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March 12, 2012

The Process

How Much Do Early Pitcher Promotions Matter?

by Bradley Ankrom

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As part of last week’s Prospects on the Bubble series, we looked at hitters who had played full seasons at advanced Class-A as 17- or 18-year-olds. A number of readers asked about pitchers who have done the same thing, and the results (using a minimum of 100 innings pitched) are significantly less impressive in terms of both quantity and quality.

The hitters group was headlined by Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr. and Roberto Alomar and featured three others—Tim Raines, Ivan Rodriguez, and Gary Sheffield—who posted career WARPs over 50 and had legitimate Cooperstown cases themselves. The amount of major-league success achieved by the precocious pitchers pales in comparison, as only Dwight Gooden was able to earn more than 50 career WARP.

Pitchers <= Age 18 with >= 100 IP in Advanced Class A Since 1979

Pitcher	Yr	Age	Org	League	Results
Mike Witt	1979	18	LAA	CAL	8-10, 5.11 ERA, 94/70 SO/BB, 141 IP
Storm Davis	1980	18	BAL	FSL	9-12, 3.52 ERA, 90/55 SO/BB, 151 IP
Roy Smith	1980	18	PHI	CAR	17-8, 2.60 ERA, 134/63 SO/BB, 163 IP
Francisco Oliveras	1981	18	BAL	FSL	6-5, 3.83 ERA, 80/48 SO/BB, 108 IP
Jose Rijo	1983	18	NYA	FSL	15-5, 1.68 ERA, 152/43 SO/BB, 160.1 IP
Dwight Gooden	1983	18	NYN	CAR	19-4, 2.50 ERA, 300/112 SO/BB, 191 IP
John Mitchell	1984	18	BOS	FSL	16-9, 3.14 ERA, 109/66 SO/BB, 183.2 IP
Candy Sierra	1984	17	SDN	CAL	11-4, 3.73 ERA, 106/57 SO/BB, 135.1 IP
Ramon Martinez	1986	18	LAN	CAL	4-8, 4.75 ERA, 78/63 SO/BB, 106 IP
Brent Knackert	1988	18	LAN	FSL	10-8, 3.17 ERA, 78/46 SO/BB, 142 IP
Rick Gorecki	1992	18	LAN	CAL	11-7, 4.05 ERA, 115/90 SO/BB, 129 IP
Kym Ashworth	1994	17	LAN	CAL	6-7, 3.95 ERA, 109/69 SO/BB, 127.2 IP
Kym Ashworth	1995	18	LAN	CAL	7-4, 3.53 ERA, 97/64 SO/BB, 120 IP
Hugo Pivaral	1995	18	LAN	CAL	6-4, 4.63 ERA, 89/43 SO/BB, 103 IP
Rick Ankiel	1998	18	SLN	CAR	9-6, 2.79 ERA, 181/38 SO/BB, 126 IP
Jerome Williams	2000	18	SFN	CAL	7-6, 2.94 ERA, 115/48 SO/BB, 125.2 IP
Jacobo Sequea	2000	18	BAL	CAR	9-11, 5.09 ERA, 94/58 SO/BB, 123.2 IP
Greg Miller	2003	18	LAN	FSL	11-4, 2.49 ERA, 111/41 SO/BB, 115.2 IP

CAL = California League; CAR = Carolina League; FSL = Florida State League.

Miller and Pivaral succumbed to shoulder injuries, while Ashworth and Sequea simply didn’t develop, but the other 13 pitchers all reached the major leagues. Not surprisingly, that 23.5 percent attrition rate is significantly higher than that of the position players (4.5 percent) examined in last week’s article.

Pitcher	Yrs	Results	WARP
Gooden	16	194-112, 3.51 ERA, 2293/954 SO/BB, 2800.2 IP	52.0
Rijo	14	116-91, 3.24 ERA, 1606/663 SO/BB, 1880 IP	38.6
Martinez	14	135-88, 3.67 ERA, 1427/795 SO/BB, 1895.2 IP	20.8
Davis	13	113-96, 4.02 ERA, 1048/687 SO/BB, 1780.2 IP	15.7
Witt	12	117-116, 3.83 ERA, 1373/713 SO/BB, 2108.1 IP	10.9
Ankiel	3	13-10, 3.90 ERA, 269/130 SO/BB, 242 IP	5.3
Smith	8	30-31, 4.60 ERA, 320/202 SO/BB, 618.1 IP	3.9
Oliveras	4	11-15, 3.71 ERA, 130/68 SO/BB, 235 IP	0.6
Williams	6	27-29, 4.20 ERA, 286/186 SO/BB, 469.1 IP	0.2
Mitchell	5	9-14, 4.35 ERA, 107/93 SO/BB, 240 IP	0.2
Sierra	1	0-1, 5.53 ERA, 24/12 SO/BB, 27.2 IP	0.1
Knackert	2	1-2, 7.04 ERA, 33/28 SO/BB, 47.1 IP	-0.1
Gorecki	2	2-2, 7.54 ERA, 13/16 SO/BB, 22.2 IP	-0.2

For the pitchers whose ascensions were not ended prematurely by injuries, were there any indicators in their age-18 seasons that foretold their future success?

Gooden (2.68), Rijo (3.53), and Ankiel (4.76) posted the top three strikeout-to-walk ratios in the group, but two pitchers who ranked among the top five in career WARP, Martinez (1.24) and Witt (1.34), ranked last and third-from-last, respectively. Martinez and Witt both pitched in the high-offense California League, a much less forgiving environment than the Carolina and Florida State Leagues. Given the disparities between the leagues, perhaps it’s better to look at each pitcher’s performance relative to league average:

			Statistics Relative to League Average
Pitcher	Yr	League	ERA	RA	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BR/9	SO/9	BB/9	SO/BB
Witt	1979	CAL	-23%	-20%	-9%	-13%	-43%	-9%	-21%	-1%	-22%
Davis	1980	FSL	-17%	-25%	0%	-13%	+36%	0%	-9%	+24%	+20%
Smith	1980	CAR	+20%	+20%	+25%	+30%	+5%	+25%	+11%	+16%	+33%
Oliveras	1981	FSL	-19%	-13%	-4%	-2%	-36%	-4%	+5%	-7%	-2%
Rijo	1983	FSL	+46%	+47%	+22%	+13%	-10%	+22%	+20%	+40%	+98%
Gooden	1983	CAR	+35%	+42%	+13%	+33%	+27%	+13%	+85%	-25%	+48%
Sierra	1984	CAL	-18%	-8%	-2%	-11%	-21%	-3%	-4%	+13%	+10%
Mitchell	1984	FSL	+8%	+7%	+15%	+8%	-58%	+15%	-12%	+28%	+23%
Martinez	1986	CAL	-18%	-24%	-16%	-12%	+55%	-16%	-2%	-25%	-21%
Knackert	1988	FSL	-11%	-1%	-3%	-8%	+7%	-4%	-23%	+9%	+15%
Gorecki	1992	CAL	-1%	+4%	-12%	+7%	-48%	-12%	+20%	-56%	-23%
Ashworth	1994	CAL	-2%	+6%	+4%	+10%	+14%	-5%	+3%	-41%	-27%
Ashworth	1995	CAL	+14%	+14%	-4%	-9%	+14%	-3%	-1%	-35%	-25%
Ankiel	1998	CAR	+23%	+25%	+21%	+23%	+14%	+21%	+66%	+13%	+90%
Williams	2000	CAL	+33%	+29%	+25%	+30%	+38%	+25%	+8%	+16%	+29%
Sequea	2000	CAR	-31%	-25%	-6%	-2%	-27%	-2%	-9%	-15%	-21%

So much for that. Even when compared to league averages, Witt and Martinez rank toward the bottom in nearly every category, while pitchers who experienced less major-league success (Smith, Williams, etc.) are found near the top.

* * *

As pitchers get closer to the major leagues, one would expect the predictive value of their performances to become more reliable. With that in mind, let’s look at players who threw at least 100 innings as either 19-year-olds in Double-A or 20-year-olds in Triple-A, a group that consists of 35 distinct pitchers and 43 seasons:

Pitchers Who Have Accumulated >= 100 IP in Double-A at Age 19 or Triple-A at Age 20

Pitcher	Yr	Age	Org	League	Results
Marty Bystrom	1979	20	PHI	AA	9-5, 4.08 ERA, 108/69 SO/BB, 172 IP
Bob James	1979	20	MON	AA	8-13, 6.68 ERA, 122/123 SO/BB, 132 IP
Scott Holman	1979	20	NYN	IL	13-7, 1.99 ERA, 62/51 SO/BB, 149 IP
Mike Morgan	1979	19	OAK	PCL	5-5, 3.48 ERA, 42/49 SO/BB, 101 IP
Tim Conroy	1979	19	OAK	EL	7-14, 5.22 ERA, 106/119 SO/BB, 138 IP
Dave Beard	1979	19	OAK	EL	10-14, 3.02 ERA, 111/63 SO/BB, 191 IP
Rich Barnes	1979	19	CHA	SL	8-8, 4.19 ERA, 91/86 SO/BB, 131 IP
Mike Jones	1979	19	KCA	SL	9-13, 4.10 ERA, 116/100 SO/BB, 167 IP
Rich Barnes	1980	20	CHA	AA	3-9, 4.61 ERA, 59/93 SO/BB, 123 IP
Mike Morgan	1980	20	OAK	PCL	4-9, 6.97 ERA, 46/77 SO/BB, 115 IP
Mark Davis	1980	19	PHI	EL	19-6, 2.47 ERA, 185/75 SO/BB, 193 IP
Roy Smith	1981	19	PHI	EL	11-8, 4.42 ERA, 117/97 SO/BB, 161 IP
Storm Davis	1981	19	BAL	SL	14-10, 3.47 ERA, 119/65 SO/BB, 187 IP
Francisco Oliveras	1982	19	BAL	SL	10-9, 3.55 ERA, 97/64 SO/BB, 162.1 IP
Don Schulze	1983	20	CHN	AA	11-9, 4.27 ERA, 103/63 SO/BB, 168.2 IP
Mark Grant	1983	19	SFN	TL	10-8, 3.66 ERA, 159/71 SO/BB, 186.2 IP
Mark Grant	1984	20	SFN	PCL	5-7, 3.96 ERA, 78/61 SO/BB, 111.1 IP
Jose Rijo	1985	20	OAK	PCL	7-10, 2.90 ERA, 179/108 SO/BB, 149 IP
John Mitchell	1985	19	BOS	EL	12-8, 2.70 ERA, 108/61 SO/BB, 190.1 IP
Greg Maddux	1986	20	CHN	AA	10-1, 3.02 ERA, 65/30 SO/BB, 128.1 IP
John Mitchell	1986	20	NYN	IL	12-9, 3.40 ERA, 83/59 SO/BB, 172.1 IP
Johnny Guzman	1990	19	OAK	SL	5-6, 3.58 ERA, 63/54 SO/BB, 105.2 IP
Pedro Martinez	1992	20	LAN	PCL	7-6, 3.81 ERA, 124/57 SO/BB, 125.1 IP
Rick Gorecki	1993	19	LAN	TL	6-9, 3.35 ERA, 118/62 SO/BB, 156 IP
Rick Gorecki	1994	20	LAN	PCL	8-6, 5.07 ERA, 73/60 SO/BB, 103 IP
Jose Pett	1995	19	TOR	SL	8-9, 4.26 ERA, 89/48 SO/BB, 141.2 IP
Jose Pett	1996	20	TOR	IL	2-9, 5.82 ERA, 50/42 SO/BB, 109.2 IP
Roy Halladay	1997	20	TOR	IL	7-10, 4.58 ERA, 64/53 SO/BB, 125.2 IP
Ruben Quevedo	1999	20	ATL	IL	6-5, 5.36 ERA, 98/34 SO/BB, 105.2 IP
Matt Riley	1999	19	BAL	EL	10-6, 3.22 ERA, 131/42 SO/BB, 125.2 IP
Ryan Anderson	1999	19	SEA	EL	9-13, 4.50 ERA, 162/86 SO/BB, 134 IP
Alan Webb	1999	19	DET	SL	9-9, 4.95 ERA, 88/64 SO/BB, 140 IP
Jon Garland	2000	20	CHN	IL	9-2, 2.26 ERA, 63/32 SO/BB, 103.2 IP
Ryan Anderson	2000	20	SEA	PCL	5-8, 3.98 ERA, 146/55 SO/BB, 104 IP
Carlos Zambrano	2001	20	CHN	PCL	10-5, 3.88 ERA, 155/68 SO/BB, 150.2 IP
Jerome Williams	2001	19	SFN	TL	9-7, 3.95 ERA, 84/34 SO/BB, 130 IP
Jerome Williams	2002	20	SFN	PCL	6-11, 3.58 ERA, 130/50 SO/BB, 160.2 IP
Edgar Gonzalez	2003	20	ARI	PCL	8-7, 3.75 ERA, 69/28 SO/BB, 129.2 IP
Edwin Jackson	2003	19	LAN	SL	7-7, 3.70 ERA, 157/53 SO/BB, 148.1 IP
Matt Cain	2005	20	SFN	PCL	10-5, 4.39 ERA, 176/73 SO/BB, 145.2 IP
Jordan Lyles	2010	19	HOU	TL	7-9, 3.12 ERA, 93/27 SO/BB, 127 IP
Julio Teheran	2011	20	ATL	IL	15-3, 2.55 ERA, 119/46 SO/BB, 144.2 IP

AA = American Association (AAA); IL = International League (AAA); PCL = Pacific Coast League (AAA); EL = Eastern League (AA); SL = Southern League (AA); TL = Texas League (AA).

Not surprisingly, the majority (91 percent) of the players to perform as 19-year-olds in Double-A or 20-year-olds in Triple-A reached the major leagues. Ryan Anderson and Jose Pett fell victim to chronic injuries, while Alan Webb found himself pitching in the independent Northern League by the time he was 21.

This group produced two sure-fire Hall of Famers in Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, as well as Roy Halladay, who could find himself enshrined in Cooperstown with a few more Cy Young-caliber seasons. Several pitchers are still active, but as things currently stand:

Career WARP for Pitchers Who Have Accumulated >= 100 IP in Double-A at Age 19 or Triple-A at Age 20

Group	Ct	Pct	Notables
>= 50 Career WARP	2	6%	Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez
10-49 Career WARP	6	17%	Jose Rijo, Roy Halladay, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Cain, Jon Garland
0-9.9 Career WARP	20	57%	Mark Davis, Mike Morgan, Edwin Jackson, Jerome Williams, Jordan Lyles
< 0 Career WARP	4	11%	Julio Teheran, Rick Gorecki, Ruben Quevedo, Matt Riley
DNP Major Leagues	3	9%	Ryan Anderson, Jose Pett, Alan Webb

The statistics produced by the pitchers in this group were largely irrelevant, not unlike those found in the advanced Class-A hurlers studied earlier. Six of the seven pitchers who struck out more than 8.5 batters per nine innings earned a WARP of at least 7.5, a group consisting of Pedro Martinez (67.8 WARP), Rijo (38.6), Zambrano (27.7), Cain (18.8), Davis (9.3), and Jackson (7.5). You can download a spreadsheet (.xls) that details each player’s performance here (.csv).

* * *

What can pitcher performance relative to league and age tell us? As it turns out, very little. Pitchers who get promoted early have a reasonable chance of reaching the major leagues, as their youth will afford them plenty of opportunities assuming their arms don’t fall off, but the predictive value of the numbers they produce is close to null. Every now and then, a Matt Riley will strike out more than a batter per inning with a shiny ERA and won-lost record as a 19-year-old in Double-A, while a Roy Halladay will struggle with his command as a 20-year-old in Triple-A.

Development is about making adjustments and responding to the adjustments made to you, and every player has his own developmental schedule. Carlos Zambrano was a valuable major-league contributor by the time he was 21, but Halladay wasn’t worth more than a single win above replacement until he was a 24-year-old in his fourth big-league season. At age 23, Zambrano spun a 4.9 WARP season, while Halladay went 4-7 with a 10.64 ERA in 67.2 major-league innings and wasn’t much better in Triple-A. Whose career would you prefer?

Related Content: Prospects, Pitching Prospects, Pedro Martinez, Mike Witt

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Collateral Damage: Bat... (03/12)

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