September 28, 2011

Between The Numbers

Playoff odds updates

by Colin Wyers

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Because of the tight wild card races this year (both are tied going into the last day of the season), we've made some enhancements to the playoff odds reports:

• For games relevant to the wild card, instead of using a combination of third-order wins and season projections, we've done single-game projections. Jay Jaffe, R.J. Anderson and Tommy Bennett put together pitching rosters and batting lineups for the teams in question - so for now, the playoff odds know that Tampa is facing Scranton's finest instead of the team that won the AL East. We'll update these odds again tomorrow once we know official lineups and the like.
• Instead of doing a simple coin-flip for a one-game playoff, I've incorporated home-field advantage for Tampa and St. Louis, who own the best head-to-head records in their respective wild-card races.

The second adjustment does not favor the Red Sox, shaving enough points off their already shaky lead to push them below 50% to win the Wild Card. The biggest tumble of the night was the Braves, who went from a 70% shot at the playoffs to under 50% as well.

What you really want to know is, what's the likelihood of a one-game playoff? Or better yet, two of them? Boy, am I glad you asked:

We're currently above 80% to enjoy some extra regular-season baseball, and there's a healthy 30% chance that we get not one but two bonus games. You can hardly script it better than this, folks.

Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cwyers
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