July 17, 2012
Overthinking It
PECOTA's First-Half Hits and Misses
by Ben Lindbergh
Sometimes you’re not quite sure what your next column is going to be about, and then you get a pair of tweets like this:
And then you know exactly what your next column is going to be about.
Half of the fun of having a projection system is bragging about what went right. The other half is figuring out what went wrong. This article does a bit of both.
These are the position players and pitchers whose 2012 True Averages and Fair Run Averages PECOTA has come closest to and furthest away from predicting (minimum 200 plate appearances or 80 innings pitched). In keeping with BP tradition, each hit or miss is inexplicably accompanied by a haiku.
Batters
Hits
10. Will Venable
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.261
|
.263
|
-.002
|
.002
|
He can do it all
But can’t do it all that well
Check out away stats
9. Chris Davis
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.271
|
.272
|
-.001
|
.001
|
April was so kind
Might not be Quad-A after all!
All downhill from there
8. Jason Heyward
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.294
|
.293
|
.001
|
.001
|
Heyward back on track
Better power, baserunning
Best of all, not hurt
7. Andres Torres
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.258
|
.259
|
-.001
|
.001
|
Pagan and Torres
Similar before, but now
Pagan is better
6. Zack Cozart
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.247
|
.246
|
.001
|
.001
|
Cozart hasn’t hit
But whatever he does, he’s
Better than Janish
5. Jimmy Rollins
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.245
|
.246
|
-.001
|
.001
|
Back in ’07
Rollins won the MVP
But he won’t this year
4. Derek Jeter
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.267
|
.266
|
.001
|
.000
|
Can’t hit right-handers
Can’t hit the ball in the air
Still above average!
3. Darwin Barney
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.244
|
.244
|
.000
|
.000
|
Best shape of his life
Twenty more pounds of muscle
Not a power threat
2. Miguel Montero
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.276
|
.276
|
.000
|
.000
|
With the extension
D-Backs sought more of the same
And they're getting it
1. Brett Lawrie
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.268
|
.268
|
.000
|
.000
|
More valuable
In 43 games last year
than 85 now
Misses
10. James Loney
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.219
|
.272
|
-.053
|
.053
|
We knew he was bad
But not that he was this bad
Hits like a catcher
9. Edwin Encarnacion
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.338
|
.284
|
.054
|
.054
|
Had him on my team
But stopped playing fantasy
A few years too soon
8. Kurt Suzuki
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.195
|
.257
|
-.062
|
.062
|
Game’s most-played catcher
Over the past five seasons
Maybe he’s tired
7. Austin Jackson
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.331
|
.266
|
.065
|
.065
|
Tigers MVP:
Not Verlander or Miggy
But Austin Jackson
6. Andrew McCutchen
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.368
|
.303
|
.065
|
.065
|
Only 25
He leads the world in WARP
It’s sort of scary
5. Melky Cabrera
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.335
|
.267
|
.068
|
.068
|
Maybe these are the
Saddest of possible words:
Sanchez to KC
4. Nick Hundley
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.181
|
.250
|
-.069
|
.069
|
Used to like Petco
Hitting .120 there now
Petco conquers all
3. Carlos Ruiz
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.350
|
.280
|
.070
|
.070
|
Most catchers can’t hit
And also play good defense
Ruiz can do both
2. Mark Trumbo
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.354
|
.284
|
.070
|
.070
|
Mark Trumbo’s home runs
Fly the farthest in baseball
So says HitTracker
1. Mike Trout
|
Actual TAv
|
Predicted TAv
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
.364
|
.289
|
.075
|
.075
|
No 20-year-old
Has won an MVP award
That might change this year
Pitchers
Hits
10. Edwin Jackson
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
4.52
|
4.43
|
.09
|
.09
|
This one was easy
Jackson’s stats have barely budged
As good as he gets?
9. Joe Blanton
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
4.38
|
4.46
|
-.08
|
.08
|
Most NL home runs
And league’s lowest walk rate means
Many solo shots
8. Justin Verlander
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
3.24
|
.316
|
.08
|
.08
|
Barring a bad half
Verlander will likely win
A second Cy Young
7. Phil Hughes
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
4.38
|
4.31
|
.07
|
.07
|
Some writers said that
Hughes was unpredictable
Not for PECOTA
6. Hiroki Kuroda
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
4.62
|
4.69
|
-.07
|
.07
|
Life’s three certainties:
Death, taxes, and Kuroda’s
Sub-4.00 ERA
5. Stephen Strasburg
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
2.80
|
2.87
|
-.07
|
.07
|
He does everything
Except surprise PECOTA
Hype was justified
4. Matt Moore
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
4.17
|
4.21
|
-.04
|
.04
|
Not every arm
Can mature quite as quickly
As Clayton Kershaw’s
3. Lucas Harrell
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
5.01
|
5.03
|
-.02
|
.02
|
Some scouts said Harrell
Was a good fit for the pen
Those scouts were not wrong
2. Jordan Zimmermann
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
3.83
|
3.84
|
-.01
|
.01
|
Zim could be an ace
If he didn’t share a team
With Stephen Strasburg
1. Jake Westbrook
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
4.72
|
4.72
|
.00
|
.00
|
Dave Duncan is gone
Which made everyone worry
But Westbrook abides
Misses
10. Hector Noesi
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
6.29
|
5.02
|
1.27
|
1.27
|
Pineda is out
But so far the Mariners
Are losing the trade
9. Clay Buchholz
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
5.87
|
4.49
|
1.38
|
1.38
|
The scary thing is
This would have looked even worse
A couple months back
8. Felix Doubront
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
4.47
|
5.90
|
-1.43
|
1.43
|
When pitchers are off
They’re worse than PECOTA thought
Except for Doubront
7. Jeremy Hellickson
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
5.30
|
3.86
|
1.44
|
1.44
|
PECOTA thinks more
of Hellickson’s strikeout rate
Than most people do
6. Tim Lincecum
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
4.45
|
3.10
|
1.45
|
1.45
|
PECOTA believed
In what Lincecum achieved
But it was deceived
5. Ricky Romero
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
6.34
|
4.86
|
1.48
|
1.48
|
Okay, so maybe
Romero isn’t as good
As he looked last year
4. Matt Garza
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
5.60
|
4.06
|
1.54
|
1.54
|
More of his fly balls
Have become home runs this year
Than all last season
3. Ervin Santana
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
6.38
|
4.39
|
1.99
|
1.99
|
When in Anaheim
Santana might seem to be
Better than he is
2. Mike Minor
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
6.52
|
4.53
|
1.99
|
1.99
|
The NL’s answer
To poor Ervin Santana
Is named Mike Minor
1. Ubaldo Jimenez
|
Actual FRA
|
Predicted FRA
|
Diff
|
Absolute Diff
|
|
6.09
|
3.98
|
2.11
|
2.11
|
Things were looking up
Until Ubaldo’s last start
Now they’re looking down
Thanks to Colin Wyers for research assistance.
Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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