BP Daily Podcast

The Jays lost their full rotation in the summer to injury. At basically the same time stacked. The Jays had 81 W in 2011 and 85 W in 2010.

Looking at players in versus out for just next year (using past 3 year averages for a Q&D meassure):

Reyes 3.7 WARP - Escobar 1.4 WARP = +2.3 WARP
Johnson 2.8 WARP - Alvarez -0.3 WARP = +3.1 WARP
Buehrle 1.8 WARP (replacing 0 or negative warp guys like Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Brett Cecil) = +1.8 WARP
Buck 1.3 WARP - Mathis -.6 WARP = +1.9 WARP

put that together and you get +9.1 WARP in one deal for next year. Note, for depth, they also added JA Happ at the end of the season and Izturis already this off season. They only really had 4 good (>1.5 WARP) guys last season (Encarnacion, Bautista, Lawrie, and Morrow).

I think that is enough of an upgrade, with the rest of the roster, to put them in the 85-90 win range. Maybe not quite enough, but the off season isn't over. Also, maybe that is enough for 2nd WC - or enough to see where you are in July and add if the team seems close.