10-teamer. That puts a big burden on him to succeed immediately. Probably lean toward Bruce and Donaldson over Hosmer and Bogaerts. I assume that's Alexei Ramirez; otherwise, Hanley is an obvious keeper.

Question: Would you be confident starting Eovaldi in his following scheduled start Sunday vs. the Indians? Or would you instead start Rick Porcello on Sunday vs. the White Sox?

Answer: I'd prefer Porcello in that instance. I love Eovaldi, but we're still going to see ups & downs so I'm spotting him in cushier spots. CLE isn't a bad spot, but Porc v. CWS is much better.

Question: Whenever there is a trade and a pitcher is offered for a bat it has been said (all things being equal) that it's better to be on the side getting the bat. Every trade is its own animal but when does this saying get tweaked (i.e. in a dynasty league vs. redraft league)? Additionally, if we're assuming that we are moving a bat toward the end of his prime (29-30 years old) for a young arm (24-25 years old) does that change how you would approach it? At what point does the "golden rule" get turned on its head? The best example I could think of would be Cano for Harvey straight up. When addressing the dynasty impact just assume that the cost for keeping them would be equal.

Answer: I'd still take Cano in that scenario. If anything, I'd lean Cano more in than scenario than if the ages were closer. Harvey is still a major risk long-term, whereas I wouldn't find Wainwright to be such a risk.

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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