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July 15, 2013
BP Unfiltered
Betting on the Home Run Derby
by Andrew Koo
In general, you shouldn’t bet on sports. But say you did.
In general, you shouldn’t bet on a result unless you’ve done sufficient research.
For events like the Home Run Derby though, research is thrown out the window. If you’re betting on the Home Run Derby, well, then you’re betting on the Home Run Derby.
Pinnacle Sports has odds of almost every hitter matchup in Round 1. For example, the line on Chris Davis beating Bryce Harper is -149 (bet $149 to win $100). The line on Harper beating Davis is +127 (bet $100 to win $127 – a “plus” price).
If you are truly really actually indeed definitely betting on the Home Run Derby, my advice would be to bet underdogs (i.e. plus prices), because any time you can earn better than a 50% ROI on (essentially) a coin flip proposition, that’s value!
So what would’ve happened if you bet $100 on every round 1 underdog? Let’s see.
|
Matchup
|
Odds
|
Homers
|
Winner/Return
|
|
Harper vs Davis most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2101 Bryce Harper
|
+127
|
8
|
Tie
|
|
2102 Chris Davis
|
-149
|
8
|
100.00
|
|
Harper vs Wright most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2103 Bryce Harper
|
-174
|
8
|
Harper
|
|
2104 David Wright
|
+148
|
5
|
0.00
|
|
Harper vs Cuddyer most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2105 Bryce Harper
|
-220
|
8
|
Harper
|
|
2106 Michael Cuddyer
|
+185
|
7
|
0.00
|
|
Harper vs Alvarez most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2107 Bryce Harper
|
-136
|
8
|
Harper
|
|
2108 Pedro Alvarez
|
+116
|
6
|
0.00
|
|
Harper vs Fielder most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2109 Bryce Harper
|
+116
|
8
|
Harper
|
|
2110 Prince Fielder
|
-136
|
5
|
216.00
|
|
Harper vs Cano most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2111 Bryce Harper
|
-124
|
8
|
Harper
|
|
2112 Robinson Cano
|
+106
|
4
|
0.00
|
|
Harper vs Cespedes most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2113 Bryce Harper
|
-166
|
8
|
Cespedes
|
|
2114 Yoenis Cespedes
|
+141
|
17
|
241.00
|
|
Davis vs Wright most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2115 Chris Davis
|
-197
|
8
|
Davis
|
|
2116 David Wright
|
+167
|
5
|
0.00
|
|
Davis vs Cuddyer most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2117 Chris Davis
|
-225
|
8
|
Davis
|
|
2118 Michael Cuddyer
|
+189
|
7
|
0.00
|
|
Davis vs Alvarez most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2119 Chris Davis
|
-144
|
8
|
Davis
|
|
2120 Pedro Alvarez
|
+123
|
6
|
0.00
|
|
Davis vs Fielder most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2121 Chris Davis
|
-109
|
8
|
Davis
|
|
2122 Prince Fielder
|
-107
|
5
|
0.00
|
|
Davis vs Cano most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2123 Chris Davis
|
-142
|
8
|
Davis
|
|
2124 Robinson Cano
|
+121
|
4
|
0.00
|
|
Davis vs Cespedes most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2125 Chris Davis
|
-191
|
8
|
Cespedes
|
|
2126 Yoenis Cespedes
|
+162
|
17
|
262.00
|
|
Wright vs Cuddyer most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2127 David Wright
|
-143
|
5
|
Cuddyer
|
|
2128 Michael Cuddyer
|
+122
|
7
|
222.00
|
|
Wright vs Alvarez most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2131 David Wright
|
+119
|
5
|
Alvarez
|
|
2132 Pedro Alvarez
|
-139
|
6
|
0.00
|
|
Wright vs Fielder most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2131 David Wright
|
+152
|
5
|
Tie
|
|
2132 Prince Fielder
|
-179
|
5
|
100.00
|
|
Wright vs Cano most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2135 David Wright
|
+122
|
5
|
Wright
|
|
2136 Robinson Cano
|
-143
|
4
|
222.00
|
|
Wright vs Cespedes most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2137 David Wright
|
-102
|
5
|
Cespedes
|
|
2138 Yoenis Cespedes
|
-114
|
17
|
0.00
|
|
Cuddyer vs Alvarez most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2139 Michael Cuddyer
|
+136
|
7
|
Cuddyer
|
|
2140 Pedro Alvarez
|
-160
|
6
|
236.00
|
|
Cuddyer vs Fielder most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2139 Michael Cuddyer
|
+194
|
7
|
Cuddyer
|
|
2140 Prince Fielder
|
-232
|
5
|
294.00
|
|
Cuddyer vs Cano most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2141 Michael Cuddyer
|
+145
|
7
|
Cuddyer
|
|
2142 Robinson Cano
|
-171
|
4
|
245.00
|
|
Cuddyer vs Cespedes most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2143 Michael Cuddyer
|
+124
|
7
|
Cespedes
|
|
2144 Yoenis Cespedes
|
-145
|
17
|
0.00
|
|
Alvarez vs Fielder most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2145 Pedro Alvarez
|
+116
|
6
|
Alvarez
|
|
2146 Prince Fielder
|
-135
|
5
|
216.00
|
|
Alvarez vs Cespedes most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2147 Pedro Alvarez
|
-144
|
6
|
Cespedes
|
|
2148 Yoenis Cespedes
|
+123
|
17
|
223.00
|
|
Fielder vs Cano most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2149 Prince Fielder
|
-136
|
5
|
Fielder
|
|
2150 Robinson Cano
|
+116
|
4
|
0.00
|
|
Fielder vs Cespedes most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2151 Prince Fielder
|
-158
|
5
|
Cespedes
|
|
2152 Yoenis Cespedes
|
+135
|
17
|
235.00
|
|
Cano vs Cespedes most HRs in Round 1
|
|
|
|
2153 Robinson Cano
|
-142
|
4
|
Cespedes
|
|
2154 Yoenis Cespedes
|
+121
|
17
|
221.00
|
Record: 12 wins, 13 losses, 2 pushes
Payout: $3,033
Cost: $2,700
Net: $333
So if you did bet the underdog on every single one of these matchups, you would’ve come out a winner, thanks to the bats of Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Cuddyer. You also would’ve been biting your nails the whole time over the freaking Home Run Derby.
Andrew Koo is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Andrew's other articles.
You can contact Andrew by clicking here
<< Previous Article
Daily Roundup: Around ... (07/14)
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<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: Analyzi... (07/08)
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Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: New Knu... (07/15)
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Next Article >>
Overthinking It: This ... (07/15)
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