June 4, 2012

Future Shock Blog

Draft Day Dream Crushing

by Kevin Goldstein

Unless you live under a rock, and no offense to those living under a rock, you know the draft takes places tonight. The draft creates a lot of excitement, but it's important to be realistic as well about the player that gets added to your favorite. Whomever your favorite team takes, it's not time to start inserting him into future lineups. The attrition rate for top picks has improved dramatically, yet remains brutal. So for a little dose of reality here are the top five hitters and pitchers for each slot. Of the 47 players taken in draft history, this is the cream of the crop, and it can be a bit of an eye-opener. A big note of thanks to Bradley Ankrom for doing the leg work here.

1. (Astros)

Hitters: Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Chipper Jones, Harold Baines, Darryl Strawberry

Pitchers: Andy Benes, Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore, Ben McDonald, Kris Benson

2. (Twins)

Hitters: Reggie Jackson, Will Clark, Lloyd Moseby, John Stearns, B.J. Upton

Pitchers: Josh Beckett, Greg Swindell, Justin Verlander, Bill Gullickson, Mark Prior

3. (Mariners)

Hitters: Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, Matt Williams, Lonnie Smith, Troy Glaus

Pitchers: Bobby Witt, Steve Avery, Larry Christenson, Joe Coleman, Brian Anderson

4. (Orioles)

Hitters: Dave Winfield, Barry Larkin, Thurman Munson, Darrell Porter, Ryan Zimmerman

Pitchers: Kevin Brown, Jon Matlack, Kerry Wood, Alex Fernandez, Ken Brett

5. (Royals)

Hitters: Dale Murphy, J.D. Drew, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Braun, Vernon Wells

Pitchers: Dwight Gooden, Jack McDowell, Kent Mercker, Brandon Morrow, John Patterson

6. (Cubs)

Hitters: Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield, Derek Jeter, Andy Van Slyke, Kevin McReynolds

Pitchers: Zack Greinke, Ricky Romero, Derek Lilliquist, Roy Thomas, Ross Detwiler

7. (Padres)

Hitters: Frank Thomas, Troy Tulowitzki, Prince Fielder, Trot Nixon, Nick Markakis

Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Richard Dotson, Homer Bailey, Kyle Snyder, Jonathan Johnson

8. (Pirates)

Hitters: Todd Helton, Jay Bell, Gary Roenicke, Todd Walker, Felipe Lopez

Pitchers: Steve Trout, Paul Maholm, Jim Abbott, Joey Hamilton, Mike Leake

9. (Marlins)

Hitters: Geoff Jenkins, Mark Kotsay, Michael Cuddyer, Preston Wilson, Clint Hurdle

Pitchers: Kevin Appier, Barry Zito, Ron Darling, Duane Ward, Jeff Francis

10. (Rockies)

Hitters: Ted Simmons, Mark McGwire, Tim Wallach, Robin Ventura, Eric Chavez

Pitchers: Ben Sheets, Tim Lincecum, Jon Garland, Jaret Wright, Madison Bumgarner

11. (Athletics)

Hitters: Greg Luzinski, Shane Mack, Walt Weiss, Andrew McCutchen, Jim Spencer

Pitchers: Shawn Estes, Adam Eaton, Max Scherzer, Rod Scurry, Chris Knapp

12. (Mets)

Hitters: Nomar Garciaparra, Kirk Gibson, Delino DeShields, Jay Bruce, Oddibe McDowell

Pitchers: Billy Wagner, Jered Weaver, Matt Morris, Brett Myers, Todd Ritchie

13. (White Sox)

Hitters: Manny Ramirez, Garry Templeton, Paul Konerko, Aaron Hill, Bill Spiers

Pitchers: Frank Tanana, Gary Nolan, Mark Redman, Donovan Osborne, Bill Bray

14. (Reds)

Hitters: Derrek Lee, Tom Brunansky, Tino Martinez, Cliff Floyd, Jason Varitek

Pitchers: Scott McGregor, Jeff Weaver, Tommy Greene, Ron Villone, Cris Carpenter

15. (Indians)

Hitters: Jim Rice, Chase Utley, Richie Hebner, Leon Durham, Royce Clayton

Pitchers: Chris Carpenter, Scott Kazmir, Scott Garrelts, Mike Parrott, Sean Lowe

16. (Nationals)

Hitters: Lance Berkman, Lance Parrish, Shawn Green, Nick Swisher, Bernie Carbo

Pitchers: Roberto Hernandez, Scott Bankhead, Jason Jennings, Mike Remlinger, Kip Wells

17. (Blue Jays)

Hitters: Gary Matthews, Jeromy Burnitz, Brian McRae, David Murphy, Nick Esasky

Pitchers: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, Charles Nagy, Cal Eldred

18. (Dodgers)

Hitters: Willie Wilson, Carlos May, Dan Ford, Dave Rader, Glenn Wilson

Pitchers: R.A. Dickey, Joe Magrane, Aaron Heilman, Jack Armstrong, Frank Riccelli

19. (Cardinals)

Hitters: Bobby Grich, Mike Scioscia, Shannon Stewart, Alex Rios, Terry Whitfield

Pitchers: Roger Clemens, Brian Bohanon, Jay Powell, Sean Burnett, Rob Dressler

20. (Giants)

Hitters: Torii Hunter, Gregg Jefferies, Adam Kennedy, Denard Span, Dale Berra

Pitchers: Mike Mussina, CC Sabathia, Bob Welch, Rick Rhoden, Eric Milton

21. (Braves)

Hitters: Gorman Thomas, Cliff Pennington, Larry Bigbie, J.P. Arencibia, Joe Keough

Pitchers: Rick Sutcliffe, Todd Worrell, Jake Westbrook, Atlee Hammaker, Ian Kennedy

22. (Blue Jays)

Hitters: Craig Biggio, Rafael Palmeiro, Chet Lemon, Jayson Werth, Ricky Jordan

Pitchers: Bruce Hurst, Rick Helling, Gil Meche, Matt Thornton, Steve Karsay

23. (Cardinals)

Hitters: Jason Kendall, Mo Vaughn, Jacoby Ellsbury, Luis Alicea, Jeff Francoeur

Pitchers: Aaron Sele, Jeff D'Amico, Phil Hughes, Randy Scarberry, Dave Ford

24. (Red Sox)

Hitters: Rondell White, Brian Buchanan, Steve Nicosia, Chris Donnels, Bob Geren

Pitchers: Chad Billingsley, Terry Mulholland, Joe Blanton, Macay McBride, Kurt Ainsworth

25. (Rays)

Hitters: Chuck Knoblauch, Bill Buckner, Dion James, Bobby Crosby, Ed Sprague

Pitchers: Matt Cain, Dan Spillner, Matt Garza, Scott Elarton, John Wasdin

26. (Diamondbacks)

Hitters: Alan Trammell, Dave Henderson, Brent Gates, Mark Johnson, Todd Cruz

Pitchers: Dan Plesac, Jeremy Bonderman, Kelly Wunsch, Dan Serafini, Daniel Schlereth

27. (Brewers)

Hitters: Sergio Santos, Scott Stahoviak, Chip Ambres, Gary Green, Bill McGuire

Pitchers: Vida Blue, Pete Harnisch, Todd Jones, Tom Underwood, Mike Fetters

28. (Brewers)

Hitters: Michael Barrett, Darrin Jackson, Joe Nolan, Daric Barton, Colby Rasmus

Pitchers: Lee Smith, Norm Charlton, Gabe White, Daniel Bard, Jamey Wright

29. (Rangers)

Hitters: George Brett, Brian Jordan, Jay Payton, Ellis Valentine, Kevin Bass.

Pitchers: Adam Wainwright, Brian Fisher, Steve Mura, Joey McLaughlin, Kevin Morton

30. (Yankees)

Hitters: Mike Schmidt, Travis Fryman, Chris Sabo, Ricky Gutierrez, Mitch Maier

Pitchers: David Wells, Jerry Reuss, Terry Forster, Moose Haas, Noah Lowry

31. (Red Sox)

Hitters: Kirt Manwaring, Mike Sember, Tom Dodd [only three big leaguers]

Pitchers: Greg Maddux, Jarrod Washburn, J.P. Howell, Mike Thurman, Chris George

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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