Wezen-Ball

I love your optimism, but as a Giants fan I fear Tigers in five.

However, if the Giants are to win this thing here are a few things I predict have to happen and thoughts about what I'd like to see.

Obviously Zito has to pitch his second consecutive "game of his contract." And against Verlander he may not get much run support.

But, in this year's All-Star game, Giants were a key part of Verlander's one inning, five earned run debacle.

M*lky Cabr*ra singled on the only pitch he saw from Verlander (a 95 mph fastball), a couple batters later Buster Posey drew a 4 pitch walk (100, 100, 96, 94, all four-seamers), and Pablo Sandoval followed that with a take of a 96, a foul of a 96, and a three-rbi triple on an 81 mph curve (after Verlander had thrown 9 straight fastballs and 24 of 29).

Verlander was pitching for the all-star game, he later said, and indeed threw 80% fastballs through the Panda's at bat, compared to 55.9% on the season, and was throwing them at higher than his 94 MPH seasonal average velocity.

Still, maybe it says that Verlander didn't have much of a book on these guys (he says, hopefully ignoring small sample size bias).

The choice of Anibal Sanchez for game three over Max Scherzer could weigh in the Giants favor, but that's kind of negated if Bochy goes with Vogelsong over Cain, as is rumored to be the case.

One thing that may play large is extreme platoon splits in the two bullpens and how Leyland and Bochy are able to capitalize on matchups with reliever or pinch hitters.

First off, I wish Bochy would flip-flop Belt and Pence in the lineup to break up the string of three lefties at the bottom. Plus, it seems to me Belt is stinging the ball more consistently right now (although Pence did hit one ball three times). Guess he's protecting the rookie from too much pressure.

For the Tigers, only Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque (righties) and Duane Below (lh) are okay against both hands.

Righties Jose Valverde, Brayan Villarreal, and Octavio Dotel all pretty much give it up against lefties.

New closer lefty Phil Coke gets lefties okay (.318 on base against), but goes flat against righties at a whopping .446.

LOOGYs Darin Downs and Drew Smyly aren't quite as bad against righties (though Downs comes close at .396).

Al Alburquerque was actually a reversed righty in his limited action, and still tolerable against righties, against whom he was used slightly more often. Rick Porcello was better against righties, but not very good.

So I'd say if the Giants are to win, Aubrey Huff is going to have to have a big pinch-hit at bat (or three) against Valverde, Dotel, Villarreal, or Porcello and Joaquin Arias, Hector Sanchez (switch-hitter, better against lefties), Xavier Nady, or Ryan Theriot will have to against Coke, Smyly, or Downs.

As for the Giants pen, facing Leyland's completely alternating lineup, Sergio Romo (rh) is better against righties but good both ways and Jeremy Affeldt (lh) is tolerable against both (obp around .315 each way).

Reversed righty George Kontos had an under-the-radar successful debut, with OBP allowed of .246 (slugging of .222) against lefties and .267/.385 facing about twice as many righties.

LOOGY Javier Lopez is both better than Darin Downs against lefties and worse than he (and Coke, for that matter) against righties (with an OBP against of .500).

And ROOGY Santiago Casilla got righties fairly well (.267 OBP) and was at .339 vs. righties. New reliever Tim Lincecum was actually better this year against lefties, at .330 OBP, with righties getting on at a .352 clip.

Avisail Garcia may be a key name against Affeldt or Lopez, although he doesn't hit for a lot of pop. Righty Gerald Laird was better against righties this year (with a .420 OBP), so he might match up well against Kontos.

And in two pitchers' parks, it'll be who plays better defense.

Okay, S.F. in seven after falling behind 3-1, as it seems like that kind of season...

Tigers in 3

Brandon Belt will have a plate appearance in which he takes a called strike, then makes an out. He will then be called "too passive".

A couple of web sites that I will not name will say the Tigers are overwhelming favorites and cite the fact that they play in, quote, "the stronger league" as evidence to support the claim. Absolutely nothing that occurs on the field will have anything to do with that evidence.

FOX (and other networks) planting actors from their shows in prime seats and then showing them during the games is the worst thing in sports. Period.

Hey! Don't knock "Land of Hope and Dreams."