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October 8, 2011

BP Unfiltered

NLCS Umpire Charts and Data

by Mike Fast

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I worked up some umpire data for Mike Ferrin and the MLB Network Radio show for the National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals, and I thought some of you might be interested in seeing the data.

One of the umpires on the NLCS crew is Bill Miller, who has had the biggest strike zone among regular MLB umpires in the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Miller has called more strikes outside the average strike zone called by MLB umpires ("extra strikes") and fewer balls inside the average strike zone ("extra balls") than any other umpire. Here is where the other NLCS umpires rank by that measure, as compared to their peers.

Ump extra strikes and extra balls

Here is the data for all the regular umpires 2010 to 2011, ordered from biggest strike zone to smallest.

Umpire	Pitches	Correct%	Extra Ball%	Extra Strike%	Delta
Bill Miller	9705	90.2%	4.7%	5.1%	-0.4%
Doug Eddings	9892	89.6%	5.5%	4.9%	0.6%
Vic Carapazza	5512	90.9%	4.9%	4.3%	0.6%
Bob Davidson	10525	89.2%	5.8%	5.0%	0.8%
Wally Bell	9328	89.8%	5.5%	4.7%	0.8%
Brian Runge	7647	90.1%	5.5%	4.4%	1.0%
Ted Barrett	9551	89.5%	5.8%	4.7%	1.1%
Jeff Nelson	10128	90.6%	5.4%	4.0%	1.4%
Tim Welke	10020	89.8%	5.8%	4.4%	1.5%
John Hirschbeck	8301	89.2%	6.2%	4.7%	1.5%
Gary Darling	9885	90.2%	5.7%	4.1%	1.7%
Paul Emmel	8052	89.7%	6.0%	4.2%	1.8%
Mike Estabrook	8430	89.7%	6.1%	4.3%	1.8%
Brian Gorman	9645	90.0%	5.9%	4.1%	1.8%
Rob Drake	9590	89.0%	6.5%	4.5%	1.9%
Dan Iassogna	9389	90.1%	6.0%	4.0%	2.0%
Ron Kulpa	10129	89.5%	6.3%	4.2%	2.0%
Phil Cuzzi	10044	89.7%	6.2%	4.1%	2.1%
Fieldin Culbreth	9756	91.1%	5.5%	3.4%	2.2%
Brian O'Nora	9364	90.1%	6.1%	3.8%	2.3%
Tim Timmons	9337	89.6%	6.3%	4.1%	2.3%
Jim Reynolds	8589	90.0%	6.2%	3.9%	2.3%
Jeff Kellogg	9574	89.2%	6.6%	4.2%	2.3%
Mike Everitt	10176	89.9%	6.2%	3.9%	2.3%
Marvin Hudson	9472	89.8%	6.3%	3.9%	2.4%
Dan Bellino	8339	89.8%	6.3%	3.9%	2.4%
Laz Diaz	9695	90.2%	6.1%	3.7%	2.4%
Larry Vanover	8904	88.9%	6.7%	4.3%	2.4%
Eric Cooper	9472	88.9%	6.8%	4.3%	2.5%
Andy Fletcher	9323	89.3%	6.6%	4.0%	2.6%
Jerry Meals	9672	90.5%	6.1%	3.4%	2.7%
Hunter Wendelstedt	9589	89.8%	6.5%	3.7%	2.7%
Marty Foster	8299	90.6%	6.1%	3.3%	2.8%
Jim Wolf	9335	90.6%	6.1%	3.3%	2.8%
Mark Carlson	9549	88.9%	7.0%	4.1%	2.8%
Mike Winters	10346	88.9%	7.0%	4.1%	2.9%
D.J. Reyburn	7041	90.9%	6.0%	3.1%	2.9%
Bill Welke	8978	90.4%	6.2%	3.3%	2.9%
Dana DeMuth	10173	90.4%	6.3%	3.4%	2.9%
Gary Cederstrom	9850	89.7%	6.7%	3.7%	3.0%
Dale Scott	10263	88.7%	7.2%	4.1%	3.0%
Mike Muchlinski	6110	89.8%	6.6%	3.6%	3.1%
Angel Hernandez	9967	89.5%	6.8%	3.7%	3.1%
Lance Barksdale	8099	89.2%	7.0%	3.9%	3.1%
CB Bucknor	10081	89.0%	7.1%	3.9%	3.2%
Mike DiMuro	9625	89.8%	6.7%	3.4%	3.3%
Brian Knight	8862	90.0%	6.6%	3.4%	3.3%
James Hoye	9438	89.8%	6.8%	3.5%	3.3%
Ed Rapuano	10256	89.7%	6.8%	3.5%	3.3%
Tony Randazzo	9799	90.2%	6.6%	3.2%	3.4%
Chris Guccione	9802	90.7%	6.3%	3.0%	3.4%
Bruce Dreckman	9286	89.9%	6.7%	3.3%	3.4%
Paul Nauert	7980	89.6%	6.9%	3.5%	3.4%
Joe West	10646	89.9%	6.7%	3.3%	3.4%
Kerwin Danley	10065	89.9%	6.8%	3.3%	3.5%
Jerry Layne	9269	89.4%	7.2%	3.4%	3.8%
Jim Joyce	6140	89.3%	7.3%	3.4%	3.9%
Adrian Johnson	9949	88.9%	7.5%	3.6%	4.0%
Alan Porter	5407	90.0%	7.0%	3.0%	4.0%
Todd Tichenor	9729	89.4%	7.4%	3.2%	4.2%
Alfonso Marquez	10059	89.5%	7.3%	3.2%	4.2%
Tom Hallion	9295	90.2%	7.0%	2.8%	4.2%
Ed Hickox	9528	89.4%	7.5%	3.1%	4.4%
Angel Campos	6852	89.0%	7.7%	3.3%	4.4%
Derryl Cousins	9698	89.5%	7.5%	3.1%	4.4%
Sam Holbrook	8900	89.0%	7.7%	3.3%	4.4%
Mark Wegner	6283	90.0%	7.3%	2.7%	4.6%
Scott Barry	9193	89.0%	7.8%	3.2%	4.6%
Greg Gibson	9793	89.3%	7.6%	3.0%	4.6%
Chad Fairchild	9368	88.3%	8.2%	3.5%	4.8%
Mike Reilly	5160	88.4%	8.3%	3.3%	5.0%
Tim Tschida	8016	88.4%	8.4%	3.2%	5.2%
Tim McClelland	9623	89.5%	7.9%	2.6%	5.3%
Gerry Davis	9344	89.1%	8.3%	2.6%	5.7%
Paul Schrieber	5880	89.2%	8.3%	2.5%	5.7%

We can also look at how the umpires' strike zones shifted horizontally with left-handed and right-handed batters at the plate. Here is how the NLCS umpires compare to their peers in how many strike calls they made off the plate outside past the average umpire's strike zone on pitches between 2.1 and 3.1 feet high.

ump outside strikes to LHB and RHB

Here is the data for all the regular umpires from the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Umpire	LHB Outside Strike%	RHB Outside Strike%
Tim McClelland	1%	3%
Eric Cooper	1%	3%
Phil Cuzzi	2%	7%
Chad Fairchild	2%	4%
Larry Vanover	3%	10%
Angel Campos	3%	1%
Mike Everitt	3%	5%
Mike Muchlinski	3%	5%
Alfonso Marquez	3%	6%
Alan Porter	4%	4%
Paul Schrieber	4%	0%
Lance Barksdale	4%	2%
Angel Hernandez	4%	4%
Bill Miller	4%	5%
Gerry Davis	4%	4%
Mark Wegner	4%	3%
Gary Cederstrom	4%	6%
Paul Nauert	4%	5%
Jim Wolf	5%	4%
Sam Holbrook	5%	9%
Brian Knight	5%	7%
Dale Scott	5%	10%
CB Bucknor	5%	15%
Jeff Nelson	5%	6%
Vic Carapazza	5%	7%
Paul Emmel	5%	6%
James Hoye	5%	5%
D.J. Reyburn	6%	5%
Tim Tschida	6%	1%
Bruce Dreckman	6%	7%
Rob Drake	6%	14%
Scott Barry	6%	7%
Jerry Meals	6%	9%
Todd Tichenor	6%	3%
Dan Iassogna	6%	9%
Jim Joyce	7%	7%
Derryl Cousins	7%	4%
Jeff Kellogg	7%	3%
Mike DiMuro	7%	6%
Marvin Hudson	7%	7%
Marty Foster	7%	6%
Tim Timmons	7%	6%
Bill Welke	7%	5%
Ron Kulpa	7%	7%
Tony Randazzo	7%	1%
Mark Carlson	7%	4%
Dana DeMuth	7%	6%
Mike Estabrook	8%	8%
Greg Gibson	8%	3%
Ed Hickox	8%	3%
Dan Bellino	8%	11%
Jim Reynolds	8%	7%
Joe West	8%	5%
Adrian Johnson	9%	2%
Brian O'Nora	9%	13%
Doug Eddings	9%	6%
Chris Guccione	9%	8%
Jerry Layne	9%	13%
Mike Winters	9%	9%
Brian Runge	9%	11%
Andy Fletcher	10%	13%
Tom Hallion	10%	7%
Laz Diaz	10%	7%
Ed Rapuano	11%	6%
Gary Darling	11%	5%
Ted Barrett	12%	14%
Fieldin Culbreth	12%	6%
Brian Gorman	13%	5%
Hunter Wendelstedt	14%	9%
Kerwin Danley	15%	5%
Tim Welke	16%	9%
Bob Davidson	16%	9%
John Hirschbeck	18%	18%
Wally Bell	18%	6%

Finally, here are strike zone charts showing all the ball and strike calls made by the six umpires on the NLCS crew during the 2010 and 2011 seasons. These charts are from the umpire and catcher perspective.

RHB called pitches by Gary Darling

LHB called pitches by Gary Darling

RHB called pitches by Mike Everitt

LHB called pitches by Mike Everitt

RHB called pitches by Sam Holbrook

LHB called pitches by Sam Holbrook

RHB called pitches by Bill Miller

LHB called pitches by Bill Miller

RHB called pitches by Tim Timmons

LHB called pitches by Tim Timmons

RHB called pitches by Mike Winters

LHB called pitches by Mike Winters

Reference articles:

The Real Strike Zone

The Real Strike Zone, Part 2

Mike Fast is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Mike's other articles. You can contact Mike by clicking here

Related Content: Scott Cousins, Tim McClelland, Tim Timmons, Phil Cuzzi, Jim Joyce, Mike Dimuro

7 comments have been left for this article.

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Tynan

(24433)

Wow, this is awesome!

Oct 09, 2011 06:49 AM

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rating: 4

Randy Brown

(189)

Outstanding. I was wondering about Tim Welke's "usual" strike zone after last night's ALCS Game 1. Apparently the thimble was in use for one night only.

Oct 09, 2011 07:10 AM

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rating: 0

BillJohnson

(2635)

The strike zones for left handed hitters are so consistently skewed that I wonder if there's a bug in the data presentation here. If that's really the way calls are going, then St. Louis, with its numerous LH hitters and switch hitters who will bat LH against the predominantly right-handed Milwaukee pitching, may be screwed. So, of course, will be Prince Fielder (today's game notwithstanding), but having one guy victimized by a weird strike zone is not as bad as four or five, which St. Louis may have in some situations.

Are you _sure_ those data are right, Mike? That just seems like an extraordinarily severe preference for the outside strike to lefties that isn't nearly as overwhelming for righties.

Oct 09, 2011 18:05 PM

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rating: 0

Mike Fast

BP staff

(4387)

Yes, I'm sure the data are right. I'm also far from the only person to observe this. John Walsh was the first, as far as I know, back in 2007:
The Eye of the Umpire

Oct 09, 2011 18:56 PM

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Mike Fast

BP staff

(4387)

By the way, if you look at the reference articles at the end of the post, particularly the first one, I discuss fairly extensively some possible reasons for the LHB strike zone shift. And it is mostly just a shifted zone, not a bigger zone. So I don't know that LHB are disadvantaged in having to defend the outside of the plate more and the inside of the plate less. LHB stand a couple inches closer to the plate anyhow, so it more or less evens out.

Oct 09, 2011 18:59 PM

link

BillJohnson

(2635)

Wow. Thanks for the followup. I'll look at the articles.

I'm not sure, however, that I agree that the data support the claim that it is a shifted zone, not a bigger one. If a pitcher knows he's going to get the call four inches outside, he'll avoid the inside strike like it was a Uwe Boll movie. The data seem to bear this out: compare the density of dots (red or green) inside the strike zone near the inside corner to the density beyond the outside corner. Then repeat the exercise for RH hitters. Of course, it would be better to do this looking at actual, numerical information rather than density of dots. Is that available anywhere?

Oct 09, 2011 19:17 PM

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rating: 0

Mike Fast

BP staff

(4387)

Bill, I'm not claiming that everything perfectly evens out for LHB and RHB in terms of the strike zone, just that it mostly does so.

The horizontal points at which 50% of taken pitches are called strikes is -1.20 and +0.81 feet for LHB and -1.03 and +1.00 feet for RHB.

Now, of course, as you point out, the pitch distribution matters, too, not just the 50% point. But the average pitch location that LHB see is about 2.4 inches farther outside than the average pitch location to RHB, and the strike zone is shifted by about 2.2 or 2.3 inches. There's a bit of a chicken and egg problem there for determining cause and effect, but for simply describing what we observe, the strike zone shift follows almost exactly with the pitch distribution.

As to whether this information is available anywhere, I don't think it is, other than in the raw PITCHf/x format. (There have been a lot of articles written about the strike zone, so I might be forgetting one where someone has shared some of the pertinent data, but all those authors were basically doing what I'm doing, which is downloading the raw PITCHf/x data and putting it into their own database for analysis.)

Oct 09, 2011 21:45 PM

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