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June 26, 2013 Painting the BlackTrade Deadline Closeup: Chicago Cubs
The trade deadline is five weeks away, and that means it's time to begin analyzing the sellers and their products. Over the next month we'll take a look at each of the likely sellers and which players will pop up in trade talks and rumors. The Cubs, reportedly open for business, are up first. The Assets (Listed in descending order of expected impact) Position: SP Age as of Deadline: 29 Bats/Throws: R/R Half of Salary: $5.125 million Contract Status: Free agent at season's end Stats: 7 GS, 42.1 IP, 4.25 ERA, 2.64 SO/BB PECOTA Projection: 16 GS, 96 IP, 3.60 ERA, 2.73 SO/BB Ideal Role: No. 2 starter Perhaps the most prominent pitcher available on the trade market, Garza is unlikely to net as much in return as he did in 2011. Still, the Cubs should receive enough to forgo potential draft-pick compensation. The one plausible snafu is Garza's health: He's missed more than four months of action over the past year due to shoulder and elbow woes. When Garza makes it to the mound he does a lot of work with his fastball. He throws a four-seam and two-seam variation, and the pitch sits in the low-to-mid-90s and features arm-side run. When Garza is going for the knockout he breaks out his mid-80s slider, even against left-handed batters. In addition to the slider Garza throws a mid-70s curveball to change sightlines. There's a changeup in his arsenal, too, though he seldom uses it. Garza's big-game experience may appeal to interested parties, and he could be the truest thing to an impact starter on the market—even if he spits too much. Position: OF Age as of Deadline: 29 Bats/Throws: L/R Half of Salary: $1.125 million Contract Status: One more year of team control remaining Stats: 217 PA, .296/.347/.558 PECOTA Projection: 199 PA, .266/.318/.442 Ideal Role: Fat-side platoon corner outfielder Although Schierholtz has another year of team control remaining, he could find himself on the move for the second trade deadline in a row, having gone from the Giants to the Phillies in last July's Hunter Pence deal. Schierholtz's season is better at first glance than it appears up close: his at-bats have been micromanaged to the point where he's faced nearly 90 percent right-handed pitchers. There's nothing wrong with that strategy—he's always struggled versus same-handed pitching—yet it skews his raw numbers to look better than they would under normal conditions. Schierholtz isn't a great fielder, despite a strong arm, and he doesn't offer a lot on the basepaths, either. At the same time, any contender looking for affordable left-handed thump for this season, and perhaps next, could acquire Schierholtz and plug him into their lineup four or five times a week. Position: SP Age as of Deadline: 30 Bats/Throws: L/R Half of Salary: $3 million Contract Status: Free agent at season's end Stats: 14 GS, 85 IP, 3.39 ERA, 2.56 SO/BB PECOTA Projection: 15 GS, 90 IP, 4.23 ERA, 2.23 SO/BB Ideal Role: No. 4 starter Jed Hoyer did well during the offseason by signing Feldman to a one-year deal. The big right-hander made progress as a starter with the Rangers last season, and that progress has continued. He operates by mixing three pitches: a low-90s sinker, upper-80s cutter, and curveball—he leaves his splitter sitting on the sidelines. Feldman loves using the breaking ball to start at-bats against left-handed batters, and from there does his best to mix and match his offerings. There's no dominant pitch in his arsenal, which further necessitates he keep the ball down. As long as Feldman is generating groundballs and avoiding walks he fits in as a middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter. Position: RP Age as of Deadline: 27 Bats/Throws: L/L Half of Salary: $0.504 million Contract Status: Two more seasons of team control Stats: 35 G, 28.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 3.25 SO/BB PECOTA Projection: 33.1 IP, 4.79 ERA, 2.56 SO/BB Ideal Role: Set-up man Russell's career numbers are skewed upward because of his abysmal efforts as a starter. He's pitched much better out of the bullpen, where he's able to pitch off his slider from dawn til dusk. Despite Russell's big frame he's not much of a hard thrower, as he'll top out in the low-90s. But Russell makes up for his lack of elite velocity with a deep arsenal, a deceptive delivery in which he hides the ball well, and a high release point. Capable left-handed relievers are always in demand at the deadline, and ones with multiple years of team control even more so. The Cubs could keep Russell if nobody knocks their stirrups off. Position: OF Age as of Deadline: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L Half of Salary: $2.125 million Contract Status: One more year at $6.5 million (club option) Stats: 217 PA, .260/.318/.445 PECOTA Projection: 300 PA, .263/.334/.405 Ideal Role: Fourth outfielder DeJesus is on the disabled list with a strained right shoulder, and is not expected back until mid-July. By then the versatile outfielder will have about two weeks before the deadline to prove his health. A return to center field this season allows him to boast about having the most defensive flexibility of the outfielders listed here. However, DeJesus' game is about being decent all-around rather than standing out at any one thing. Factor in his struggles against same-side pitching, now going on three seasons, and he makes sense in a fourth outfielder role. In other words: He's the down-market alternative to Schierholtz. Position: RP Age as of Deadline: 35 Bats/Throws: R/R Half of Salary: Unreported Contract Status: Free agent at season's end Stats: 25 G, 24.1 IP, 1.11 ERA, 3.71 SO/BB PECOTA Projection: 30 IP, 4.03 ERA, 2.00 SO/BB Ideal Role: Middle reliever The most surprising name on the list, Gregg signed with the Cubs after failing to make the Dodgers. His pristine numbers are due to improvements against left-handed hitters. It's worth noting then that Gregg barely uses his cutter anymore, which over the previous three seasons had become his go-to secondary offering. Instead Gregg creates outs by playing keep-away with a low-90s fastball, curveball, and splitter. He's made some cosmetic changes to his delivery as well, though the core remains intact—including a stiff front leg and weak glove side. Gregg will not continue this improbable run of success, yet he should come cheap and could slot in as a middle-relief option. Position: OF Age as of Deadline: 37 Bats/Throws: R/R Half of Salary: $9 million Contract Status: One more year at $18 million Stats: 288 PA, .248/.278/.398 PECOTA Projection: 298 PA, .239/.293/.440 Ideal Role: Designated hitter Should the Cubs have traded Soriano during the offseason? It's a reasonable question to ask given the 37-year-old's descent from respectable to replacement-level. The Cubs reportedly value Soriano's intangibles—his work ethic, leadership, and other assorted personality quirks—and those are fine qualities to have on a rebuilding team. But one must wonder: Could the Cubs trade Soriano if they so desired? How much of the remaining $27 million would they need to eat for a team to take him on? It all comes down to the evaluation of Soriano. He still loves to swing the bat and expand his zone as much as he did during his younger, more productive days. Difference is, nowadays, Soriano doesn't pummel the ball as he used to, back when he was a doubles machine. Compounding matters is a putrid walk rate that ties his career-worst mark. No walks and average power production is a bad combination for a player who strikes out a fair amount of the time and adds little quantifiable value elsewhere. The resulting package is a player without an attribute to hang a hat on. So the chances of Soriano getting moved appear slim-to-none, but it takes just one team to believe a return to the pennant chase could revitalize his bat for that to change.
R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @r_j_anderson
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I think if the Cubs could've traded Soriano in the off-season, they would have. They've been trying to trade him since Theo/Jed took over.