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June 25, 2013 Prospects Will Break Your HeartThe Mid-Season Top 50 Prospects
Before you dive into the list, a few explanations about the construction that might prove beneficial. Prospects currently playing at the major-league level were not eligible for this list. I also didn’t follow standard guidelines for rookie eligibility; rather, if a prospect has logged significant playing time at the highest level—be it the commonly recognized 50 innings for a pitcher, 130 at-bats for a hitter, or just under those magic plateaus—I made a judgment call as to whether or not his inclusion would add to the product. This list is about prospects, not major-league players masquerading as prospects because they fall just short of such recognized classifications. If a player has sipped a form of major-league coffee over the course of two seasons, he won’t be included on this list. These are all prospects currently playing in the minors, and only four players on the list have major-league experience of any kind. Because it’s a mid-season list and not the more comprehensive offseason production, I wanted the focus to be on the talent in the minors and not on those still wearing the label despite playing under the bright lights in the big parks. “But hey, enough of my yakkin'. What do you say? Let’s boogie.” —Marty DiBergi
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #8 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Ft. Myers Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Buxton has the most exciting tool collection in the minors, which is why he ranks ahead of Taveras as the premier prospect in the game. The beauty of Buxton is the impact potential he has in all phases of the game, as the 19-year-old can go 1-for-5 at the plate but still patrol big swaths of real estate in center field and use his elite speed as a weapon on the bases. One scout source suggested his floor was Torii Hunter, which should be some indication just how high the ultimate ceiling could be. This is a special talent. You buy tickets to watch this kid play. Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; likely to remain top prospect in the game. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #2 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Memphis Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Taveras is the most gifted offensive talent on this list, and multiple sources have put an elite grade on his hit tool, suggesting that he has batting titles in his future. The 21-year-old will eventually settle in as a middle-of-the-order hitter at the highest level, where he should develop into a perennial all-star and possible MVP candidate if everything clicks……and it will click. Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; likely to remain a top-tier prospect until promotion. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #12 Current MilB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Pawtucket Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: The 20-year-old crushed in Double-A and earned a promotion to Pawtucket this June, making him the youngest player on the circuit. Bogaerts is a natural hitter who hasn’t even found his power stroke yet, and several sources think he could eventually develop into a .300 hitter with 30 bombs. Given the fact that he can stick at shortstop in the short term, Bogaerts has a chance to be one of the most rare commodities at the major-league level: a middle-of-the-order bat at a premium position, under team control for a very long time. Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; likely to remain number three until major-league promotion. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #10 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Carolina Reason for Inclusion in Top Ten: Lindor is a highly instinctual player with Gold Glove caliber defensive skills at shortstop, and enough offensive potential to be more than just a down-the-lineup hitter. His advanced feel for the game and chops with the glove are going to propel him to the major leagues faster than people might realize, and I wouldn’t be surprised if more offensive upside reveals itself several years down the line, after his wizardry at shortstop is already firmly established at the highest level. Prospect Trajectory: Down; Lindor has reached his highest point; will remain in top tier, but likely to drop given crop of offensive talent on the rise in the minors. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #31 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Mobile Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: I can’t speak for everybody, but Bradley’s command woes in his debut campaign hurt his stock when I was putting together the 101, and after watching him this spring and reading several reports on him in the last few months, I realize now that I was foolish to discount the profile and the raw stuff because of a bad stretch of control. The body, the makeup, the arsenal, the potential all suggested a top of the rotation ceiling when he was drafted, and that hasn’t changed much now that the 20-year-old is shoving it in Double-A. Given his overall profile, I’m not sure a healthy Bundy would rank higher. The title of top arm belongs to Bradley without an asterisk. Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; likely to remain in the debate for top arm in the minors until major league promotion. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #21 Current MiLB level/Affiliate: Double-A New Britain Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Sano has been climbing up prospect lists since he first signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old, and after an offensive explosion in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old is now among the top prospects in the game. The backbone of his game is the enormous raw power, which most scouts feel comfortable throwing an elite grade on. The hit tool is still a question mark, as is his defensive profile, but both the bat and the glove have received positive reviews in 2013, a good sign that Sano might offer more than just prodigious power. Prospect Trajectory: Down; the Double-A test is upon Sano, and given his age and exploitable weaknesses at the plate, his stock could slip if he struggles to make consistent contact. Given his offensive potential and adjustment potential, he isn’t likely to fall too far down the list. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #23 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Jacksonville Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Yelich makes a Sanoian jump up the list despite missing time to injury and not setting the stat sheet on fire in his Double-A debut. He was underrated by us coming into the season, an error I put on myself because I was more concerned with positional value than the quality of the hit tool. Yelich has a beautiful swing, one that is both efficient and powerful, and he absolutely rakes against right-handed pitching. His bat is going to play at the highest level, and the line-drive pop of the present will eventually turn into over-the-fence power as he continues to mature. Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; Yelich won’t be long for the minors, and is unlikely to rise or fall much before he finds himself in the major league mix. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #13 Current MilB Affiliate/Level: Triple-A Norfolk Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: Gausman felt the wrath of major-league bats in his brief five-start stay on the scene, but the LSU product has all the characteristics of a successful starter, including a plus-plus fastball and execution of a plus changeup. His control needs to turn into command to find sustainable success at the highest level, but the 22-year-old’s return trip to the minors should be brief and his long-term outlook in the majors should be bright. Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; Gausman will most likely finish the season on the major-league roster and lose eligibility for the 2014 BP 101. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #9 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Tacoma Reason for Inclusion in the Top 10: The 20-year-old owns an electric plus-plus fastball, a cutter he can throw in the low 90s (I’ve seen it up to 93 mph), and a sharp vertical curveball, but the command can come and go, the changeup is a below average offering, and the curveball, despite the depth, is very inconsistent. The statistical results are there, but more minor league seasoning is required of the future frontline starter before he is ready to assume that reality. Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; while it is conceivable that the promotion of his peers above him on this list will allow Walker to move up a few spots next offseason, he is unlikely to leap into the top five and eclipse Bradley as the top arm in the minors. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #11 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Altoona Reason for Inclusion in Top 10: After finishing the ’12 season by absolutely shoving it in three Double-A starts, Taillon has picked up where he left off and continues to flash the top of the rotation upside that made him the top arm in the 2010 draft class. The plus-plus fastball/curveball combo is going to carry the 21-year-old to the highest level, but continued refinement of his changeup and fastball command could make him an impact arm, a player that could form a potent one-two punch with Gerrit Cole atop the Pirates rotation. Prospect Trajectory: Down; Taillon is one of the best young arms in the minors and maintains a high ceiling, but the developmental struggles of a 21-year-old in the high minors could push him down the list a few spots by next offseason. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #22 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Stockton Prospect Trajectory: Up; Russell has the skill set to develop into a top tier prospect; good candidate for the top five next season. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #44 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Altoona Prospect Trajectory: Up; has the talent to move up the list, especially with a strong second half at the Double-A level; candidate for offseason top 10. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #19 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Lake Elsinore Prospect Trajectory: Down; in a prospect world where offensive production is king, the brilliant defensive profile of Hedges will get overlooked; simply put, Hedges could emerge as an elite defender with an average bat, which will make him a more valuable major league player than he is a minor league prospect. I have no problem being this high on Hedges. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #4 Current MilB Level/Affiliate: Currently injured Prospect Trajectory: Down; Bundy’s status will suffer and slide until he once again proves to be both healthy and effective. Major League ETA: 2012 (already pitched at ML level)
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #18 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Kane County Prospect Trajectory: Up; Almora is a legit five-tool talent who comes with an incredible feel for the game; has top tier potential. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #26 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Quad Cities Prospect Trajectory: Up; only 18 and taking big developmental steps at full-season level; has top tier potential. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #20 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Daytona Prospect Trajectory: Up; has the offensive upside to become of the top prospects in the game; high risk and chance for regression at Double-A level. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: N/A Prospect Trajectory: Up; should have short journey through minors; likely to offer impressive production until major league promotion; top 10 candidate for offseason 101 with strong debut. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #37 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Toledo Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; Castellanos should see significant time at the major-league level in 2014, and despite swinging a good stick in Triple-A, is unlikely to climb much higher as a prospect. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #78 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Dayton Prospect Trajectory: Up; has the talent to develop into one of the top arms in the minors; top of the rotation upside. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #56 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Memphis Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; could lose eligibility by next offseason; likely to develop into mid-rotation starter at highest level; low risk. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #43 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Memphis Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; has elite potential as a closer; near top of the rotation upside as a starter; higher risk in rotation; unlikely to jump much higher because of questions about future role. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #28 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Binghamton Prospect Trajectory: Up; has the combination of size and stuff to continue to climb the prospect ranks; a strong second half could propel him into top 10 discussion this offseason. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #32 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Dunedin Prospect Trajectory: Up; a healthy Sanchez has one of the highest upsides of any arm in the minors; potential to be top pitching prospect if everything clicks. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #48 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Bowling Green Prospect Trajectory: Up; frontline upside; on Rays’ barbeque development plan, so should have opportunity to slowly move up the prospect ranks and into the top tier. Major League ETA: 2016
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #47 Current MiLB level/Affiliate: High-A Tampa Prospect Trajectory: Down; Sanchez was underrated coming into the year at no. 47, and somehow feels overrated at the mid-season point; mixed reviews of Sanchez’s 2013 performance; high upside but equally high risk; bat is very good; positional home is still subject of debate. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #62 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Omaha Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; like Carlos Martinez, questions about ultimate role prevents a higher jump; elite potential out of the ‘pen; has the stuff to project as a frontline starter Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #15 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Las Vegas (injured) Prospect Trajectory: Down; can’t stay healthy; has dual threat potential at premium position; hard to project 2014 status because of current injury. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #27 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Pawtucket Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; brief major league run hurt status; defensive profile at premium position keeps him in top 30 range; will most likely lose eligibility before offseason 101. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #55 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Oklahoma City Prospect Trajectory: Down; good profile at premium spot; lots of swing-and-miss despite the pop; could fall a few spots before offseason 101. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #36 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Daytona Prospect Trajectory: Up; Soler’s power is legit, and as he matures at the plate, he will continue to tap into the tool in game action; lacks elite upside, but could jump up the list if the power plays. People love power. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #41 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Wilmington Prospect Trajectory: Up; the stuff is too good not to find success; lacks elite upside, but a strong second half could push Zimmer up the rankings at a healthy clip. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Rookie level Grand Junction Prospect Trajectory: Up; difficult task to rank players without any professional experience; 1:1 candidate with the stuff to take a huge leap in the rankings if the production matches the pre-draft reports; low starting point on list because of questions about future role. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #90 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Memphis Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; underrated on the offseason list; pure hitter likely to find a permanent home at the major-league level in 2014. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Great Lakes Prospect Trajectory: Up; highly skilled offensive threat; likely to climb the prospect ranks despite questions about long-term future at shortstop; should have been ranked higher coming into the year. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #25 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Triple-A Oklahoma City Prospect Trajectory: Up; mid-season status effected by lost developmental time; served suspension for using a naturally growing non-drug; has offensive upside to mash his way up the list with a strong second half. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #14 Current MiLB Level/Trajectory: Triple-A Louisville Prospect Trajectory: Down; overrated coming into the year because of elite speed and defensive potential at premium spot; bat has big question marks and could continue to drop him down the list as the season progresses. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #58 Current MiLB Level/Affiliation: Low-A Lexington Prospect Trajectory: Up; 17-year-old position prospect in a full-season league; developmental ebbs and flows, but first-division potential because of plus defensive skills at a premium position and offensive upside; could develop into top tier prospect. Major League ETA: 2016
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Portland Prospect Trajectory: Down; quality bat but questions about power potential and defensive projection; great production in High-A pushed him forward in status. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #71 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Jacksonville Prospect Trajectory: Up; when healthy, is a well rounded talent that can play up the middle and provide offensive value; lacks elite upside but could climb the list with a strong second half. Major League ETA: 2013
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Great Lakes Prospect Trajectory: Up; Urias is a 16-year-old lefty missing more than a bat an inning at the full-season level; his ultimate upside is still very abstract, but his prospect star is very much on the rise. Major League ETA: 2016
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Reading Prospect Trajectory: Up; the 20-year-old keeps raking at the plate; questions about long-term defensive home could prevent massive leap, but the bat could put him in the discussion for a much higher tier. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Lansing Prospect Trajectory: Holding steady; was underrated on offseason list; Osuna is a mature arm despite being only 18 years old, and the production should keep him in his current prospect range; lack of projection and a high maintenance body could prevent him from jumping into the rarified air of the top tier of arms in the minors. Major League ETA: 2016
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #88 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A New Britain Prospect Trajectory: Up; most likely still an underrated prospect; questions about ultimate role add risk to a higher ranking; has no. 2 starter upside and a floor of a late-innings bullpen arm; strong second half and improved command could lead to huge offseason jump up the list. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: High-A Jupiter Prospect Trajectory: Up; lefty with plus (to plus-plus) fastball; above average slider and improving changeup; could take a huge jump on 2014’s pre-season list. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A West Virginia Prospect Trajectory: Up; has the size, stuff, and production to continue rapid climb up prospect lists; strong second half could propel him into serious prospect company. Major League ETA: 2015
Placement on Pre-Season 101: #61 Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Ft. Wayne Prospect Trajectory: Up; Fried is on his way to becoming one of the top arms in the minors; it might be a slower climb than a prospect like Glasnow, but the resulting status will be the same. Major League ETA: 2016
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Prospect Trajectory: Up; Butler’s first half pushed him into the Top 50 mix, and a strong second half will push him even further heading into 2014. The stuff is very legit, and the 22-year-old could find himself in Double-A before the end of the season. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Double-A Corpus Christi Prospect Trajectory: Up; some of the best arm strength in the minors; questions about long term role because of secondary development; no. 2/3 starter ceiling or closer. Major League ETA: 2014
Placement on Pre-Season 101: N/A Current MiLB Level/Affiliate: Low-A Rome Prospect Trajectory: Up; will continue to climb prospect lists; plus raw stuff and feel for pitching; listed above several other promising prospects because of combination of age/production/projection. Major League ETA: 2016
*You can make a case for 25-plus prospects on the back third of the list, and I spent the better part of three weeks polling scouts and player development sources to listen to those cases. As a subjective exercise, favoritism and familiarity are heavy players in the opinion, and recent on-the-field production can certainly help tilt a close race in favor of one player over another. I could toy with the list for the rest of the month and not find consensus or comfort in the process or the product, but eventually you have to make a decision and slap it down on the table. The following prospects were in the mix for the final spots on this list. As much as I tried, I was unable to fit ~75 prospects into a 50-prospect box. In no particular order: Lance McCullers, Jose Berrios, Luis Heredia, Alen Hanson, Matt Barnes, Henry Owens, Joe Ross, Clayton Blackburn, Kyle Crick, Carlos Tocci, Jesse Biddle, Eddie Rosario, Sonny Gray, Miguel Almonte, Danny Hultzen, A prospect from your favorite team, Clint Frazier, Chris Owings, Zach Lee, etc. Link to Preseason Top 101 Prospects
Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @ProfessorParks
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Jason, I assume Bryant was left off the list as he hasn't signed yet. Where would he fit in if he had already signed?
Top 30, perhaps Top 25. I'd rank him ahead of Soler.
Then I guess we should assume he's not going to sign. Sucks. Ha!