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August 1, 2012 Value PicksRelievers for 8/1/12
Arrivals So, with Johnson something of an enigma right now, setup man Pedro Strop (Yahoo! 20%, ESPN 4.5%, CBS 13%) becomes a nice add for saves speculators in this post-trade deadline world. Strop, a strong-armed reclamation project who has panned out so far in Baltimore, has already gained traction in holds leagues (17 holds) thanks to his very tidy ratios (1.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). The 3.40 FIP suggests there’s been some favorable luck at play for Strop, so keep that in mind, but otherwise he’s a savvy play if you think something’s up with Johnson. Predicting a Giants bullpen shakeup could very well be something of an exercise in futility at this point. Closer Santiago Casilla has been in a slump for a while now, posting a 6.89 ERA and converting just two-thirds (10-of-15) of his save chances since June 1. Frail-armed setup man Sergio Romo has usage restrictions and has been torched in his past two outings, so Jeremy Affeldt (Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 0%, CBS 1%) is a sneaky add for those desperate for saves. This is a long shot, but with Casilla mired in mediocrity and even Romo looking mortal lately, maybe the Giants will give Affeldt a shot.
Incumbents Astros manager Brad Mills confirmed before Tuesday night’s game that right-hander Wilton Lopez (Yahoo! 6%, ESPN 4%, CBS 9%) will be in the mix for saves, though he will continue to be used strategically in other situations as well. The less-than-firm plan dampens Lopez’s long-term outlook somewhat, especially since he’s dealing with arm issues, but if you need saves, Lopez is a guy who is perfectly capable of getting the job done when healthy. I’d advise Francisco Cordero owners to cut bait just for the sake of their sanity, but they might want to hold on just a while longer to make sure Lopez is okay. I get it: No one really wants to own a piece (or both pieces) of a last place team’s closer platoon. This, of course, may account for Glen Perkins’ (Yahoo! 17%, ESPN 18%, CBS 16%) and Jared Burton’s (Yahoo! 12%, ESPN 11%, CBS 11%) low ownership rates. But if you’re still in contention in a yearly league, every save can make a difference—for you and your opponents. The Twins don’t seem to be seeing many save chances lately, but that doesn’t mean they won’t. Last place teams still generate plenty of saves opportunities. This blurb is totally canned, but you know the drill by now with Mariano Rivera (Yahoo! 20%, ESPN 15%, CBS 19%). The player expressed an interest in returning this season, but his GM said it’s not going to happen. You’ve got to play in an insanely deep or keeper league to hold onto or add Mo, but as long as it’s out there ...
Departures Marlins closer Steve Cishek (Yahoo! 29%, ESPN 41%, CBS 27%) has finally hit the tipping point for exposure; he has now been snatched up in enough leagues to no longer be considered a “value pick.” Cishek is a solid reliever and could hold the job for the season’s balance, though I suspect the Marlins may intercede on Heath Bell’s behalf at some point with an eye toward restoring his crumbled stock to some degree for a potential offseason trade.
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As a reader of this column I picked up Benoit a few weeks ago, but it just doesn't look like Papa Grande is going to lose his job (he does have the nickname and all). Who do you like more to actually take over their closer role though: Benoit or Pedro Strop (Holland is already gone)?