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April 2, 2012 Resident Fantasy GeniusCommon Players on my 2012 Fantasy Teams
With my final draft completed late last week, draft season is officially over for me, and I’m ready for the season to begin! While we’re waiting for the first pitch (or at least the first pitch thrown in the United States), I thought it might be interesting to look at which players wound up on more than one of my teams. I’m playing in six experts leagues this year, so I had plenty of opportunities to draft a player multiple times.
Before we get started, it’s important to remember that just because a player wound up on several of my teams doesn't mean he was a "have to have" guy for me or that I was targeting him specifically. Take this list for what it's worth: Simply that these players, for one reason or another, wound up on my team multiple times. Some guys I had a feeling ahead of time would wind up on my team (like Boesch, Ludwick, and Encarnacion) while others merely happened to end up on my team through no real preconceived plan (like Holliday, Soto, Hernandez, and Rivera). Then there are others that I thought would be on more of my teams but, for whatever reason, aren't (Mark Reynolds, Brandon Morrow, and Adam Dunn, among many others). Hitters
Joe Benson was a reserve pick in both of my AL-only leagues. There is a lot of risk and a high chance of injury for most of the regulars in Minnesota, and there’s a solid chance Benson is up and starting in the Twins’ outfield by the middle of the season. If drafts were happening again today, Doumit might not be on as many of my teams. Now that Justin Morneau will DH, it will limit Doumit’s at-bats (at least until Morneau hits the disabled list). I’m hoping his flexibility and all of the previously mentioned Minnesota risk allows him to get 500 at-bats. Ditto Tyler Greene. It appeared for a while that he would be the everyday second baseman for St. Louis, but now Mike Matheny is saying he’ll begin the year splitting time with Daniel Descalso. Still a worthwhile NL-only pick, and there’s a lot of power/speed upside if he can wrestle playing time away. Helton and Chipper get no love as aging, injury-prone corner infielders. But they are still very talented, if unspectacular, players when they are on the field, and for the low prices they cost in NL-only leagues, I’m all over them. Love Upton’s combination of skills, and 40 home runs really wouldn’t surprise me. That’s not to say it’s my mean expectation, but it’s well within the realm of possibility. Bedard is going to get hurt—we all know this—but he’s healthy to start the year and is always fantastic when he’s on the field. If I can get 125 or 150 innings out of him, I’ll be a very happy fantasy owner. I love Dempster as a 3.75 ERA guy. Last year’s ERA was fluky, and despite most experts now paying attention to things like BABIP and expected-ERA indicators, he still came at a relative bargain. Erlin has an interesting combination of solid stuff, exceptional control, an easy path to the majors (it shouldn’t be too hard to replace a guy like Dustin Moseley if Erlin plays well at Triple-A), and a great ballpark awaiting him. He has a lot of upside as a reserve pick in Tout and FSIC (and I just missed getting him in LABR). I’m not sure why people seem to have soured on Rivera, but I still have him as my top closer in baseball, and when he comes for just $4 more than Kyle Farnsworth in DraftDay, how can I pass him up? I just saw him as a pure value play in my two AL-only leagues.
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On Erlin (and Wieland and Kelly) --- dig him, drafted him, but now am starting to second-guess myself. I worry that this is a holding-pattern year. A year in which The Pods are content to appear-to-be-competing but are really just letting the new kids marinate.
What do you think? Is the mediocrity of Moseley, Richards and Bass already baked in --- the price they're willing to pay to get to 2013 and beyond? Reading between the lines, I get the feeling this might be KG's take.
Can these guys pitch themselves out of a job or do Erlin et al not also have to force their way into one?
Well, there's only so long you can pretend to contend, and I doubt the Padres are able to do it for long. PECOTA has them pegged for a .490 winning percentage.
I think it'll take a little of both -- a guy like Moseley playing himself out and Erlin playing himself in -- but that's not too much to really ask for.
Thanks, D.