June 6, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Dissecting the Draft: Ryne Stanek (Player Report)

by Nick J. Faleris

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Ryne Stanek | RHP | University of Arkansas
Ht/Wt: 6-4/190 | B/T: R/R | Age at Draft: 21y 10m

Grading Out:

	Current	Future
Fastball:	60	60/65
Slider:	50	55/60
Curveball:	45/50	50/55
Changeup:	45	50
Command:	40	40/45
Control:	45	50
Feel:	45	50
Overall Future Potential:		51/55
Adjusted OFP:		53/60

Stanek in 140 characters or less:

At best, 1-1 stuff; inconsistent execution; some workload concerns; long limbs; step back in '13, front-end potential; big FB; might be RP.

Physical Description:

Long and lean with high waist. Struggles some to control long levers. Adequate actions off the mound.

Mechanics:

Stanek began his career at Arkansas with a low arm slot, long stride and whippy arm. Over the past three years he has slowly raised his slot and shortened his stride in an effort to improve his control and more consistently get on top of the ball. The results have been mixed, as he has struggled to repeat his mechanics, and this spring has spent much of his time working from behind and driving up his pitch counts early in games. While at times he had issues with commanding the ball in seasons past, there was more explosiveness to both his fastball and slider, and overall his stuff was more effective and a little more consistent in execution. It's unclear whether Stanek simply needs more time to incorporate these mechanical tweaks, or if he'd be best served to revert to his old motion, which worked a little better for him despite its quirks.

Stuff:

Fastball – The fastball has graded as high as plus-plus in the past, but was more consistently a 55 or 60 on the 20/80 scale this spring. He has lost life compared to 2012 and has vacillated between the low- and upper-90s. If he can rediscover the pitch he showcased through his sophomore year and the prior summer with USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team, it could be a nasty weapon at the next level.

Slider – As with his fastball, Stanek's slider was a grade better last year, potentially projecting to a plus-plus offering with more refinement. He's lost tilt and bite on the offering this spring, and as a result it's fallen back to essentially a pitch on level with his fringe-average curveball. At it's best its a mid- to upper-80s wipeout pitch, but it has seldom been at its best this season.

Curveball – Stanek's curve has played better this year than last due to the slightly higher arm slot. An upper-70s breaker with 11-to-5 action, Stanek needs to find more consistency in his release, and even then the higher upside breaking ball is probably the slider.

Changeup – Stanek's low-80s off-speed is a fringy offering that could play to average if he smooths out his mechanics and is able to create more arm speed and arm slot deception. For now, it lags behind his other offerings and is not a reliable weapon.

Discussion:

At his best, Stanek looks like a front-end arm with multiple swing-and-miss weapons, but evaluators have not seen much of that Stanek this spring. His track record and upside could get him off the board in the second half of the top ten picks, but he's a better fit in the teens. Should he struggle at the pro ranks, he could quickly be converted to a two-pitch power arm in the pen.

Projected position: Mid-rotation starter; #3; potential late-inning arm

Suggested draft slot: Early- to mid-1st Round

Video:

Nick J. Faleris is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @NickJFaleris
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