Rumor Roundup: Tuesday... (01/15)
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January 14, 2013 Rumor RoundupMonday, January 14A quiet weekend brought virtually no signings and only a few scattered nuggets. Without further ado, here are those nuggets… Despite rumors last week, J.J. Hardy seems certain to stay in Baltimore Kubatko asked Showalter what sort of return it would take to pry the 30-year-old Hardy away, and the veteran skipper, who is entering his third full season at Camden Yards, shot back, “What word is above ‘overwhelmed’?” Floored? Dumbfounded? Flabbergasted? Take your pick—and even with shortstops coming at a premium, don’t expect any team to shoot high enough to woo general manager Dan Duquette into pulling the trigger. Hardy took a severe step backward at the plate in 2012, hitting just .238/.282/.389 (.234 TAv), but his 22 home runs did rank third among shortstops, and he is the only shortstop in the league to clear that total in each of the past two years. Hardy’s value comes primarily on defense, where he logged a career-best 19.6 FRAA last season, following up an 8.1 FRAA effort in 2011. That power-glove combination has helped Hardy to produce a combined 6.4 WARP in his first two years with the Orioles, even though his aggregate on-base percentage for the term is below .300. Acquired from the Twins two Decembers ago in a lopsided barter for minor-league pitchers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson, Hardy settled for $5.85 million in 2011, and then inked a three-year, $22.25 million extension, which he easily outperformed in 2012. Barring further offensive regression or a sudden decline in his fielding skills, Hardy figures to outperform his $7 million paychecks in 2013 and 2014, too—and that projection explains why Duquette and Showalter are disinclined to move him. Assuming that Hardy stays in Baltimore, 20-year-old Manny Machado—who showed impressive thump but a predictably immature approach in his debut—will almost certainly spend at least the first two full years of his major-league career at the hot corner. The tandem of Hardy and Machado, who complements his shortstop range with a plus arm, gives the Orioles an excellent left side of the infield, a setup that fits well with their ground-ball-oriented pitchers. Baltimore ranked 14th in the league with a .236 BABIP allowed on grounders last year, but with Machado set for his first full season in The Show, the O’s could improve on that effort in 2013. Dan O’Dowd hunting for low-cost rotation depth About three weeks ago, Lowe told Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe that he has fielded calls from multiple teams, but is waiting for one of them to offer a legitimate chance to earn a rotation spot, rather than a swingman role. If he’s willing to battle myriad young pitchers with similarly unimpressive 2012 credentials, then the Rockies could become a viable destination. Volstad, who came to the Cubs in the Carlos Zambrano trade with the Marlins last January, was claimed by the Royals in October, but spent less than a month with his third organization before being designated for assignment and electing free agency. He took home nearly $2.7 million in a deal to forgo his first year of arbitration, but won’t see anywhere near that salary in 2013 after a second consecutive below-replacement-level campaign. The Rockies are one of the few teams that might be willing to gamble on his ground-ball tendencies, and thus might be a logical landing spot. Mets attended Brian Wilson’s private workout on Saturday The Mets don’t have a desperate need for Wilson—with Frank Francisco and Bobby Parnell representing in-house options for the ninth inning and only infinitesimal odds of contending in 2012—but they could invest in the 30-year-old’s recovery, with a goal of either flipping him at the trade deadline or, much less likely, extending a qualifying offer next winter. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweeted on Jan. 6 that the Mets “have quite a bit of money left to spend,” and though Alderson has plenty of other needs to address, fortifying the bullpen with a low-risk, one-year pact with Wilson could prove prudent if a strong market for relief help develops in July.
Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @danielrathman
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A good low risk-possible high reward sign would be Chris Volstad as he is still so young and never missed a ML start due to injury.
The trouble is, surfdent48, he also hasn't shown any improvement, despite plenty of time and the change of scenery from Miami to Chicago. He still has the big frame and the sinker, but it's difficult to foresee a breakout barring a sudden, significant improvement in secondary skills.
The change of scenery from the very bad Marlins to the awful 101 game losing Cubs, as well as his almost MLB worst run support for the last 3-4 years, ruined his confidence. The major league physical skills are there. His problem is mental which is very fixable at his young age. (See the career paths of Lohse, Carpenter and Vogelsong, eg.)
In all fairness, I think that pitches like this one have something to do with the lack of confidence - it's tough to remain self-assured when one is missing targets by more than a foot (check out the C's glove at set-up).
I agree that he is young enough to turn it around, though I also agree that he has yet to show the secondary stuff to warrant much optimism.
You are correct that this is a good example of pitching without confidence, but I believe the reasons I mentioned before are the causes of this. Pitching for a better team with decent run support would go a long way in helping a young pitchers mental state. This would result in fewer pitches like the one you showed, even though one could find examples of very bad pitches like this from every ML pitcher. Pitching too cautiously, without confidence,leads to his inconsistency with command, even with good "stuff" which he has.