August 16, 2012

Resident Fantasy Genius

A Summer Success Story

by Derek Carty

I’ve been talking a lot about theory lately, so I thought I’d lighten things up today and talk about my favorite subject: me.  More specifically, I wanted to update you on the progress of my Tout Wars team’s transformation. A couple weeks ago, I talked about how I approach making trades and offered up my Tout NL dealings as a real-life example.  That was in the midst of my process to turn my team into a contender, shifting my resources toward the categories that I could gain the most ground in.  My stated goals at the time basically boiled down to:

1.     Get saves

2.     Get as much offense as possible, regardless of category

3.     Hope Mike Morse and Justin Upton wake up

Below, you’ll find a complete list of the moves I’ve made and a side-by-side comparison of my roster before and after. 

·       Traded R.A. Dickey, Tyler Greene, and Ernesto Frieri for Rickie Weeks, Adam LaRoche, and Kenley Jansen

·       Traded Juan Uribe, Elian Herrera, and $5 FAAB for Mark Ellis

·       Won Francisco Cordero for $17 FAAB

·       Traded Ryan Dempster for J.J. Putz

·       Traded Matt Cain for Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Ruiz (DL), and Ted Lilly (DL)

·       Won Welington Castillo for $15 FAAB

·       Traded $5 FAAB for Jason Marquis

·       Won Tyler Greene for $10 FAAB

Pos	Old Squad	New Squad
C	Ramon Hernandez	Welington Castillo
C	Rod Barajas	Rod Barajas
1B	Mike Morse	Mike Morse
2B	Tyler Greene	Rickie Weeks
3B	Chipper Jones	Chipper Jones
SS	Paul Janish	Tyler Greene
CI	Juan Uribe	Adam LaRoche
MI	Cesar Izturis	Mark Ellis
OF	Justin Upton	Justin Upton
OF	Dexter Fowler	Dexter Fowler
OF	Justin Ruggiano	Justin Ruggiano
OF	Ryan Ludwick	Ryan Ludwick
UT	Jon Jay	Jon Jay
Swingman	Jason Grilli	Ramon Hernandez
P	Anibal Sanchez	Anibal Sanchez
P	Erik Bedard	Erik Bedard
P	Michael Fiers	Michael Fiers
P	R.A. Dickey	Jason Marquis
P	Matt Cain	Jonathan Papelbon
P	Ryan Dempster	J.J. Putz
P	Rafael Betancourt	Rafael Betancourt
P	Ernesto Frieri	Kenley Jansen
P	Matt Belisle	Drew Storen
BN	Nate Schierholtz	Nate Schierholtz (DL)
BN	Jedd Gyorko	Jedd Gyorko
BN	Elian Herrera	Matt Belisle
BN	Juan Carlos Oviedo	Jason Grilli
DL	Todd Helton	Carlos Ruiz
DL	Tim Stauffer	Tim Stauffer
DL	Drew Storen	Ted Lilly
DL	Wil Nieves	Francisco Cordero
DL	(EMPTY)	Juan Carlos Oviedo

Overall, I couldn’t be more pleased with the job I did retooling my roster.  I’ve gone from having an offense with several near-dead spots (Uribe, Janish, Izturis, Greene, a MR as my swingman, and even Hernandez) to one without a single dead spot (okay, Hernandez may still count, but Schierholtz is playing every day now while healthy).

While Justin Upton still isn’t showing much sign of life, Mike Morse has begun heating up (.296 with three homers this month) while Rickie Weeks (.311 with four homers) and Adam LaRoche (.301 with seven homers) have been dominant since I acquired them. Ruggiano, Ludwick, and Jay keep pounding away as well, resulting in my team gaining offensive ground quickly.

I was absolutely thrilled to get Tyler Greene back this past Monday.  After I traded him away in the Dickey deal, his new owner soon released him, so I scooped him back up now that he’ll be starting nearly everyday and batting leadoff for the Astros.  Yes, it’s the Astros, but I’ve long-believed in his five-tool talent, and full-time at-bats are incredibly valuable in deep leagues like this.

The addition of Ruiz came after his DL stint, but if he and Lilly manage to come back in early September, I could come out a big winner in the Cain trade.  As with the Dickey/Weeks trade before it, when you’re trailing, sometimes these kind of calculated risks are necessary.  (Even if neither returns, however, Papelbon fills a need and probably isn’t that much less valuable than Cain by himself).

On the pitching side, yes, it kind of sucks to lose Cain, Dickey, and Dempster, but with such a good ERA and WHIP, I really don’t need them.  In their place, I have three new closers that could allow me to win the saves category outright.  My Cordero buy flopped, but Papelbon, Jansen, and Putz are about as stable as they come.

I also like my under-the-radar Marquis buy.  He’s far from a stud, but when I really just need cheap, reliable innings to hold ground in wins and strikeouts, he’s perfectly fine.  And if he keeps pitching like he has since joining the Padres (7.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 53% GB%, 3.37 xFIP), I’ll have no complaints.  I’m disappointed I missed out on Justin Germano in this week’s FAAB bidding on a bit of a technicality, but if my biggest regret at this point is missing out on a filler arm like Germano, I think I’m doing all right.  I still would like to find one more low-level starting pitcher, and I have $15 FAAB to play with, so hopefully I should manage to do so.  Plus, I may have Lilly and Stauffer returning in a few weeks, allowing me to play the match-ups and plug in starters with two-start weeks to maximize my innings down the homestretch.

Following my Greene acquisition (which more-or-less signaled the end of my team’s transformation) one of my fellow Tout NL owners told me that he believes I’m a lock for a top-three position by season’s end with first place being decided by a matter of points.  While I’m not counting my chickens yet, I’m starting to believe there’s a really good chance of this happening.  When last I wrote, I stood in ninth place with 66.5 points.  Now, I’m in fifth with 77.5 bones—2.5 out of third place and 11.5 out of first.

I know many fantasy players hate reading about other peoples’ teams, but if you’ve lasted this long, you’ll now hear my reason for engaging in this seemingly self-congratulatory exercise (aside from indulging my own selfishness and vanity, of course). The job isn’t done yet for my Tout team, but whether my competitor’s prediction comes true or not, I think this proves a valuable point that if you truly and honestly evaluate your team and the standings, work hard at fixing the things that can be fixed, and take calculated risks, a big deficit in July can be overcome.  Never give up on a team until all is truly lost, especially if you have strengths you can deal from.